Just a quick note to let you know I have a new article at The National with analysis of the remarkable new Scottish poll from Survation, which shows the SNP and Greens on course to retain the pro-indy majority at Holyrood, and Reform on course to leapfrog Labour and the Tories to become the largest opposition party. You can read the article HERE.
Good.
ReplyDeleteMaybe pro independence labour supporters will eventually see the light.
ReplyDeleteLooking at events over the past decade I see no possibility of labour voters coming over to yes in meaningful numbers. The tories were thieving lying bastards, and we have had Brexit, tories plundering public funds under guise of Covid PPE, Johnson and now Farage, but no movement.
DeleteBut they cheer at the football!
DeleteLabour says they are Scottish🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣.
DeleteTricky when Swinney has advocated Nutella and bananas for our kids. Greer says Swinney is his "work daddy" FFS!
DeleteSeek help.
DeleteAlso the problem of getting yes voters to vote. A lot have had enough of the SNP con. Today Swinney turns down indy convention because the SNP are going to do 'really well' and he's going to stay FM for full term of 5years. Thanks! Your no getting my vote.
ReplyDeleteThanks labour Brit
DeleteIf he is going to stay FM of a devolved parliament for 5 years then by definition there will be no independence under Swinney’s watch for 6 years. Not getting my vote as he is a devolutionist.
DeleteAnon at 6.53 pm ... as asked previously, please provide a reference or link to what you say JS has said. Thanks.
Deletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/25145556.john-swinney-pours-cold-water-snp-holding-independence-convention/
DeleteThe National-the heralds wee brother
DeleteSwinney was then asked about Brown’s speech at the 2024 SNP conference and whether the SNP still planned to pull together a convention of all Yes-supporting parties.
DeleteHe said: “Well, I don’t think it's necessarily the only way that we need to move forward, but I think that what I want to have is an active conversation with the public about all the issues that I've mapped out to you today.”
Pushed on whether “conversation” would become a convention, as pledged, Swinney said: “It's actually about winning hearts and minds. The key point in my speech was that nothing happens on the constitutional agenda in Scotland unless the SNP does really well.
“And I've set out to you that my ambition in the election is to move the tectonic plates on this issue, and that's what my campaign is about.”
Asked again if the SNP would arrange an independence convention or not, the First Minister said: “Well, we're just going to go about doing really well politically, engaging with the public and shifting the dial.”
Asked if that meant any convention was “off”, Swinney said: “I’ve given you the answer.”
Elsewhere, the First Minister also said that a “democratic majority” of pro-independence MSPs following the next Scottish Parliament election should result in another referendum, though declined to say if he would ask the UK Government for a Section 30 order to hold such a vote.
Not the time to go huffy puffy. Yes voters need to get out and vote and if not for the SNP then any indy party. Not voting is just gifting Holyrood to Big Nige and Westminster. It's not the time for huffing.
ReplyDeleteThen recognise Swinney is part of the problem not the solution. He sat behind Sturgeon and redacted information not least.
DeleteThe deletion of the COVID messages was a disaster. What Sturgeon and Swinney did prevented us Scots from learning from our mistakes so we can be better prepared if this happens again. They both should be in jail. The are an absolute disgrace.. they call themselves public servants?
Anon at 10.04. Back to wings. Your lies and distortion are transparent. Ironic when there is so much you could validly criticise Sturgeon for. Not so much Swinney.
Delete"Your lies and distortion are transparent."
DeleteJust look at the public evidence. You can't just bring yourself to the point where you realise Sturgeon and Swinney manipulated you.
I appreciate you are indoctronated but look up how you leave a cult. It will be good for your mental health in the long run.
That is maybe one of the reasons why James left the SNP and joined ALBA , he could see the writing on the wall and how it was not good for indy.
DeleteIf I had truly seen the writing on the wall, I'd have foreseen that Alba were controlled by a bunch of Stalinist nutjobs and that I shouldn't have touched them with a bargepole. Nobody is infallible, and joining Alba was undoubtedly a very big mistake, not just for me but for many others.
DeleteI think the glitter fell off a lot of people, not just in Alba. Remember for instance Alyn Smith "Leave a light on for Scotland"? Slater and her great speeches, Black and hers?
DeleteWhatever happened to all these more than mere mortals?
To float in idea.
DeleteTo make indy happen will require a concerted effort between the conservative Scots (with a small C) and the not conservative Scots to see a way forward.
Until then INDY will never happen.
One big problem is that you have folk who are left wing.. think money grows on trees.
