Thursday, November 12, 2020

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll: History made again as the pro-independence vote rises to 56% - the highest ever in a Panelbase poll, and in any online poll conducted by a BPC-affiliated firm

I seem to have set expectations sky-high with my video teaser this morning, so I hope you're all happy with this outcome - Yes have hit 56% in our latest exclusive Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll, and that's an all-time high in Panelbase polling. 

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll)

Yes 56% (+1) 
No 44% (-1)  

(Before Don't Knows are excluded, the figures are Yes 51%, No 40%. The fieldwork was conducted between the 5th and 11th of November, and 1020 respondents were interviewed. Percentage changes are measured from the most recent Panelbase poll, which was commissioned by Business for Scotland in August.) 

It's been obvious from social media, and also from one or two posters on the comments section of this blog, that unionists have been frantically looking for some signs of hope that the Yes majority might be narrowing slightly as the autumn wears on, and as they've continued chipping away at Nicola Sturgeon over her handling of the pandemic. They certainly won't find any such hope in this poll. Technically a 1% increase isn't statistically significant and might potentially be explained by margin of error 'noise', but anything outside a polling firm's normal range ought to make us sit up and take notice, however small the movement needed to get there. This is the eighth Panelbase poll in this calendar year, and the sequence of results for Yes is 52-49-50-52-54-54-55-56. That does not look like a Yes vote that has started to drift downwards after peaking in the summer. Quite the reverse. And it also shouldn't be forgotten that until relatively recently Panelbase were actually on the No-friendly end of the spectrum, and for several years regularly showed the Yes vote hovering in the lowly 43-45% range. We've come a long, long way since then. 

This is a landmark poll in quite a few ways - 

* It's the highest ever Yes vote in a Panelbase poll. 

* It's the highest ever Yes vote in a poll conducted online by any British Polling Council-affiliated firm. 

* It's the joint-highest ever Yes vote in any sort of credible online poll (it's only equalled by the recent JL Partners poll). 

* It's the joint second-highest Yes vote in any credible poll conducted by any firm (only surpassed by last month's famous Ipsos-Mori poll, which of course was conducted by telephone). 

Drilling into the details, we see a now-familiar pattern. Yes command the support of a very impressive 42% of people who voted Labour in 2019, and 28% of people who voted Liberal Democrat - the latter can probably be explained by the impossibility of Scotland rejoining the EU if it remains part of the UK. Almost one-quarter (23%) of No voters from the 2014 referendum are now in the Yes column, whereas only 8% of Yes voters have moved in the opposite direction. And the gender gap of days gone by has essentially vanished - 56% of men and 55% of women support independence. 

We also have voting intention numbers for both Westminster and Holyrood. The SNP remain in an utterly commanding position, although understandably the figures don't quite match the almost absurd heights that were recorded when Panelbase last asked these questions for the Sunday Times in the early summer.

Scottish voting intentions for Westminster: 

SNP 50% (-3) 
Conservatives 21% (n/c) 
Labour 20% (+1) 
Liberal Democrats 5% (-1) 
Greens 2% (n/a) 

Westminster seats projection (with changes from 2019): SNP 56 (+8), Conservatives 2 (-4), Labour 1 (n/c), Liberal Democrats 0 (-4) 

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot: 

SNP 53% (-2) 
Conservatives 21% (+1) 
Labour 18% (+3) 
Liberal Democrats 5% (-1) 
Greens 3% (n/c) 

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot: 

SNP 46% (-4) 
Conservatives 20% (+2) 
Labour 17% (+2) 
Greens 8% (n/c) 
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)  

Scottish Parliament seats projection (with changes from 2016): SNP 71 (+8), Conservatives 25 (-6), Labour 19 (-5), Greens 9 (+3), Liberal Democrats 5 (n/c) 

So in contrast to the recent Survation poll, the Tories are clinging on to second place, but it's reasonable to suggest they're now in some danger of ceding their position as the largest opposition party next May. 

