Tuesday: Stuart Campbell announces that polls show "there is no credible prospect" of retaining the pro-independence majority at the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. He goes on to say: "we’re going to call this one early: there is zero prospect of a pro-indy majority after the next Holyrood election. None. Barring a nuclear war or an alien invasion or some equally implausible revolutionary event, it’s simply not happening."
Saturday: Norstat poll shows the SNP and the Greens on course to retain the pro-independence majority in 2026.
Life comes at you fast these days.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot (Norstat/Sunday Times):
SNP 37% (+4)
Labour 21% (-2)
Conservatives 14% (-1)
Reform UK 12% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-)
Greens 5% (-1)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 32% (+3)
Labour 18% (-4)
Conservatives 16% (+2)
Reform UK 12% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
Greens 8% (-1)
Alba 5% (+2)
Scottish Parliament seats projection:
SNP 59
Labour 20
Conservatives 19
Reform UK 13
Liberal Democrats 11
Greens 7
TOTAL PRO-INDEPENDENCE SEATS: 66
TOTAL ANTI-INDEPENDENCE SEATS : 63
PRO-INDEPENDENCE OVERALL MAJORITY OF 3 SEATS
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 54% (+4)
No 46% (-4)
The independence numbers are a major and very pleasant surprise as far as I'm concerned - if this was an Ipsos poll, 54% for Yes would be within the normal range but in a Norstat poll it's absolutely exceptional. But in truth, regardless of Mr Campbell's ill-judged musings on Tuesday, the pro-indy majority in the seats projection shouldn't be such a huge shock. Labour have been clearly continuing to drift downwards in recent weeks in Britain-wide polls, and there was no particular reason to think that phenomenon wouldn't extend to Scotland or that the SNP wouldn't be a beneficiary.
That's the case for the prosecution, but admittedly there's also a case for the defence, which is that Norstat have perhaps tended to be a little bit more favourable to the SNP than other firms have been since the general election, so there's certainly no guarantee that a poll from a different firm would show a pro-indy majority in the seats projection. However, it's pretty likely (not certain) that any poll would show the same broad trend of a swing back from Labour to the SNP.
Although the pro-indy majority is the most striking feature of the poll, it's not the only remarkable possibility that has suddenly been brought into play. Labour have probably been assuming that, at worst, they would be guaranteed to overtake the Tories and become at least the second-largest party. That is now far from assured - although conversely, it can no longer be assured that the Tories will remain a larger force at Holyrood than Reform UK. If the Reform momentum continues, who knows, we could end up with a pro-indy majority government and a Faragist opposition.
One possibility that this poll very much does not bring into play, though, is a breakthrough on the Holyrood list for Alba. The Alba leadership are doing their normal thing of claiming that 5% in a Norstat poll is evidence of a stunning breakthrough, but don't be misled. There's a house effect in Norstat polls which has been seen since 2021, and which regularly and significantly overstates Alba support. When Alba are on 5% in a Norstat poll, the likelihood is that their true support is 2% or 3% at most, and that polls from other firms would show that sort of figure. Don't shoot the messenger here - any other polling analyst would tell you exactly the same.
Is the increase in Yes support genuine? It may well be, but I don't think there's enough evidence to say that for sure yet. The main supporting evidence is that the recent Survation poll for Progress Scotland also showed an uptick in the Yes vote, albeit with No remaining in a small lead. However, the small Yes lead in the Find Out Now poll a few weeks ago was actually fairly typical for that firm.
