Yes 49% (-)
No 51% (-)
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 33% (-3)
Reform UK 19% (+5)
Labour 19% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 11% (+2)
Conservatives 11% (-2)
Greens 5% (-)
Alba 1% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 29% (+1)
Reform UK 20% (+8)
Labour 18% (-4)
Conservatives 12% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
Greens 9% (-1)
Alba 3% (+1)
Seats projection: SNP 58, Reform UK 21, Labour 18, Conservatives 13, Liberal Democrats 10, Greens 8
There seems to be a small discrepancy in the seats projection - the combined numbers add up to 128 rather than 129. However, it's clear the SNP and Greens between them would have a pro-indy majority, albeit a small one.
More details and analysis to follow shortly...
JOHN Swinney has poured cold water on the idea of a convention of pro-independence parties ahead of the 2026 election, saying his SNP are “just going to go about doing really well politically”.
ReplyDeleteSeriously though, we're constantly being told that the Yes movement needs to come back together... what justification is there for there not to be a pro-independence convention that would allow exactly that to happen?
DeleteThe optics is that Swinney is putting Party before country and I don't see that message convincing all those apathetic people who didn't vote for them in the last General Election to do so in 2026.
Well, what do you think is better for Independence?
DeleteSNP 58, Reform UK 21, Labour 18, Conservatives 13, Liberal Democrats 10, Greens 8
or
SNP 68, Reform UK 11, Labour 18, Conservatives 13, Liberal Democrats 10, Greens 8
Not in SNP's interest to draw attention to electoral rivals.
DeleteTbh I care more about reassurance that steps will be taken to move us closer to independence rather the only difference between 2026-2031 from 2021-2026 is a different opposition.
DeleteAnon at 4.45 -- have you a reference for the quote, please, if it's a real one?
DeleteLook up: John Swinney has poured cold water on the SNP holding a 'pro-independence convention'
DeleteShould take you to The National article where Swinney is quoted.
https://archive.is/ybS3e
DeleteCracking numbers on the independence question. KC will be gutted.
ReplyDeleteI'm confused. I thought Yes was at 56% in a recent poll?
DeleteBloody hell. 56%? No wonder KC is gutted. For us lifelong unionists, zee vor eez over.
DeleteToilet boy will have to rethink his Rubicon theory on WGD.
DeleteRear Admiral Francis?
DeleteWas weighting still using 2014 data and if so what do the figures look like if that weighting is removed?
ReplyDeleteI see some of the usual rubbish from people who claim to support independence, but don't seem to understand how we might get there (i.e. Alba supporters).
ReplyDeleteIndependence is about creating a picture of a future Scotland. The role the SNP plays is in presenting a credible picture of what future Scottish government might look like. By necessity it cannot be as radical as some of us might want, and cannot do something stupid like declare UDI, because that would simply deter voters. It is the backbone to the independence movement and always will be. That is the SNPs function.
Salmond himself understood this before he got all bitter, and Sturgeon was simply continuing this strategy. I can understand the frustration, but did you seriously think it wasn't going to be a long hard battle? Did you think the British state would just roll over?
Swinney is correct to focus on rebuilding the movement, and that means first focussing on rebuilding the SNP itself after all the damage done by the bampot element.
If you are serious then get on board and actually work towards the next push, which will come. If not then stop wasting everyones time.
You have a great imagination! The rest of your posting is fine, but why ruin it with a silly bit of nonsense at the start?
Delete"I see some of the usual rubbish from people who claim to support independence, but don't seem to understand how we might get there (i.e. Alba supporters)."
Because I am sick to death of all the nonsense, and the damage it has done to the movement. if I didn't know otherwise I would think Alba was some sort of false flag operation.
DeleteAs Dick Gaughan put it, "There are No Gods, and Precious Few Heroes". Independence is about Scotland and not about one mans ego.
This is a time to begin to move forwards, not simply live in the past. But note that I say begin. It won't happen tomorrow, however much I might wish it happened yesterday.
The missing element that pisses a lot of people off due to its omission: What mechanism will be used for Scotland to become independent?
DeleteIt's all well and good to try to win support over to the Yes side but without a method to actually turn any support into something practical what's the point?
Vague promises, hopes & wishes that things will work themselves out & that all we need to do in the meantime is 'keep the faith' won't cut it.
Hell I think most wouldn't mind if it takes a while, most just want some kind of reassurance that a plan exists. A goal to work towards, not just leaving it for someone else to come along and sort out down the line.
The role the SNP plays is in presenting a credible picture of what future Scottish government might look like.
DeleteThat was happening 2021 - 2024 was it? The BHA was an absolute catastrophe for Scotland's credibility to run it's own affairs. 'Too stupid' was the English taunt and it actually felt like they had a point. It might take years of capable, stable government to undo the damage.
I've yet to see a single credible suggestion from those who criticise Sturgeon or Swinney. You want to do declare UDI? Sure what is stopping you doing it yourself? You expect other people to do what you yourself are scared to do?
DeleteAt present, the focus should be on building support again after all the damage that has been done by the Sean Clerkins of the world.
An opportunity for a new push will come, but it needs to be built on a solid foundation, not a bunch of wee idiots huddled around Ouija board.
The criticism is that the current strategy has hit a brick wall & all we're seeing is: We need to unite behind the strategy to continue slamming our head against a brick wall.
DeleteIt's not unreasonable to ask what the long-term strategy is beyond just 'building support'.
John McBarry, this was the last place I would have expected to meet a Boris Johnson fannoy. Are you feeling okay, or have you forgotten the small matter of a global pandemic, or that this was the time when support for indepence was at its highest?
DeleteUnionist troll at 6:48 PM
DeleteGood heartfelt reply to me at 6:16 PM
Anyway like I said it's the vagueness on the long-term strategy that annoys people.
DeleteIf it takes a while so be it, but we can't unite behind something that appears to not exist and we're just winging it as we go along. 'Building Support' is a Step 1 of a plan, not the end goal. Knowing that there's a Step 2 isn't unreasonable.
3% for alba, absolutely no chance of that.
ReplyDeleteSNP 33% and 29%. That is the result of dimwits like Declan supporting Sturgeon, Yousaf and Swinney. Own it you bunch of plonkers.
DeleteIndeed. It’s depressing.
DeleteYou very stupid people are part of the problem
DeleteThe bad news klaxon is sounding for KC and all unionists this evening. No wonder they're in hiding.
ReplyDelete