Just a quick note to let you know I have a new article at The National about the new Norstat poll showing that Yes would decisively win any new independence referendum, and that the SNP and Greens are on course to retain the overall pro-independence majority at Holyrood. You can read the piece HERE.
Incidentally, it's been pointed out numerous times today that 54% is the highest Yes vote in any Norstat/Panelbase poll since four years ago. It suddenly dawned on me that poll four years ago was actually commissioned by Scot Goes Pop. It was a Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop poll conducted between the 5th and 11th of November 2020, and it showed Yes on 56% and No on 44%. Maybe, just maybe, those days are back.
Here’s hoping this poll is a sign of things to come and it isn’t just an outlier.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you that it's probably a sign of things to come.
DeleteYou struggled with statistics then. 1 doesn’t make a trend.
DeleteOne KC comment is always a trend.
DeleteWe've been here before so you're right to be cautious. Norstat and Survation appear to be trending upwards recently whilst Ipsos (52%), Find-Out-Now (52%) and Renfield & Wilson (49%) have been relatively stable through this year at around 50% on average. Yougov, as ever, shows YES lagging at 46% over the piece in 2024 (to date).
ReplyDeleteBut the Scottish Government have yet to identify a credible process by which the return of Scotland's nation-state status is achieved.
Until they do - and commit to it - they will be unable to harness any uptick in Independence support which will likely then prove to be temporary as has happened previously.
Duncanio you better watch out David Francis ( the new self appointed site moderator ) will be along soon to tell you to stop being negative.
DeleteWelcome to you, David! Your moderation work is badly needed.
DeleteIf there is an uptick in Yes support: what on god's green Scotland is causing it? What event has taken place to persuade people towards us?
DeleteA credible narrative—a popular new SNP leader for instance, or a major scandal for Anas Sarwar—would make sense. In 2020, when we had the lead, it was Covid shifting people's minds. What would push us over the edge right now?
The death and funeral of Alex Salmond, recognisably as Scotlands best leader, allied to the BBC’s shabby send-off.
DeleteThe wretched Anas Sarwar, figuratively always on his knees. The “change” promised being small change or no change at all.
Sir Keir with all the charm of a used car salesman.
So I reached out for an uptick and leaned into it.
DeleteI agree we should be cautiously optimistic about this very positive poll and look for more of the same.
ReplyDeleteI also agree, as I have previously stated, the the SNP (of which I am a Member) needs a good kick up the erse in respect of their Indy plans and timeframe.
However, I also think the SNP are beginning to get their act together on the issues which matter most to Scots in the present tight times and are hopefully paving the way for another Pro-Indy Majority Scottish Parliament in 2026 - without which, our preferred end-game becomes totally impossible politically.
A key issue the SNP will face: How will the 2026 campaign be different from the 2021 campaign especially in regards to the independence question?
DeleteThere comes a point when you keep repeating the same messaging and nothing changes people stop believing you. To many they don't want to be thinking they'll still be in the exact same position again in 2031 being asked to vote to keep the dream alive. None of us are getting any younger!
Agreed, which is why I said the SNP need a good kick up the erse in that regard.
DeleteDavid, you seem to be a serious chap. Whose erse is going to be kicked? Who is going to do the kicking? Is it you? When will this happen? Will one kicking suffice? Why has nobody else come up with such an ingenious plan for independence? I can’t wait for it to happen. You are a modern day William Wallace. Respect.
DeleteWell Robert, there are certainly a lot of half-baked 'plans' of how to get us quickly to Indy floating around, but as far as I am concerned, none will get us there. Most are complete non-starters.
DeleteIt is certainly WAY above my pay-grade to come up with one.
I am old enough, though, to remember being categorically told, multiple times in my youth, that there was absolutely NO chance whatever of the Scottish Parliament being resurrected, not only during my lifetime, but EVER - in fact even the very idea was completey ridiculed as pure fantasy.
But it happened - and it only happened because a large majority of Scots wanted it to happen.
THAT was the key.
I have wanted Indy for well over 40 years now and dearly wish there WAS a quick way to get it, after losing the 2014 Referendum and given the various legal blocks we now face..... but I don't believe there is.
Whether SNP will prove me wrong, I do not know.
I hope so, but I do not know.
What I DO know however, is that the answer will not be found on sites like Wings or through parties like Alba, or through the nihilistic naysayers on here.
They simply do not matter one jot, to the vast majority of Scots or even Scottish Yessers.
As far as 'kicking' the SNP - I already do that at my local councillor level, at meetings and have done exactly that on the earlier feedback facility to the Party. I will continue to do so.
But I also know that without a strong SNP, there will be NO way to Independence, irrespective of what gibbering idiots like Campbell and his festering wee clique spout.
So, my 'kicking' will continue to be in the friendliest of manners.
Issue is many see "kicking the SNP" as harming the SNP and insist that you shouldn't rock the boat as anything that could potentially put the SNP in a negative light could harm the Party in future elections.