A few days ago, you might have seen a rather amusing meltdown from several hard-core unionists on Twitter, who had taken this poll and were angrily brandishing screenshots of the 'shockingly biased' supplementary questions (most of which were written by me, but Panelbase also added on a few questions for a different client). I'm totally comfortable with the wording of those questions, which you'll be seeing over the coming days, but for now what I'd say is this: regardless of your opinion of those questions, it makes literally no difference whatsoever to the credibility of the headline Yes/No results, because Panelbase - like all reputable pollsters - always ask the main voting intention questions before any of the other questions. So respondents cannot be skewed or influenced in any way.

You may have seen that, just by chance, YouGov conducted an independence poll with almost identical fieldwork dates, and showed a slightly different result, with the Yes vote dipping a little from 53% to 51%.  The fact that we have two polls conducted at the same time, with both showing minor margin of error changes in different directions, suggests to me that the situation on the ground has remained pretty steady since Yes reached its new high watermark during the summer.  So as enjoyable as it is watching the likes of Andrew Bowie 'celebrating' a poll showing a Yes majority, they're probably barking up the wrong tree.

There are plenty more results to come from the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll - if you'd like to be the first to hear about them, you can follow me on Twitter HERE.


  1. Since this is only 50% SNP on the constituency, does it mean no mandate for independence if that had been the manifesto promise?

    I can understand why unionists are pushing this.

    Of course taking into account the greens it's 52% (same on the list), but you can see why unionists prefer that to 56%. Gives them more of a chance; Yes parties normally poll lower than Yes itself.

    Hence 'Give up on a referendum! You need to move to plan B!'.

    1. SSS - provide a date for a referendum and a promise that if it does not happen you will never post on any website again - ever - and under any name. At least there would be something good when the ref does not happen.

      Go on then you changed your tune from another 5 years of Tory rule just to make sure that the referendum is won ( how SSS thinks he can forecast 5 years hence ) to "shortly after the May 2021 election". So tell us when it is going to happen - time is getting short already for 2021 - when in 2021 is the referendum?

      Or are you just like Sturgeon - all talk.

    2. SSS - cat got your tongue - not that confident are you!

      You are all talk.

    3. Sturgeons Scottish Skier Shill - SSSS - I think you shill for the SNP leadership. All you do is punt the fairytale of a refendum just over the next hill.

  2. Hooray! Onwards and upwards!πŸ™‚

  3. Hooray! Onwards and upwards! πŸ™‚

  4. "Yes command the support of a very impressive 42% of people who voted Labour in 2019"

    Which is why we should beware of 'independence supporters' (ahem) abusing these people by calling them 'britnats'.

    1. Labour is a british nationalist party. That's just a fact.

      Also a fact is that N Sturgeon tried to have Alex Salmond imprisoned using her office of First Minister then repeatedly lied to parliament about her knowledge.

      She's toast. Which makes any pre-election polling moot.

      BTB. Why does Kelly.J support the massive election fraud ongoing in the USA while being so resolutely against a 2nd independence supporting party,describing it as some sort of cheating?

    2. SSS - I call them confused colonial Britnats - they say they want independence but they vote for a British party that is against independence and wants to keep Scotland as a colony - aye right - nonsense. Just a bunch of phoney independence supporters just like SSS.

    3. Only unionists abuse people who support or are considering voting for independence.

    4. SSS - you are all just talk - and it is all nonsense that comes out from your multiple personalities. When are you writing to Black, Wishart, Whitford and MacAskill to tell them they are all unionists as well.

      Hey diddy if you vote for a British party you are a Britnat and that's a fact.

    5. I am very glad you are not in charge of Scottish government indy strategy IfS.

      Insulting your voters / potential voters is never a wise move.

      See, for example, Boris insulting Scots unionists by saying he doesn't respect them / their vote. He gave Yes its majority.

    6. SSS- every one of your multiple personalities must have reading difficulties. I have never claimed to be a politician.

      "He gave yes its Majority" I thought it was super Sturgeon you said. You post a load of unsubstantiated drivel.

      So just when is this referendum taking place? - too scared to take up the challenge. You are just all talk and most of that is total drivel.

