GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 13th-14th July 2025):
Reform UK 28% (+2)
Labour 22% (-2)
Conservatives 17% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+1)
Greens 12% (+1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 33%, Reform UK 22%, Labour 18%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Conservatives 7%, Greens 6%
Recent YouGov polls had shown a narrowing of the gap between Reform and Labour, opening up the possibility of a 're-crossover' that might put Labour back into the lead for the first time since the spring. But most other polling firms haven't really corroborated that trend, and now YouGov have returned to the pack and dashed Starmer's hopes by suddenly showing a trebling of the Reform lead from two points to six.
The Scottish subsample isn't quite as good for the SNP as last week's, but it's still plenty good enough to be getting on with, and continues their run of favourable results since the Hamilton by-election. The Tories' dire fifth-place showing in Scotland may seem scarcely believable, but in fact it's been a pretty consistent pattern for months now. We may at last be seeing The Strange Death of Tory Scotland.
Net ratings for party leaders and potential party leaders:
Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats): -6
Nigel Farage (Reform UK): -31
Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -35
Jeremy Corbyn (Independent Alliance): -37
Keir Starmer (Labour): -44
So Starmer now has an inferior net rating to Jeremy Corbyn, and Corbyn is also ahead in terms of the percentage of respondents who view each individual positively (25% for Corbyn and 23% for Starmer). Remember that when Starmer replaced Corbyn as Labour leader five years ago, it was supposed to be a no-brainer that Labour had just acquired a much more electable leader. That theory may now be tested to destruction, with Corbyn looking set to lead or co-lead a party in direct competition with Labour.
Incidentally, one of the suspended Labour MPs is Brian Leishman, who represents Alloa & Grangemouth. That means the number of Scottish Labour MPs has been for the time being reduced from 37 to 36, leaving the party with 63% of Scottish seats at Westminster.
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Events in Westminster, including the continued active support of genocide in Gaza, the shambles of Afghanistan and the removal of the Labour whip from MPs wanting to protect young and disabled people from poverty should be a trigger for an absolute shitstorm by SNP against the unionist parties up here. Anyone heard a peep? Have SNP sent a competent assertive spokesperson to Pacific House to demand time on live radio to denounce these events and to call for petitions for the removal of the MPs, especially Shanks, who are continuing to collect a salary for doing the sum total of SFA positive for Scotland, and all the time facilitating genocide and the impoverishment of the sick, the young and the disabled? Nope. Not a peep. I despair at the entryists and gender extremists bogging down and suffocating the SNP. Where the feck is Sturgeon? What is she doing for her salary? And where is Swinney’s? . To hail 33% as in any way an acceptable level of support is to concede defeat. 67% of people polled will not vote for the only (and currently only nominal) Indy party in Scotland. That is what people should draw from the polling results.
ReplyDeleteYou’re entitled to your opinion, but 33% for the SNP is pretty decent in my view.
DeleteAch there's always Alba !
DeleteAnon at 6.52. Really? I think it’s appalling and SNP show no signs of concern sense of urgency.
Deleteach there is always an idiot like 7.58pm. .
DeleteAll things considered, the SNP are polling reasonable.
DeleteAnon at 8.33. Given the shambles in Westminster would you not expect them to be polling better? I would. Disappointed.
DeleteAnon@9:13am, maybe it’s the independence thing.
DeleteAnon at 11.52. Maybe it’s the lack of the Independence thing?
DeleteThere's always Liberate Scotland !
DeleteAnon at 7.18. No there is not. Grow up. There is only SNP if you are looking to a party capable of progressing Independence. And they are currently doing nothing to progress it. They are however currently trashing a decade of competent governance and replacing it with an incompetent, arrogant and non Democratic Party. The election results clearly evidence this.
Delete8.09 That's not what the party faithful think and as long as there are enough of them, the union is safe.
DeleteI'm guessing here but perhaps the main message is that people just loathe and despise professional politicians - which seems fair enough to me. They then decide how they might vote via a whole tangle of their individual lesser evil perceptions. No party convincingly offers a way forward to a better life.