DeleteNo Party is immune to lethargy and no Party should be immune to being kick-started every so often.
DeleteDoes them good.
Last comment was mine.
ReplyDeleteFingers slipped on identity.
Why are you posting as Robert Hastie and replying to yourself calling yourself a modern day William Wallace? Delusions of grandeur!
DeleteThe fuck are you gibbering about???
DeleteThe IFS brigade has been called in for a debriefing. Their lords and masters are not happy bunnies. Expect an onslaught of abuse and personal attack. Incoming!!!!
ReplyDeleteHe asked Hector Simpson if his wife would like a Persian cat. Hector's a widower. I call that callous.
DeleteDoes no one talk to you in the pub? Seek help. Your wee empty heid needs it.
DeleteCelina sees himself as witty and urbane. That’s desperately sad.
DeleteBetter news regarding the polls although I am always surprised there are some Scots who vote for unionist parties condemning us to be governed by England.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like independence is the settled will of the Scottish people.
ReplyDeleteYes.
DeleteI wonder why the poll isn’t listed on Wikipedia page yet. Are they getting slower or will it not be listed there at all?
ReplyDeleteI checked earlier and the Holyrood numbers were up but not the indy numbers. They're just being slow.
DeletePolitical parties aside this is Scotland sticking its middle finger up to England's union
ReplyDeleteThis is well OT but one of the best articles I've read from the Herald:
ReplyDeletehttps://archive.is/VRNBS
"These Scottish landmarks can be seen from outer space"
This is the 6th poll this year showing a Yes lead, out of 34 !!!
ReplyDeleteThree out the last four polls have Yes at 50% or above.
ReplyDeleteWhat exactly IS the democratic route to letting Scots have their say on this, a full decade after the 2014 Indyref?
DeleteBecause there were 19 polls in-a-row, over several months, in 2020/21, with Yes consistently above 50%.
That was simply ignored by WM.
Lol.
ReplyDeleteAnon tosser @ 6.39 -
You don't get to second guess the polls, Dummy.
"Poll results are poll results" - as per the best psephologist in the UK, ProfJohn Curtice.
Now, Dummy - answer the question.......if we get another substantial run of polls with Yes over 50%, HOW do Scots get their democratic chance again?
David Francis,
DeleteI repeat, the period you refer to was during Covid, when Sturgeon was doing her pathetic grandstanding, trying to make out Scotland was doing better than England, which was utter bollocks. Obviously thousands of gullible fools fell for the nonsense but thankfully most now see it for what it was.
It’s what Nats do. There’s no limits to how low they’ll stoop.
Stop making a fool of yourself for pity’s sake!
Wrong, you ignoramus.
DeleteLet's look at what The UK's National Statistician ( who is in charge of ALL UK statistics) told the Covid Inquiry.
"The UK Covid Inquiry was told -
In a written closing statement on behalf of Scottish ministers, previous evidence from the UK’s National Statistician Sir Iain Diamond was referenced to show the differences across four nations.
Diamond’s evidence showed that Scotland had a MUCH LOWER Age-standardised Mortality Rates (ASMRs) than England, Wales and Northern Ireland, per 100,000 people.
ASMRs are a weighted average, where proportions are measured against the corresponding age group’s standard population size."
I think Sir Iain Diamond outranks you pal.
Now.......I repeat my question to you - HOW do Scots exercise their democratic right to choose whether to leave this farce of a union, if we AGAIN elect a Pro-Indy Parl in 2026 and AGAIN have a consistent run ov Yes polls above 50%?
Delete"The written evidence set out to explain whether or not the current devolution set up, and the ability of Scottish ministers to make their own decisions, helped to save lives.
“This is a complex question, but we can begin to answer it by considering the Age-standardised Mortality Rates (ASMRs) for the four nations, across the period of the pandemic,” it reads.
“Age-standardised Mortality Rates are a better measure of mortality than numbers of deaths, as they account for the population size and age structure and provide more reliable comparisons between groups or over time.
“When considering the outcome of the pandemic across the four nations, Sir Iain Diamond detailed that England had the highest Age-standardised Mortality Rates for deaths involving COVID-19 of the four nations, 145.0 per 100,000 people followed by Wales (144.6), Northern Ireland (130.7) and Scotland (124.9), between March 2020 and February 2022."
D Francis calling someone else an ignoramus!
DeleteYou couldn’t make it up.
Anon at 9-03 does have a point, in all fairness. And indy support was artificially high during that Covid time
DeleteLol.
ReplyDeleteOne Anon Ignoramus Tosser agreeing with another Anon Ignoramus Tosser?
Or just with themselves???
Once again, James.........please GET RID of these irrelevant Anon COWARDS, for once and for all.
Surely if people want to post as anonymous it’s up to them!
DeleteCertainly not D Francis.
It is 100% up to James Kelly.
ReplyDeleteHis site, his decision - and my opinion on it, stands.
You’re entitled to your opinion.
DeleteAgree with David Francis re Anon posters. It’s ridiculous at times.
ReplyDelete