* * *
If you haven't yet seen my blogpost of last night, you can read it by following the link here: "BREAKING: It's expulsion - the Alba Party leadership's hypocrisy laid bare as they do EXACTLY to me what they spent Wednesday lambasting the SNP for doing to Angus MacNeil - I have been nominally found guilty of 'secret' charges that I am not allowed to know about and that I frankly do not believe even exist - I will be appealing but I am clearly dealing with kangaroo courts"
Being expelled from a political party due to a blatant vendetta on the part of the leadership is upsetting enough at the best of times, but the exact timing of Corri Wilson's email last night was also mildly inconvenient because I had been just about to sit down and write a blogpost about Nigel Farage's extraordinary surge in the "next Prime Minister" betting markets. 24 hours later than intended, here are the current numbers -
Nigel Farage 3.95
Kemi Badenoch 4.1
Kemi Badenoch 4.1
Yvette Cooper 15
Wes Streeting 15
Boris Johnson 15.5
Angela Rayner 18.5
Rachel Reeves 32
For the uninitiated, that means Farage, the leader of a party that currently has only five MPs (four fewer than the SNP), is the outright favourite to be Keir Starmer's successor as Prime Minister, and is estimated to have a roughly 25% chance of achieving that feat. These numbers take into account the possibility of Starmer being replaced by one of his Labour colleagues before the next election, so in practice that means Farage's chances of becoming PM at the time of the next election are rated as a bit higher than 25%.
I've felt for a while that most commentators are underestimating the chances of a Reform government, but I'd have to say the betting markets are going to the other extreme and overstating those chances. I'm wondering if some punters are still nursing the idea of a Reform-Tory merger with Farage emerging as leader, but I don't think that's at all likely. For Farage to become PM, Reform would actually have to win the next general election, and I don't see that as anything like a 25% or 30% shot. Maybe 10% would be a realistic estimate for now, which is plenty grim enough.
When I was growing up, people used to invoke Hitler as a rather improbable argument against proportional representation - ie. first-past-the-post would stop small extremist parties from ever gaining a foothold in parliament. But now we're seeing the flipside of the coin - once an extremist party becomes a decent size, first-past-the-post makes unfettered power with an outright majority of seats a real possibility for them. That would be very unlikely to happen under PR.
Great poll, all round.
ReplyDeleteTemperature in Bath now below zero.
Cue the angry 'anon brigade' on here 😂😂😂
Angry? Nah, just scunnered. You really think another term of this Scotgov is going to do a damn thing for independence? Tick tock and we'll all be deid. The Yessers I have known who have died since Indyref, it's appalling…
DeleteGet your thumb out, Swinney!
2026:
Delete"The Scottish people have spoken. Despite everything that's happened, and Farage leading in the UK polls, the bastards can't get rid of us and our government limps on in defiance! Put that right up your pipe and smoke it, Anas."
"This (1-2-3-4-) FIFTH! SNP led government is testament to the passion and determination and the settled will of Scots for independence. Let no one say we take our voters for Muppets. I will write a pointed letter to the beleaguered prime minister asking him for Section 30 today! Surely this time he will do the right thing and democracy will prevail."
"I know, I know. But whit else are you going to do? Now, about the Green policies on antidiscrimination against gender fluidity in primary education, I will hand over to Lorna Slater."
Just realised this is the third poll out of the last four that has failed to show a No lead. As a lifelong unionist, this concerns me greatly.
ReplyDeleteDesperately worrying.
DeletePunched the wall at this poll.
DeleteWhat's the point of this Britnat troll anyway? "Charlattans" and "Nessie", fine he likes the taste of his own pish. But what's this repetitive "Lifelong / Blighty" act besides cryptic masturbation?
DeleteDoes anyone get it?
Hurray! Today's mentioning 'charlatans' makes an early appearance. (Although spelled in an unorthodox manner.)
DeleteThe poor old "Reverend".
ReplyDeleteHe got the "Neil Gray is the next First Minister" prediction wrong in 2024.
He got the "Humza has lost" prediction wrong in 2023.
He got the "Biden has lost" prediction wrong in 2020.
And now this.
All the big calls wrong.
They don't call him Wrong Wings for nothing.
DeleteThey? You mean president elect Harris and former PM Ed Miliband?
DeleteThank Christ we Remained…
Just cali him a mug.
DeleteCredit where it’s due. He has cornered the market in taking money from mouth frothers and has a cult following that will believe anything he tells them. That’s a talent of sorts. But he has absolutely got all his major calls spectacularly wrong. He can cut and paste but that’s the extent of it.