ReplyDeleteA dismal situation but not surprising when you consider the wretched governments of the last several decades.
If the SNP leadership had vision and guts on independence it might make a positive impression on this god forsaken mess.
Is that where the elderly women was knocked to the ground and her husband injured
ReplyDelete??
DeleteWhat is the sample error for the Scottish sub-sample?
ReplyDeleteIt's either 9 or 6.
DeleteWhy not 7?
DeleteI am back from honeymoon and ready to fight with anyone !!!
ReplyDeleteMad Dog is >>>>> thattaway.
DeleteYou mean he can be found to the far right? More than likely...
DeleteHopefully Swinney will crack down on Orange marches. God's sake, it's 2025.
ReplyDeleteIf only sectarian hatefests were illegal. We can dream.
DeleteWhy do some football supporters believe they are more “loyal” than others?
DeleteSome football supporters from both sides are a disgrace.
DeleteAny other facets of Scottish culture you want him to ban? The Masons? The Wee Frees? Opus Dei? The Boys Brigade? The Girl Guides? You sound rather intolerant of people who aren't replicas of you.
DeleteIf any of those groups are about asserting dominance over another group, then yes, obviously. I don't think the Girl Guides meet that bar, though.
DeleteAnon at 10.34. Straw man. I’m referring to overtly sectarian behaviour. Other than your disingenuous and misleading reference to Scottish culture do you have anything to contribute to the discussion?
DeleteApparently Smarmer has removed the whip
ReplyDeleteApparently Smarmer has removed the whip fae Leishman MP fae Grangemouth. Pure spite !
DeleteLeishman needs to ask himself if he is in the right party. Labour are right wing and anti democratic.
DeleteAgree but unfortunately he's s Britnat.
DeleteEvery MSP that voted against the SNP's gender reform legislation lost the SNP whip. If anything, Starmer was less authoritarian than Sturgeon. Both decisions were inevetable. And if anyone thinks it is relevant, Sturgeon is a nationalist and so were all the MSPs she did in.
DeleteAnon at 10.41 ... your first sentence is incorrect.
DeleteAnon at 10.41 oh ye wee liar!
DeleteAnon at 10.41. You are lying. Go back to WOS and the Daily Fail. Sturgeon can be criticised for many failings. Why make something up when you have so many you can pick from?
DeleteI see the arseholes from Alba and WOS are back. Btl rendered useless again. Is suffocating discussion in the Alba manifesto?
ReplyDeleteThese unwashed Yessers are just abhorrent, aren’t they dear? What a bunch of yobs. They should all politely “wheesht for Swinney,” rather.
DeleteIf you say so Stu.
DeleteAnon at 11.26. You come across as a wee arsehole. Who still tries the wheeest patter? You it seems. Cretin.
DeleteI’ll be at the Gaza protest in Edinburgh on Saturday. Thinking what I might write on a sign. Bibi’s hardly fussed, so all the obvious stuff about Israel itself is moot. How about something addressed at Scotgov about their funding arms firms to assist the IDF in its acts of genocide?
ReplyDeleteIdeas?
I thought about:
DeleteUK Govt must
act on
genocide in
Palestine
but my husband says he doesn't want to spend the next 14 years visiting me in jail. Considering I'm 77 I think he is being unduly pessimistic over how long he would have to keep visiting.
Nice try, but how about:
DeleteUK Govt -
Stop
Backing
Genocide
Nine SNP MSPs voted against the bill back in Dec 22. I don't think any of them lost the whip over it although Ash resigned from her Cabinet post and later joined Alba.
ReplyDeleteUp the workers.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely , the SNP has hardly ever removed the whip from MPs or MSPs.
ReplyDeleteEwing was suspended for a week , if I mind right.
Leishman and a few others have been singled out whilst dozens of others that rebelled have not had the whip removed.
Sheer spite.
Although historicall the tories and labour peers love whips.
