GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 13th-14th July 2025):
Reform UK 28% (+2)
Labour 22% (-2)
Conservatives 17% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+1)
Greens 12% (+1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 33%, Reform UK 22%, Labour 18%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Conservatives 7%, Greens 6%
Recent YouGov polls had shown a narrowing of the gap between Reform and Labour, opening up the possibility of a 're-crossover' that might put Labour back into the lead for the first time since the spring. But most other polling firms haven't really corroborated that trend, and now YouGov have returned to the pack and dashed Starmer's hopes by suddenly showing a trebling of the Reform lead from two points to six.
The Scottish subsample isn't quite as good for the SNP as last week's, but it's still plenty good enough to be getting on with, and continues their run of favourable results since the Hamilton by-election. The Tories' dire fifth-place showing in Scotland may seem scarcely believable, but in fact it's been a pretty consistent pattern for months now. We may at last be seeing The Strange Death of Tory Scotland.
Net ratings for party leaders and potential party leaders:
Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats): -6
Nigel Farage (Reform UK): -31
Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -35
Jeremy Corbyn (Independent Alliance): -37
Keir Starmer (Labour): -44
So Starmer now has an inferior net rating to Jeremy Corbyn, and Corbyn is also ahead in terms of the percentage of respondents who view each individual positively (25% for Corbyn and 23% for Starmer). Remember that when Starmer replaced Corbyn as Labour leader five years ago, it was supposed to be a no-brainer that Labour had just acquired a much more electable leader. That theory may now be tested to destruction, with Corbyn looking set to lead or co-lead a party in direct competition with Labour.
Incidentally, one of the suspended Labour MPs is Brian Leishman, who represents Alloa & Grangemouth. That means the number of Scottish Labour MPs has been for the time being reduced from 37 to 36, leaving the party with 63% of Scottish seats at Westminster.
* * *
The running total in the Scot Goes Pop 2025 fundraiser currently stands at £3100, meaning it is 46% of the way towards the target figure of £6800. If you'd like to help the blog keep going, donations by card are welcome HERE, or alternatively you can cut out fees altogether (depending on which option you select from the menu) by making a direct donation via PayPal. My PayPal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
Events in Westminster, including the continued active support of genocide in Gaza, the shambles of Afghanistan and the removal of the Labour whip from MPs wanting to protect young and disabled people from poverty should be a trigger for an absolute shitstorm by SNP against the unionist parties up here. Anyone heard a peep? Have SNP sent a competent assertive spokesperson to Pacific House to demand time on live radio to denounce these events and to call for petitions for the removal of the MPs, especially Shanks, who are continuing to collect a salary for doing the sum total of SFA positive for Scotland, and all the time facilitating genocide and the impoverishment of the sick, the young and the disabled? Nope. Not a peep. I despair at the entryists and gender extremists bogging down and suffocating the SNP. Where the feck is Sturgeon? What is she doing for her salary? And where is Swinney’s? . To hail 33% as in any way an acceptable level of support is to concede defeat. 67% of people polled will not vote for the only (and currently only nominal) Indy party in Scotland. That is what people should draw from the polling results.
ReplyDeleteYou’re entitled to your opinion, but 33% for the SNP is pretty decent in my view.
DeleteAch there's always Alba !
DeleteAnon at 6.52. Really? I think it’s appalling and SNP show no signs of concern sense of urgency.
Deleteach there is always an idiot like 7.58pm. .
DeleteAll things considered, the SNP are polling reasonable.
DeleteAnon at 8.33. Given the shambles in Westminster would you not expect them to be polling better? I would. Disappointed.
DeleteAnon@9:13am, maybe it’s the independence thing.
DeleteAnon at 11.52. Maybe it’s the lack of the Independence thing?
DeleteI'm guessing here but perhaps the main message is that people just loathe and despise professional politicians - which seems fair enough to me. They then decide how they might vote via a whole tangle of their individual lesser evil perceptions. No party convincingly offers a way forward to a better life.
ReplyDeleteA dismal situation but not surprising when you consider the wretched governments of the last several decades.
If the SNP leadership had vision and guts on independence it might make a positive impression on this god forsaken mess.
Is that where the elderly women was knocked to the ground and her husband injured
ReplyDelete??
DeleteWhat is the sample error for the Scottish sub-sample?
ReplyDeleteIt's either 9 or 6.
DeleteWhy not 7?
DeleteI am back from honeymoon and ready to fight with anyone !!!
ReplyDeleteMad Dog is >>>>> thattaway.
DeleteYou mean he can be found to the far right? More than likely...
DeleteHopefully Swinney will crack down on Orange marches. God's sake, it's 2025.
ReplyDeleteIf only sectarian hatefests were illegal. We can dream.
DeleteWhy do some football supporters believe they are more “loyal” than others?
DeleteSome football supporters from both sides are a disgrace.
DeleteAny other facets of Scottish culture you want him to ban? The Masons? The Wee Frees? Opus Dei? The Boys Brigade? The Girl Guides? You sound rather intolerant of people who aren't replicas of you.
DeleteIf any of those groups are about asserting dominance over another group, then yes, obviously. I don't think the Girl Guides meet that bar, though.
DeleteAnon at 10.34. Straw man. I’m referring to overtly sectarian behaviour. Other than your disingenuous and misleading reference to Scottish culture do you have anything to contribute to the discussion?
DeleteApparently Smarmer has removed the whip
ReplyDeleteApparently Smarmer has removed the whip fae Leishman MP fae Grangemouth. Pure spite !
DeleteLeishman needs to ask himself if he is in the right party. Labour are right wing and anti democratic.
DeleteAgree but unfortunately he's s Britnat.
DeleteEvery MSP that voted against the SNP's gender reform legislation lost the SNP whip. If anything, Starmer was less authoritarian than Sturgeon. Both decisions were inevetable. And if anyone thinks it is relevant, Sturgeon is a nationalist and so were all the MSPs she did in.
DeleteAnon at 10.41 ... your first sentence is incorrect.
DeleteI see the arseholes from Alba and WOS are back. Btl rendered useless again. Is suffocating discussion in the Alba manifesto?
ReplyDeleteThese unwashed Yessers are just abhorrent, aren’t they dear? What a bunch of yobs. They should all politely “wheesht for Swinney,” rather.
DeleteI’ll be at the Gaza protest in Edinburgh on Saturday. Thinking what I might write on a sign. Bibi’s hardly fussed, so all the obvious stuff about Israel itself is moot. How about something addressed at Scotgov about their funding arms firms to assist the IDF in its acts of genocide?
ReplyDeleteIdeas?
Nine SNP MSPs voted against the bill back in Dec 22. I don't think any of them lost the whip over it although Ash resigned from her Cabinet post and later joined Alba.
ReplyDeleteUp the workers.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely , the SNP has hardly ever removed the whip from MPs or MSPs.
ReplyDeleteEwing was suspended for a week , if I mind right.
Leishman and a few others have been singled out whilst dozens of others that rebelled have not had the whip removed.
Sheer spite.
Although historicall the tories and labour peers love whips.
ReplyDeleteStill I note that the next Uk general election will permit 16yr olds and above to vote. The pollsters will have to recalibrate. Tories and Farage are not happy.