Particularly portentous poll leaves Plaid Cymru poised for POWER

Thank you to Rhun for emailing from Wales (it wasn't Rhun ap Iorweth, by the way!) to alert me to the sensational new Senedd poll from YouGov.

Welsh Senedd voting intentions (YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff University)

Plaid Cymru 30% (+6)

Reform UK 25% (+2)

Labour 18% (-5)

Conservatives 13% (-6)

Liberal Democrats 7% (+2)

Greens 5% (-1)

I remember saying after a recent Welsh poll from a different firm had shown a Plaid increase, it might be logical to expect that YouGov - which had already shown Plaid in a slight lead - might show a bigger Plaid lead in their next poll.  I'm not sure I really expected that to materialise, but it's exactly what's happened.  Clearly there are house effects at play here, and different polling firms could well continue showing different parties in the lead until polling day a year from now - which could make the election count even more nerve-jangling than usual.

One important caveat to put on the YouGov numbers is that the fieldwork took place entirely before the English local elections, so if Reform are benefiting in Wales from any momentum generated on Thursday, that won't show up until future polls.

I don't know if the Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan knew this poll was coming before she crafted her speech distancing herself from the right-wing London Labour, but she must have had a fair idea of the threat she faces from the left in the shape of Plaid.  I'm not sure her tactic will work, though.  If people are scunnered enough with Labour to be seeking out a radical alternative on the left, they'll want the real thing, rather than the pale imitation of Labour offering a half-hearted alternative to itself.  Additionally, the Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorweth looks the part as a future First Minister, and his past as a former BBC presenter lends him the reassuring status of a long-familiar face, so I'm not sure potential Plaid voters will lose their nerve in any way.

*. *. *

A constant refrain of mine over the last few years is that the SNP have got to stop needlessly chucking away parliamentary seats like confetti, but here we go again.  Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins have both been confirmed as Holyrood constituency candidates, and because of the new ban on dual mandates, that probably means there will be two Westminster by-elections, and in the worst-case scenario that could reduce the SNP's Westminster representation from nine seats to seven.  Aberdeen South looks like a particularly tricky seat to defend.  

There's not much more to say - I and plenty of others have warned against the folly of doing this, and as per usual those warnings have gone totally unheeded, so now the dye is cast we'll just have to hope the SNP run better by-election campaigns than they did in Rutherglen.  And if the purpose of getting Stephen Flynn into Holyrood is to stop Kate Forbes becoming First Minister in the medium-term, I have to point out again that the polling evidence is clear - Forbes remains significantly more voter-friendly than Flynn, who probably puts a segment of the electorate off by coming across as too belligerent.

You had your chance to put pressure on the SNP to move independence forward by offering a real alternative to voters. You blew it, because your leadership will not contemplate anything except complete control - the opposite of the 'members' led party' you promised.

— AyrshireAlba 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 (@AlbaAyrshire) May 6, 2025

Speaking in front of the House of Commons on Tuesday, Conservative MP Mark Pritchard condemned Israel for its actions in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.
“I have supported Israel, pretty much at all costs,” said Pritchard. “But today, I want to say that I got it wrong,” he added. pic.twitter.com/xxIxwY2nOo

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) May 6, 2025