DeleteThose are some encouraging numbers to put it mildly. Might we just be seeing the beginnings of some momentum behind the SNP and more importantly Yes?
ReplyDeleteWith Labour on the slide and Farage looming as PM-in-waiting, with no prospect of a reversal of Brexit in sight (if anything a toadying up to America seems more likely), perhaps some folk are newly willing to give the Indy alternative a chance. 10 years on from grudgingly giving the UK one more shot, maybe enough is finally enough for enough of us.
"May you live in interesting times"....... We have a positive alternative to Farage's offhand, soft fascism. Keep pushing for it.
ReplyDeleteDepends whether Reform stands in constituencies. If they don't, endorse one other party and their voters listen, it upturns any seat prediction.
ReplyDeleteThree ropes and an untold number of eggs!
DeleteTice has already signalled they're leaning towards a "Lab 1, Ref 2" strategy in Scotland. That may change, but I suspect not - if unionist candidates fail to win enough constituencies, they'll be compensated with list seats which might otherwise go to Reform.
Deletereform is the only political party that has tax dodging as its economic policy
DeleteThey have been very good at it so far, after 2015 terrified them into action.
ReplyDeleteThis time, though it might be harder. Reform's an unknown quantity. Right now, they're pulling former SNP support about as much as Labour. Those voters obviously wouldn't be motivated to vote Tory or whoever just to keep the Nats out, as Yessers themselves.
Not true. SNP vote holding firm. Maybe ALBA’s right wing is defecting?
Deletewhy vote reform? if you want to suck english cock you can go and do a degree at cambridge
DeleteMmm methinks it might be time for police Scotland to release some damning information about the SNP, you know damage control ?.
ReplyDeleteI’m amazed they haven’t already prosecuted and convicted people with the wealth of evidence given to them by IFS and his pal. One could almost believe the people who say they make things up and talk bullshit.
Deletenikki will never be prosecuted by people she gave jobs to - are you thick; one hand washes the other
DeleteAnon as 2. 53. Tell us all who these people are that she gave jobs too? Unless of course you made that up as well. You would seem to be on thin ice calling other people thick. Another fantasist.
DeleteYou made this up. There is no evidence of former SNP voters going to reform in any numbers. You are a silly billy in more ways than one.
ReplyDeleteSo now another council labour leader under investigation. Not one blue tent in the garden so far, tv cameras outside or a whole police shift marching up and down outside the leaders home. Somebody in Police Scotland has been slacking.
ReplyDeleteAye and still we wait for the outcome of Branchform. Let’s hope and pray it’s not too bad.
Deletelabour boy was trying to pump ukie skanks - the murrells were stealing
DeleteIf it’s found the complainants to branchform have been wasting police time will they be prosecuted?
ReplyDeletePolice Scotland charging themselves with wasting police time !
DeletePurely for arguments sake say this poll reflects the actual results: What happens next?
ReplyDeleteWe keep hearing that the SNP winning again is good for Yes but what's the actual plan to achieve independence? It's quite an important question to know the answer to & we can't be expected to just 'keep the faith' and hope it will sort itself out eventually.
John Swinney will kindly ask his new pal Sir Keir Starmer for a Section 30 Order and then everyone in the SNP will have faux outrage when it's denied. They'll use that anger to kick-start the 2029 General Election campaign as if we elected a majority of SNP MPs that'll really show them we mean business and they'll have to give in next time!
DeleteThen if they say no again that will fuel the 2031 campaign. Rinse and repeat.
Looks like you have no ideas.
Deletewhen we win another mandate westminsters position will be untenable
Deleteuntenable means = lying on its back, legs in the air, pissing itself laffing with the big middle finger
DeleteAnon @1:50 PM
DeleteI've got a luxury campervan to sell you.
Stolen from a police garage. Brit nat thieves.
DeleteI fear the day of reckoning is getting close.
DeleteOnly a few points away, KC.
