Sunday, April 19, 2026

A heads-up: a new Scot Goes Pop-commissioned opinion poll will be published before election day

So a small announcement - I have commissioned Scot Goes Pop's first opinion poll since the two that were done back-to-back during the SNP leadership election in early 2023.  For cost reasons, it's not going to be the sort of all-singing, all-dancing poll I used to commission back in the day with eight, nine or ten questions - it'll be a bit smaller-scale than that, but I've chosen the questions for maximum impact and I don't think you'll be disappointed by them.

The reason I stopped commissioning polls was because the fundraising efforts ran out of steam, and I had to start concentrating more on general fundraising for the blog if I was going to stay afloat at all.  However, it's been three years since the last poll, and it'll potentially be another three years until the next major election takes place in Scotland, so I don't think there's much doubt that if I'm going to do another one at any point, now is the moment to do it.  It'll be a few days at least before the results are ready, but I thought I'd make an advance announcement to help with the publicising of my new polling fundraiser, which I hope will not only assist with the costs of the current poll, but if we're really lucky potentially also build up a small war-chest for a future poll at a moment of maximum impact.

Here is the pitch I've written for the fundraiser on the GoFundMe page

Hi there, my name is James Kelly, and I write the pro-independence Scot Goes Pop blog, which spends much of its time covering opinion polls.

Polls can shape much of the narrative of any election campaign, and that leaves us with a problem in Scotland because most polls are commissioned by unionist media clients. The media don't, of course, decide the results of those polls, but they do decide which issues are and aren't worth asking about, and also what emphasis each result should be given at the time of publication. It's become increasingly frequent over the last couple of years, for example, for the results on the standard Yes/No question about Scottish independence to be totally buried in the reporting - and doubtless it's just an astounding coincidence that this has happened at precisely the moment that Yes has moved into a clear lead in the polling average.

Between 2020 and 2023, I was fortunate enough to be able to offer a corrective to this problem on my website Scot Goes Pop. Roughly every four months during that period, I was able to commission a poll from a variety of reputable polling firms affiliated to the British Polling Council, and to ask the questions that we in the independence movement wanted asked, not the ones that unionist journalists and politicians wanted asked. It wasn't easy, because polls are very expensive, but I was able to do it with your help.

Some of those polls were genuine landmarks. Remember that extraordinary period between mid-2020 and early 2021 when every single independence poll showed a Yes majority? The very first poll in that unbroken sequence was a Panelbase poll commissioned by Scot Goes Pop in June 2020. A few months later, another Scot Goes Pop-commissioned poll showed the largest Yes lead in any Panelbase poll ever. Supplementary results from the polls showed, among other things, that voters want Scotland to join the international treaty banning nuclear weapons, and think it would be appropriate to use a scheduled election to seek a mandate for independence if the option of a referendum is closed off.

I haven't commissioned a poll for three years because the fundraising efforts ran out of steam. However, if there was ever going to be a moment to have a new poll, that moment is right now - we're in the middle of a crucial election campaign, and there potentially won't be another major election for three years. I've therefore taken the bull by the horns and commissioned a new poll.

I'd like to ask for your help, not only in funding this new poll, but potentially raising enough to run another poll in the future at a moment of maximum impact. So if you have £10 or £20 to spare, this could be a really good-value-for-money, high-impact way of positively influencing the political narrative in Scotland. Many thanks in advance to anyone who chooses to contribute.

Click here if you'd like to donate.

If you don't want to donate by card on the fundraiser page, there are two other options available.  Direct PayPal donations can be made to my PayPal email account, which is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

If you want to distinguish the donation from the general fundraising for Scot Goes Pop, just add a note saying "for the poll" or whatever.

Bank transfers are the other possibility.  If you'd like to do that, contact me for the details at my contact email address, which is:  icehouse.250@gmail.com

13 comments:

  1. Happily donated James. I'd suggest throwing a quick YouTube video up if you can. Since the youtube move I stopped checking out the blog as regularly until I realised you were posting here again and I'm sure many others will have done the same.

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  2. So we have the bbc promoting not to vote individuals on this morning. Personally it sounded like a scunnered Tory who attacked SNP, Labour , Reform. Why would I be interested in someone who is there to talk down the election. Oops - SNP get a majority- can’t have independence after all not many voted. Those who didn’t vote must be British.

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  3. Are you going to cover the More In Common poll? I saw Scottish Skier on WGD saying it was a flawed poll, so that's a good indication that it wasn't great for the SNP.

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    1. I'm not sure if you're KC on a daily trolling spree or whether that's a genuine question, but if it's the latter: I do hope to cover the More In Common poll, but so far today I've been writing a constituency profile and I have a few other things on tonight, so it may not be totally straightforward to fit it in, but I shall try. No conspiracy theories if I don't manage it, please.

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    2. There's psephology, there's Kellnerology, then there's Prof. Sir. Curtice. But only when you reach all the way up to Skier have you found the gold standard in reading opinion polls.

      No offence to our host, but you don’t have the curly wurly, breathtaking excitement of Skier Charts. Onwards and up-up-up-up a bit more-up-up-upwards!

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  4. Mmm, in fairness that SNP political broadcast (I usually switch off) did put Independence at the centre of them making the best of limited powers with even the NHS being affected by Westminster's daylight robbery of our energy. Whereas in 2024 Independence was a dirty word to him - and the SNP.

    The jury is still out. He needs to talk about the HOW of the referendum, and no "It's a secret".

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    1. Yes, most unionists do switch off SNP broadcasts.

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    2. Sturgeon's complete ban on talking about independence put me right off voting for them, so obviously I’m keen to hear them grasp the thistle. And yes, I've similar issues with "top secret plans we cannae tell you because it's still hush hush."

      But when you picture the SNP actually describing all the "unilateral" moves the next Scotgov would have to take to force the issue "against Westminster's will", it gets a bit stark and worrying for many folk. Sure, committed Yessers would love a "supposedly illegal referendum" even if Police Scotland were in the impossibly awkward spot where London's top court was telling them to arrest the lot of us, like it's Catalonia.

      That’s not to say that a "wildcat referendum" could never happen, but rather it's how we get from here to there that brings people along with us, and the institutions like the police and local authorities we would need to run it.

      There are other routes, of course. But all of them soon lead to direct confrontation with the British government. Are we up for it? Some of us are. But Scotland needs most of all of us, when the time comes.

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    3. I don't think Jeremy and Venetia with the alpaca farm in Dumfries-shire will be up for it

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    4. Confrontation is essential. I have been saying it on here for years.

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    5. If you switch off how do you know Independence isn’t front and centre? Or did you just imagine it wouldn’t be. You’ve only got one foot left now. Careful with that blunderbuss you are totin.

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  5. There is no jury just you pontificating

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  6. There seems to be plenty of polling for Westminster despite it being 3 or 4 years away and a distinct lack of polling for the Scottish and Welsh elections. On Westminster, UK Polling report have published an extensive list of individual seats across the UK, only looked a a few dozen, and alarmingly for Scotland it shows quite a few seats as too close to call, between the SNP and Reform in areas across the central belt. The Greens are polling on average 15% in Glasgow South and Edinburgh North and Leith. I have a feeling the Scottish election may chuck up a few surprises on the constituency ballot although thankfully the Greens don't appear to be standing in all seats which will hopefully boost the SNP vote up.

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