You have the nutter Greens who think we can not use out own oil, and gas,
the Liberals who just want to bum each other and some radical conservatives that just want to be bankers..
So how does Swinney pull all of that together?
We need answers soon before 2026!
Swinney literally said that there's no need for a pro-indy summit, the goal is for the SNP to do well politically and after the election they'll just continue the strategy of asking for another referendum...
DeleteIf it really surprising that not everyone will unite behind that?
"... and after the election they'll just continue the strategy of asking for another referendum"
Deletehe didn't say that you liar
Elsewhere, the First Minister also said that a “democratic majority” of pro-independence MSPs following the next Scottish Parliament election should result in another referendum.
DeleteSo he's going for the magic genie approach of wishing for one if he's not going to ask for it?
I’m no voting party- independence by midnight, guaranteed.
ReplyDeleteThose are depressingly high figures for Reform. Hopefully this is their high point
ReplyDeleteWorringly probaly not.. the tend is upwards. Swinney needs to work some magic and motivate the SNP base to get out and start knocking doors.
DeleteReform are taking votes from Tory and labour support. Fine by me. They are going to crash and burn very shortly in local govt in England. They were attempting to backtrack on election promises as early as last Sunday.
DeleteSwinney needs to work some magic and disappear
DeleteSpot on.. you have clocked at last Swinney is taking you for a ride!
DeleteSigh! No, Swinney is not taking anybody for a ride. He's a pragmatic realist and doesn't venture into knee-jerking or unicorn fairytales and bloviating Braveheart speechifying just to win over the discontented and impatients who think the Yes movement is indicative of the feelings of the country regarding independence. The fact Farage is making such swift inroads is evidence, as if you should need it, that the Yes movement is NOT Scotland and does not reflect the mood of anybody but the already independence supporting voter cohort. And we are not nearly enough. That's what Swinney absolutely knows - and which some in the movement refuse to see. We are not top dogs in Scotland - which is why Farage is chancing it now.
DeleteSwinney doesn't pretend he can work any magic. In a devolved stymied administration with little or no dosh, he simply can't and rational realists know and accept that. Only voters can determine whether they want independence and show that they are committed to it enough to enable him to do green light for go. The country hasn't done that. Half the country couldn't even tell you what the difference between a devolved administration and a fully resourced government like Westminster - but expect ScotGov to perform to the potential of a fully resourced true government. The impatients in the Yes movement all too readily airbrush that reality out of their mindspace as well and increasingly have far too high expectations of what is possible and what in practicality is not.
When everything in life seems precarious, as it is now, not just in Scotland or UK, but around the world - with the knock-on effects due to interdependency tapping voters' at their front doors - cheery laid back Farage comes along; charismatic, saying comforting things, fully tapped into the immigration fears, hail fellow well met with the working classes - and he's attractive across the board. He's like Big Dog Boris - he's a natural lure for the disenchanted and all in dire straits and oozes the right words, the cheery 'I'm your man' demeanour.
Nobody has the psychological smarts to break down that dog attracting more dogs - and we're all animals.
Independence is not on speed dial - though some think it is and more fool them. Unicorn chasers. The danger now is having a Scottish parliament game played by Nigel Farage and his big donor influencers who will be delighted at access to Scotland and its resources via Farage.
Independence supporters either grasp the real danger here - or they carry on debating mythical routes to getting independence faster and being distracted with the same old wimping about Swinney and all the other total distractions to what should be the main concern - and that is keeping Holyrood Scottish for Scotland.
All the independence minutiae same old debates should be saved for after securing Holyrood - and independence parties need to secure it in 2026 - because if we neglect to do that - it's no longer going to be a Scottish parliament, it will be firmly UKplc's and we'll never get it back for Scotland.
If people can't see the wood for the trees and make that effort for 2026 - back Swinney, Alba, other indy parties - and make sure Holyrood remain's Scotland's - then you're not worth anything to Scotland.
Serious question: Do you believe Keir Starmer or god forbid future PM Nigel Farage will ever kindly grant the request for another referendum?
DeleteNot whether they should, if you were them would you ever actually do it?
Anon at 5.38 am ... well said.
DeleteIssue is: There's always going to be some crisis or bogeyman we need to save ourselves from.
DeletePreviously we needed to put our differences aside to ensure we maintained a pro-indy majority at Holyrood to save us from Boris Johnson's chaotic Brexit... how did that work out?
2021 was the most important election for us all, now 2026 is the most important election for us all. Will we be saying the same about 2031? When will things actually change?