  5. I still cannot believe Ian Murray commands any respect in Edinburgh South, but it keeps on hanging in there. I despair at times, but hey-ho, away we go.

    1. Historically, independents (which is what Murray is) last for no more than two terms. Then the voters tend to revert to previous voting patterns.
      Even last ditch unionists can see that independence is indeed the settled will of the Scottish people and some at least will turn their backs on an increasing angry and embittered union. I know some will say that Margo and Denis Canavan bucked the trend as independents, but both of them were relentlessly positive.
      Murray's Union jaikit is hingin by a thread. And he kens it.

  6. Speaking as someone who wants to remain in the UK, if both the SNP and the Greens both stand on a clear commitment to hold a indyref2 and get a majority I try think that it should happen. If the SNP do it alone and get a majority alone then it should happen.

    I think if it does happen the only hope the UK has to continue is with one of these moves:

    1) require a majority of the entire electorate to vote to leave, not just a simple majority but a ‘supermajority’.
    2) add a third option of Full Fiscal Autonomy to win back enough Soft Nationalists to keep the union going in a very loose form.
    3) keep delaying long enough to force a Catalonia-style vote with many unionists boycotting and a very low turnout, without international recognition.

    My preference is for option 2. At least then I can still keep a bit of a British identity.

    1. Option 2 = The Vow2 and just like Vow1 the Britnats will never honour it. You cannae trust a Britnat.

      Right now the Britnats in Westminster are moaning about the Chinese breaking a treaty. The Britnats break treaties all the time - Britnats are hypocrites. Any independence supporter that trusts Britnats to honour any agreement re independence are silly and naive. They did not honour the Edinburgh Agreement in 2014.

    2. Some thoughts in return:

      1) Well, only 44.8% of eligible Scots voted for the UK in 2014, so independence it is then! :-) After all, indy is the normal status for Scotland historically, so a supermajority should be needed to stay in the UK....

      2) I suspect that ship has sailed. FFA would have been what to do after 2014. Labour should have championed it with the libs and tried to bring the Tories on board. However, even then, brexit would probably have made it unworkable anyway. Scotland trying to stay in the EU really requires indy.

      3) Isn't possible if a majority of Scots support indy, polls show it, and they keep electing pro-indy parties. Boycotting is likely to be confined to a tiny % and only really works if a minority is trying to force something on a majority. If Scots want a referendum and want indy, boycotting just isn't a viable strategy; all you do is make the Yes vote bigger. If the vote is unwanted / forced on Scotland, they boycotting makes sense. Scots do respect each other and will respect a Holyrood mandate for an iref2. Unionist and nationalist alike will vote in it and ignore what England says.

      Catalonia was different. Firstly, it isn't an internationally recognized country in the way Scotland is and has been historically. France doesn't play Catalonia in the 5 nations etc.. De Gaule personally thanked Scotland for the liberation of France....Also, a majority don't back indy consistently, Yes parties don't always get majorities, and the referendum was disrupted by Spain sending in jackboots. If they hadn't sent in the stormtroopers, there may well have been a decent enough turnout to say the result was fairly legit. So Spain beat up old ladies etc; they knew they had to disrupt the vote as boycotting by some hardline unionists would likely not be enough.

      If Scotland holds a referendum and it looks like a decent turnout will occur, England would need to do a Spain and send in English jackboots to violently disrupt it, otherwise it will represent the will of the people. Hell, even if English law said it wasn't legal, it wouldn't matter if it did clearly represent the will of the people. Disrupting with jackboots stops this by making the result uncertain and not free and fair.

      And your identity is your own; nobody can take it from you. Even if Scotland remains in the union, I will not be British in identity, but just Scottish (only) as I always have been. I do understand why some people feel 'Scottish & British', even if I don't. I, after all, have a dual nationality too; Scottish and Irish. With a French wife + Scottish-French daughter...