DeleteAnon @ 1:47 PM
DeleteThose we elect to lead us are the ones who are supposed to have the ideas for how they will implement their policies.
We don't vote for people on vague promises that it'll work itself out.
‘What Scotland Thinks’ has the independence poll numbers including undecided voters as: Yes 51 (+4); No 43 (+4); Don’t know 5 (nc).
ReplyDeleteThat’s the first 50%+ (inc. undecideds) since Jan 2024 with Ipsos; the highest since Nov 2023 (51%; Ipsos) and the highest with Norstat/Panelbase since Nov 2020 (51%).
Looks like IFS has gone to ground.
ReplyDeleteHe won’t be happy with this poll, that’s for sure.
He'll be greetin in his porridge with his ISP buddies.
DeleteAlec Lomax. I noted that Ifs has called you the king of the snidey one liners. You continue to provide evidence that he is correct. In addition I noted you never post anything but snidey one liners. You are a very immature person. Autistic?
DeleteBack in the 90s he sent me a Xmas card one September. He's nuts!
DeleteAutistic? I think your personal attack shows a lack of judgement and tact. Something ifs appears to support.
ReplyDeleteAnd you sir are obsessed with ifs. A weird obsession.
DeleteAin't it truly amazing, that on a site like this, the mere publishing of a VERY POSITIVE poll for Indy Supporters either elicits NEGATIVE responses or complete indifference, from a small clique of OTT SNP-Haters?
ReplyDeleteOf course you would expect exactly that kind of reaction from the VERY obvious Anon-Yoon-Clowns on here, but from so-called 'Yessers'..........???
Sometimes feels a wee bit like I am on a SIU blog.
Weird, innit.................
Just my opinion, of course.
You should have stayed on the SIU blog. You are not fooling anybody. Troublemaker.
DeleteJust saying what I see and, unlike anon-cowards, not afraid to put my name to my thoughts.
DeleteBTW - SIU Blogs are always good for a belly-laugh or ten.
Highly recommended on a slow day.
You are right. The Indy brigade on here led by IFS has no interest in promoting Indy. They are trolls, nothing more.
DeleteA positive poll no doubt. Much needed in these very difficult times for the Yes movement.
DeleteI think the poll is a bit too SNP / Indy positive. But a good sign
ReplyDeleteIf we accept that Westminster will never agree another indyref then we need some version of UDI. It will be a game of tactics and chicken with WM.
So those people that said ‘we need to get Indy support to close to 60%’ were probably right. I think Jim Sillars was one such person. And the SNP needs a leader that’s good at political gamesmanship
Though if this poll comes to past it will be an endorsement of John Swinney's leadership. Why would you get rid of your leader after they've won an election?
DeleteBut pretty much everyone outside of the Parliamentary SNP Party agrees that he's the wrong man to take on Westminster to progress the case of independence. He's far too timid, cautious and risk averse. But if he's seen to be leading a devolved administration reasonably competently there wouldn't really be a way to force him out.
Swinney is totally wrong for that job. But we won’t be the only people that realise that
DeleteSwinney himself is likely to understand his own limitations. He can retire and hand the reigns to someone with the right skills
Swinney is presently the most popular political leader with Scottish voters - 10 points ahead of Sarwar and 25 points ahead of Starmer.
DeleteNot bad at all.
Is he really that selfless though? There's a reason why he was by Nicola's side during her entire tenure.
DeleteI always thought Sillars was a Unionist plant.
Delete11.52pm. Thinking clearly is not one of your strengths.
DeleteGamesmanship is too closely associated with unethical behaviour. We need honest forthright politicians who will do the simple things. Where is the bullet point list of the benefits of Indy? Where is the Minister for Independence? Where is the department to counter BBC and MSM lies and disinformation? A politician who starts asking these questions, and keeps asking them, in a very loud voice, is what we need.
DeleteAnon at 9.37. He’s an elected SNP politician and a minister. Where else would he be you muppet?
ReplyDelete