GB-wide voting intentions (More In Common, 3rd-4th May 2025):
Reform UK 27% (+3)
Labour 23% (-1)
Conservatives 21% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 15% (-)
Greens 8% (-)
SNP 3% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
23%, although grim, is not a new post-election low for Labour, who have previously been as low as 21% with More In Common - although that number always looked like an outlier.
The main disappointment for Reform will be that it looks as if they've failed to use the 'shock and awe' effect of the local elections to pull away decisively from the Conservatives and establish themselves as the only credible challenger to Labour. They've increased their advantage over the Tories in this poll from one point to six, which is obviously a significant change, but it certainly isn't enough to leave the Tories with no way back.
> the only surprise is that it isn't even bigger
ReplyDeleteFarage is the limiting factor. Like his pal Donald, he has a “low ceiling”: a great many people hate his guts. It’s the old Marmite Effect in action.
Marmite politicians can win elections, of course. Salmond was one and the SNP dominated in 2011 in the height of his leadership. Trump won in 2024 but only by a nose.
Farage wins if his opponents are divided. In England they certainly are! But Scotland and maybe now even Wales could be a very different story.
RefUK are running second in Scotland on that poll.
ReplyDeleteScottish sub-sample (113): Con 11%, Lab 17%, LibDem 9%, RefUK 20%, SNP 29%, Green 8%
RefUK are riding the anti woke zeitgeist like an auld donkey on Skegness beach. They’ll emerge victorious hiding their anti working class agenda (scrap the NHS & tax breaks for private education) behind a smokescreen of “war on woke”.
Meanwhile, the SNP is putting up Sally “Gravybus” Donald as the candidate for Edinburgh Southern. The SNP have an apparent death wish.
A sample of 113- how accurate is that? Margin of error?
DeleteAhh the reform troll shows himself.
DeleteI’m the anon at 9:02, and most definitely NOT a reform troll!
DeleteI’d have thought that was obvious!!
Here's one for all the brain boxes on here who think they're sooooo very clever and proper. The Immigrants-Are-Better-Than-Us-Brigade are always harping on about multi cultural ism. (I wish I was born a Jaimaician). Well they don't! I was taken to the buffey night at a Indian in town on Sunday to celebrate VE Day and I asked the waiter for chopsticks and he said they only had knifes and forks. So much for being proud of your culture. Money talks!
ReplyDeleteSaltcoats and kultur don’t go together. Did you use your fingers!
DeleteSharon Donoghue is too creepy
DeleteJimmy at 9.07 am .. I've read your post four times and still don't understand it.
DeleteNonsensical at 9.07 I have never been in an Indian restaurant where they give you chopsticks………that would be a Chinese restaurant. Quite clearly someone who doesn’t know their atse from their elbow!!!
DeleteSorry my 12.48 post meant to say “ arse from elbow” predictive text!!!
DeleteDavid Francis doesn't know his arse from his elbow and that's the least of his problems.
DeleteWill Tories and Reform do a pack?
ReplyDeleteFarage would destroy them. It’s one of his main aims and there are still some tories who know that. So no formal pact but possibly work together on case by case basis.
DeleteNEW: John Swinney says he would 'absolutely' serve the full five-year term as First Minister if the SNP wins next year’s Holyrood election.
ReplyDeleteNEW: A Holyrood election will only lead to a second independence referendum if the SNP do 'really well', First Minister John Swinney has said.
Why does this sound very familiar?
I think a positive plus HR election result is enough to say we want independence. When Westminster then say you can have a referendum we respond, mind your own business we don’t need one
ReplyDeleteDon't be so pessimistic! We know how much Keir Starmer respects the Scots and notion of democracy.
DeleteHe'll be giving us a referendum out of pure kindness and insist one takes place!
Correct. This is strategic genius from Swinney. His critics are overlooking the "Starmer is kind and reasonable" factor.
DeleteLabour at PMQs today desperately slagging off the SG again at every opportunity. Starmer must be worried for Labour's prospects in 2026, as he read out his prepared responses to the planted questions. He really is quite comical.
ReplyDeleteYeah, and Churchill was decisively voted out of power in July 1945!
ReplyDeleteChurchill wasn’t regarded as a great PM but he was a Great War leader, and regarded the world over as one of the great statesmen of the 20th century. Even today, there are still Americans who regard him as the greatest person that’s ever lived.
DeleteThe Boers don't think so well of him.
ReplyDelete