    3. Sadly full fiscal autonomy under the current Union would not work as the waters would be retained, classed as a UK territori resource and the taxes ould accrue to WM. We would still be required to pay for UK wife infrastructure and repay debts on things like xrail that do ot benefit Scotland. Part of the issue with GERS is the loading of debt that would not change. Perfidious Albion can never be trusted as the saying goes.

    4. Union 2.0 you missed out our preferred option, probably on purpose.

      4. Independence, then negotiate a Free Trade Agreement with anyone we want including our neighbours to the South. Of course any FTA would have to be ratified by referendum of the residents of Scotland and it would include a "Continuation Date" requiring further Referendums in the future, for its continuance.

    5. Thanks for the replies & fully respect your principles & opinions (as you can tell I’m getting more nervous about the polling).

      This current UK govt is doing such a poor job (except for Sunak) and is fuelling independence support. Which is why we should share defence, the currency and foreign affairs; that’s about it. I passionately believe that’s the way forward.

      Stay safe everyone & take care.

    6. Full autonomy is not possible in the UK and the UK Gov't has no authority to alter the meaning of democracy. A 'supermajority' is just a way of saying 'No democracy for you, Jocks'.

    7. We’re not going to ‘leave’.
      We are going to dissolve the Union. Talking of us ‘leaving’ is like John Major talking about a confirmatory referendum so that we can approve ‘what we have been offered under the terms of separation’
      It’s like bringing the language of apartheid into the reconciliation process. Doesn’t work.

    8. I prefer the term "withdraw".
      Two states Scotland and England signed the 1707 treaty of Union.
      If Wales and NI wish to stay under London rule after we become independent then that's their right.
      However I'm sure they'll both be clamouring for fundamental new arrangements when Scotland joins EU/efta.
      It'll be the end of England's empire and the pretence that there's ever been an actual union. Roll on that day.

    9. Question for Union 2.0. In your heart of hearts do you honestly see Labour forming the next Westminster government. If so will they need SNP support and that will cost a referendumunless we're already Indy? If they don't then surely all your wishes for FFA etc are a busted flush anyway? In any negotiation you always start with your strongest position. For Scotland that is a vote for Independence

  7. 14 pro independence polls in a row. Guess what the Herald is saying: independence support shrinks!!!!!!

  8. "1) require a majority of the entire electorate to vote to leave, not just a simple majority but a ‘supermajority’."

    Why didn't we have this for the EU ref?

    1. "require a majority of the entire electorate to vote No/for the UK, not just a simple majority but a ‘supermajority'"

      I wish this had applied in 2014!

    2. We should have done that with the EU referendum. The UK government didn’t think they’d lose so didn’t legislate for it! Both in 2014 and 2016.

      Such a massive constitutional change like leaving the EU should have required a supermajority.

      By the way I have always campaigned for FFA as the way forward to unite Yes & No.

    3. If unionist parties want to hold an iref in Scotland with a supermajority clause, they simply need to win an election here and go right ahead.

      Using the same right, the SNP could stand on a 'supermajority' ticket for iref2, i.e. that a supermajority need to back continuation of UK membership or Scotland reverts back to the normal historical state of indy (the union is a recent, quite short duration part of Scottish history).

      As for UK governments... they have the remit for UK-wide referendums, but not for Scottish only ones. Scottish (only) votes are devolved matter, UK votes a reserved one.

      Scots should, if necessary, boycott any referendum a UK government tried to force on them alone. A boycott would definitely work in this instance.

      A referendum will only have a democratic mandate if it is organised by the people themselves. Ergo, a Scottish iref must come about by the vote of Scots for that. Whoever organises it should have a mandate from Scots to do so. If not, then it can be boycotted.

  9. England won't want to face Scotland in a penalty shoot out next yearπŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚

  10. Scotland going to Europe!

    It's a sign. ;-)

    It's been 23 years since we've been kicked out in the first round of a footie tournament! Cannae wait! πŸ™‚

    Perfect timing for iref2.

    1. SSS says - " Perfect timing for iref2" - so when is this referendum? If it is perfect timing the presumption is you know when it will happen. Too scared to take the challenge. You haven't a clue have you.