So basically Swinney's laid back target is this:
ReplyDeleteConstituency - SNP - 2021 47.7%, poll 33% (-15), 2026 48% (-)
Regional - SNP - 2021 40.3%, poll 29% (-11), 2026 40% (-)
Which gives a much more interesting picture:
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/scottish-parliament?election=2021s&cSNP=48&cCON=11&cLAB=19&cLD=11&cGRN=5&cREF=4&rSNP=40&rCON=12&rLAB=18&rGRN=9&rLD=10&rALBA=3&rREF=8&output=seat-gains-and-losses#Scotland
"SNP Win 5 seat majority"
It's a doddle
Aye, but another few percentage points and Reform will change those figures a lot.
DeleteI think we have to face reality. Reform are topping the UK polls almost consistantly.. if they keep slowly on the up then it will suddenly have a dramatic impact in Scotland.
You can take it as a given that the INDY parties won't between them get the majority of the vote.. more than half the eletorate.
I hope Swinney delivers on his January proposal for Indy and is bold. I suspect he will do little.. dangle some carrots and so on.
"I hope Swinney delivers on his January proposal for Indy and is bold"
DeleteFeels rather unlikely considering his response to the suggestion of a pro-indy summit when asked about it today & his assurances about serving the full 5 years as First Minister.
You can smell shIte? The SNP are all about the grift, mucking about with your kids education, pulling out of PIZA, immigration and pandering to certain minorities who then vote for them to keep their over paid jobs.
DeleteINDY is FUCKED! One way might be for the SNP to move sharply to the right and keep Scotland for the Scots! Wey hey..
We want an INDY Scotland but the idea is that we don't want Sharia law for example or to discriminate against women.
Hey the Danes are booting out immigants left right and centre, are they far right or have just woken up and smelt the coffee?
Reading comments such as Anon at 1.17 tells you why J S doesn’t want engagement with lowlife like you.
DeletePerhaps Anon at 1.17 is asking a legitimate question ... are the Danes far right or have they simply realised that something is wrong and things need to change?
DeleteAnon at 10.40 You get that feeling too that Swinney is dangling carrots.. good for his pension though. Another 5 years.. he is really going to set the heather alight! It's grift all the way off the back of hard working members of the movement. The wanker even robbed the branch funds!
ReplyDeleteI met Swinney once at my branch while a member (for 3 years). Spoke to him a bit. He was visiting other branches the same day. He's a grafter not a grifter.
DeleteHe is a chancer and you fell for it ya fud!
DeleteIf he was honest he would have not redacted, deleted and tried to stymie the release of information that is essential to public health. He should have put Scotland above his own party interest.
DeleteThis type of behavoir caused many honest Scots folk to leave the SNP and form ALBA.. If you still think Swinney is an honest broker then you STD has probably fuddled you mind. Time for you to buy a merkin.
Anon at 11.14 and 11.19. Sad wee person and not an Indy supporter. The reference to STD tells us something about you. Nasty and cowardly individual.
DeleteI know that James' blog is a place for high political discourse.
ReplyDeleteBut if you have been out on the town in the central belt you may have noticed that most of the guys on the door of pubs etc are not white aymore and that has changed quite rapidly.. over the last couple of years.
You may have also noticed that the folk that deliver your takeaway, few are white.
I'm just using language that Humza used and in the same general context.
Now ask.. what does the working class person in the street see? Is indy more important or our jobs and access to affordable housing and part time jobs where we can boost family income by working extra hours.
Put the two together and you can see the attraction of Reform?
You couldn't break the caramelised demerara sugar on a crème brûlée. Mrs Minto could take you down with her pinkie. I'm going to call you Lorna Puffkin from now on.
DeleteWhat goes on in the inside of a racists head? Poisonous certainly.
DeleteNice touch.. Love the Minto ref.. like Edinburgh Minto Street.. you know it used to have a reputation for "fast / sporty girls", it's gone down hill a bit.. recommend a Big Nic plug for you as a starter to get your life back to exciting.
ReplyDeleteif you survive the "Big Nic" maybe you can address my points. If you struggle then you can learn from Dave Francis first?
Lorna Puffkin. You need to address MY points first instead of obsessing over streets like a 5 year old. Grow up Lorna Puffkin.
DeleteEven if SNP and Greens provide a pro-independence majority, surely the SNP won’t make the mistake of allowing the Greens back into government? We’re still recovering from the damage they did during the disastrous Bute House agreement.