ReplyDeleteStill I note that the next Uk general election will permit 16yr olds and above to vote. The pollsters will have to recalibrate. Tories and Farage are not happy.
Won’t they still need to bring their driver’s licence or pensioner’s bus pass as valid photo ID? When that guff was introduced, student ID cards were prominently excluded from the list.
DeleteAlba, the party that never was now never will be, and still the nob head haters of the SNP talk about this non party as though it exists
ReplyDeleteGiven that there are over 150,000 16-17 yr old in Scotland who will now be able, for the first time, to vote in the next WM GE, I wonder how that will affect the various parties?
ReplyDeleteGood news for the SNP and Greens?
Probably good news for the SNP and Greens, as 16 and 17 year olds will generally be more gullible and easily brainwashed.
DeleteWrong.
DeleteThat would be the over 65s who were gullible, brainwashed and dumb enough to vote for Brexit and will now probably vote for that moron Farage.
For Orkney and Shetland, two places that don't want to be Scottish but expect the rest of Scotland to pay all the expenses of the ferries and now a tunnel connecting them with each other paid again by the rest of us on the mainland
DeleteDo we hear a Scottish national anthem at the Island Games? no we don't
A tunnel *between* Orkney and Shetland? That would be the longest sea tunnel in the world, surely? Nothing so ambitious: they're just talking about inter-island ferries within Orkney and Shetland.
DeleteAnon at 5.49. You appear to have described yourself. Sad wee britnat. Away and snog your picture of Charlie boy in his kilt and crown. You believe in a Westminster parliament and institution that thinks shagger boy is your conduit to a god. But yeah, it’s not you that is gullible and brainwashed. Cretin.
DeleteAnon@8:19pm,
DeleteYou are a real saddo.
The real saddos are in Alba.
DeleteI wonder what’s happened to IFS. Hope he hasn’t given up on the cause.
ReplyDeleteHey Mr. Creepy…
DeleteThe cause ? Well that ain't furthering Scottish independence.
DeleteIFS isn't interested in independence now and never has been
DeleteLast seen in his Bath.
ReplyDeleteMaybe his unionist minders have pulled the plug on his trolling?
DeleteAnd Corbyn, most of all. What is Labour thinking?
ReplyDeleteHow many of them actually vote though? How many can even spell democracy? A few thousand rainbow clad Gen Z blue hairs isn't going to affect much when diluted over 650 seats.
ReplyDeleteIt was the auld generation who gave us Brexit and continuous Tory governments.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 9.05pm
ReplyDeleteI was purely talking about Scotland and there are just 57 WM seats here, many of which have majories of only a few thousand.
So those 150,0000 cohort of 16-17yr olds could well make a difference in those seats.
.
Perhaps now that the Large Hadron Collider in Lucerne, Switzerland had quantified the Higgs boson particle, it should be repurposed to locate Tel Aviv Kompromat. The element everyone knows exists, but apparently no one can see it.
ReplyDeleteIn the last 7 days, Polis Scotland have charged 5 people under the Prevention of Terrorism Act. One displayed a poster bearing the name P@le$tine Acti@n. One wore a t shirt with the words P@le$tine and Acti@n, non consecutively on it. Three (allegedly) committed minor damage to a fence in an action of peaceful, direct protest. The three did not commit this (alleged) act in the name of P@le$tine Acti@n, and yet they are being held incommunicado, being denied access to a competent solicitor, and are being moved from one detention facility to another (3 in 3 days) to prevent a specialist solicitor hired on their behalf from making contact with them.
ReplyDeletePolis Scotland do not swear an oath of allegiance to the British State. They swear an oath to the Scottish people.
Why are Polis Scotland acting as MI5’s personal Stasi?
When will the Scottish Government speak up against this gross breach of Scots, legal process?
Police Scotland has a long history of appointing a Chief Constable from outwith its own ranks. They are not alone in this. It was standard practice in the RUC and now the PSNI.
DeleteThis is not a bug, it’s a feature.
During the selection process, local knowledge of demographics, topography, law, culture, customs, and political and judicial structure, is not a virtue, it is an impediment to being hired.
The Chief Constable must show loyalty to the British State, not the citizens they serve. Any Chief Constable showing dangerous independence of though has the spectre of John Stalker dangled in front of them as a warning.
Until it is demonstrably proven otherwise, I will assume Police Scotland is subordinate to MI5, and not the Scottish Government (and by extension, the Scottish people).
Resistance to Police Scotland becoming a goon squad for the Spookocracy must come from the rank-and-file.
DeleteEvery organisation will contain individuals who regard personal morality as a burdensome encumbrance to their ascent up the slippery pole.
Honest and brave whistleblowers are desperately needed. Potential whistleblowers would be greatly emboldened by words of encouragement from on high.
Will John Swinney display the haw maws to speak out?
A widnae haud yer breath.
What’s going on in Palestine is truly awful, no doubt about it.
DeleteYet the Ukraine war is equally awful. Why to supporters of independence like to talk about Gaza, but never mention Ukraine?
Oh wait, there’s no political gain to be made from Ukraine, but in their warped minds they think there is from Gaza. It’s what Nats do, they try to score political points from tragedies.
We only have to look back to wee Sturgeon’s disgraceful grandstanding during Covid.
What a desperate shower!
Who doesn't talk about Ukraine ? Don't tell fibs.
DeletePolice Scotland do what they are told by their masters in London. The police investigation into Sturgeon was a politically motivated attempt to destroy the SNP. It did not succeed but caused huge damage. The usual suspects on here denied that the investigation was politically motivated for no other reason than their hatred of SNP and N S.
DeleteIt's not just the rozzers who have got it in for the SNP, alleged members of the Yes Movement have too. Just check their comments in the National btl. they hope Swinney and the SNP get hammered in 2026.
DeleteEmbarrassing stuff from anon at 12:25pm.
DeleteTrue though.
DeleteAnon at 3.05 pm. Why does the truth threaten you? And which are you? A unionist or one of the pretend Indy brigade? Either way, you are a useful idiot to the unionist regime. Open your eyes to the behaviour of police Scotland, even if only over the last few days re Gaza, and in their reaction to lawful anti monarchy protests last year.
DeleteAnon at 8.42. Liar. Back to Daily Fail and WOS for you. Your natural home.
Delete6.26am is the weirdo who stays up all night fantasising about IFS. He should get some sleep instead as there is no post from anyone at 8.42. Sleep deprivation can cause serious mental problems and you anon at 6.26am are showing signs of that.
Delete12.25pm what a load of bullshit. Money went missing. The Police investigated. Nicola’s husband is being prosecuted. These are facts unlike your bullshit.
DeleteI see IFS is still spouting his mysogenist views. I wonder what it is like to have such a murky mind?
ReplyDeleteSimple question for anon @ 11.18am. Where can we find this? Or have you just made that up and are a liar.
DeleteAnon at 11.18am has made up that comment and shown himself to be a liar. Whether he is a bare faced liar or a pathological liar can be debated but he is most definately one sorry son of a bitch.
DeleteAnon at 11.18am is neither a bare faced liar nor a pathological liar. He is clearly a habitual liar.
DeleteAnon at 11.18am may or may not be a liar but he needs to learn to spell misogynist if he wants to be taken seriously.
DeleteHello IFS. Will you just be posting as an anon from now on? Asking for a friend. Cue hilarious comments on friends and liars.
DeleteThe weirdo at 6.24am should get some sleep, stop lying and stop fantasising about IFS. It’s not a healthy lifestyle.
DeleteAnon at 10.06. As I predicted hilarious lie based response. Great work. Say hello to IFS for us. Save yourself the bother of querying the use of the word “we”. It’s so last year. Byeee.
DeleteAnon @ 11.41 not only can you not spell misogynist you cannot even read your own posts. You do not use the word “we” in that post. You really need to get some sleep instead of staying up all night fantasising about IFS. What a weirdo you are.
Delete