ReplyDeleteThe court case arising from their incompetence on the Bottle Deposit Scheme is ongoing. It could cost us, the tax payers, £280 million. And the gender shambles? And the wood burning stove shambles? And the gas boiler shambles? And the lukewarm attitude publicly expressed by Slater towards Independence? Best kept at a distance. If they are truly committed to Indy they will behave accordingly. No formal agreement of any sort.
DeleteThe BDS was not a shambles. It was a good plan deliberately scuppered by Westminster's Alister Jack. The rest, I agree, was pretty shambolic.
DeleteSlater had no paper trail to confirm that she had been liaising with Westminster on an ongoing basis, because she hadn’t. It made it easy for Westminster to withhold consent and not be seen to be unreasonable. Slater also issued an e mail reassuring the recycling company that they could proceed. That is at best naivety and in my opinion it was negligent. So while the scheme is an excellent idea, Slater was at fault. She lacks competence.
DeleteThe paper trail was in the recycling bin. Still Westminster deliberately delayed and scuppered the scheme which was good. Less litter on our streets etc. Westminster will shit on Scotland at any chance.
DeleteSwinney insists majority of pro-indy MSPs in 2026 should lead to referendum.
ReplyDeleteA “democratic majority” of pro-independence MSPs following the next Scottish Parliament election should result in another referendum on the constitutional question, John Swinney has said.
The SNP leader set out his views on the way forward for Scottish independence as he gathered his team of constituency candidates for next year’s Holyrood election.
Don't worry, 2029 will be the big push & if that doesn't work they'll crumble at the democratic mandate we'll achieve in 2031. I'm not sure why anyone is worried.
DeleteA lot of people seem to have just given up and are telling people to vote SNP for now and cross our fingers that they'll do something eventually. No need to push for change, it'll just magically happen and if you criticise them you're harming the cause.
ReplyDeleteI think we all know no Prime Minister is ever going to grant the request for another referendum. Why would they!?
The SNP aren't a new Party of Government just finding their feet and we just need to give them a chance... it's not unreasonable to expect them to have a viable strategy by now.
So what do you propose?
DeleteI have to agree. It’s all very depressing and it’s difficult to see a way forward.
Delete"So what do you propose?"
DeleteEither push heavily for the SNP to change or build up an alternative.
Too many seem to have a "don't rock the horses" attitude. A fear that if you criticise the SNP that'll harm their electoral chances, but that's the sort of mentality that's kept us in limbo for so long.
It's like they're content with 'We had a lively discussion at our local branch meeting' like that's enough.
DeleteWhy aren't SNP members fighting to take back their Party and to be bold? Also sorry James but you've hardly posted about the SNP either since you've re-joined, this platform could also be used to encourage members to fight for change for within.
Why aren’t non snp members fighting for a party…. Oh tried that one. Truth is and some posters on here detest it is the SNP are still the most popular party bar none in Scotland.
DeleteAnon at 11:04 AM
DeleteStupid divisive comment
once holyrood has a pro indy majority we can ran independence through
ReplyDeletefly to the UN tell them the UK no longer exists
I am sure this is what Swinney has in mind, grand strategist that he is
Not one realistic proposal from any of the SNP Baaad brigade. I am not excusing the lack strategy and urgency of the SNP but it’s tiresome reading scathing comments from the usual suspects on here when they have no ideas to progress Indy themselves. Put up or shut up.
ReplyDeleteThat's a daft comment as people have discussed de facto referendums, plebiscite elections, constitutional conventions etc previously at length.
DeleteBut whenever they're discussed they're immediately shot down as being unworkable and for reason less preferable to pursue than whatever the hell the current SNP strategy is
They're not shot down as being unworkable - it's because those presenting them as being workable know they're not as long as the country isn't gagging for independence and showing its committed to wanting it. The country isn't. All the pretendy we can get independence 'if' is word salad - and 'the SNp don't want indy are holding us back' is word spaghetti.
DeleteFor a lot of the loudest 'we're pure independistas all for independence first' - they're just agent provocateurs and distraction agents who couldn't care less if Holyrood stays or goes. When you hear so many alleged independence supporters yelling get rid of Holyrood, the SNP must be destroyed, all the putting the smell on John Swinney (where have we heard that one before) and replace the SNP leadership so that we can take over - none of that is about getting independence. When people say 'Give the SNP a kicking and don't turn out to vote' - that's nothing to do with any commitment to independence. The 'independence' narratives are tagged on to lure the ultra malleable. It's all clever stuff - but it isn't authentically related to getting independence.