    2. You haven't a clue Skier - you are nothing but a Sturgeon fanboy shill.

  11. Ha ha.

    Did he superpredict this?

    'Dominic Cummings to leave Downing Street by Christmas'

  12. Have yougov gone back to chiseling their polls as they did in 2014 the Kelner effect. So on the same day we get the highest poll ever the yougov poll is a reduction yeah right

  13. It's been 23 years since Scotland last voted yes in a (more) independence referendum. Good to see that wait for international qualification coming to an end.

    Going to be politically important to stand among the nations of Europe on the international stage next year, both at home and abroad.

    You can be absolutely sure no 10 did not want the 'british' team to win last night's penalty shoot out.

  14. The other classic unionist giveaway is England.

    They think about England a lot, particularly when it comes to sports. They love to see Scotland beating England at the footie etc; it's British sibling rivalry.

    By contrast, us Scottish indy supporters are not British so don't feel that. France...England...Germany...Spain...just another good European team that will likely whip us, so if we win or draw, it's cause for real celebration.

    Last night, Scots indy supporters thought 'Wahey, we're going to Europe!'. Unionists immediately thought 'And we're playing our brother/sister England in the group stages; be great if we beat them!'.

    It's a dead giveaway. If someone you know rabbits on about the Scotland vs England always hoping that England loses and laughs when they do...probability is they are a Brit unionist.

    If it's all much of a muchness to them, they're a Scot open to indy.

    1. Four comments in a row from poppy rather confirms what I said was correct.

    2. The fact that unionists really believe that Scottish indy supporters relish beating England more than any other team shows how little they understand their opponents, and as a result, Scotland is slipping from their grasp.

  15. Support for the union super soft if a 22%+ lead can vanish that easily.

  16. UK government reporting that cases in the rUK are 77% higher than in Scotland over the past week per capita.

    Huge spike in England yesterday.

    1. Covid hospital admissions in Scotland falling rapidly, having peaked with cases a few weeks back.

      This is one of the most accurate measures of infection prevalence as it is not affected by e.g. testing artefacts; it is essentially a direct function of the severity of the outbreak.

      Deaths should start falling sharply too soon; these lag behind admissions by a few weeks.

    2. rUK reported cases were 137% higher than for Scotland on the 12th of November 2020.

    3. Thankfully this looks to be due to large amount of back dated cases rather than an large increase in the days cases.

      More generally Wales and Northern Ireland’s firebreak/lockdown looks to of done its job and help send cases down in the right direction last week. Things look like they are starting to level off a touch in England, hopefully the effects of the lockdown there will start to be reflected in the case figures over the next could of weeks.

      As for Scotland after a couple of weeks of cases levelling off or maybe even dropping a touch there was a noticeable uptick in cases last week; this increase obviously picked up by the Scot Gov hence the increase in restrictions in some areas announced this week and the possibility of some areas moving into Level four next.

  17. We can't rely solely on the arrogance, ignorance and incompetence of british nationalists to make Scotland's independence a certainty.

  18. Hey SSSS have you sent your letter to Black, Wishart, Whitford and MacAskill telling them that according to your analysis of what constitutes a Unionist they are all unionists.

    Of course you haven't because you post non stop drivel.

    1. SSSS is this another personality? Just how many multiple personalities do you have in that deranged mind of yours.

    2. Now that you recognise you have a problem - do something about it!

  19. Scotland's 14 day infection rate is already below 300 per 100,000.

  20. Keir is going to cancel brexit?

    If he doesn't, Yes will definitely hit 'historic' levels of support.

    1. Am I wrong to worry that Cummings departure allows the tories to get all cuddly and allow some here to relax away from the fear factor that is undoubtedly pushing some towards independence. ?

  21. You wish Poppy of whatever your name is this week ? What will this Brexit deal look like exactly. Back to the customs border in the Irish Sea to preserve the GFA. Aye that's going to work. And no mention of SGP poll on line showing highest ever level of Yes support. Your clearly selective on your polling. Not very democratic eh. And Keir Keir Starmer as the next PM. Give us a break. YouGov polling for Holyrood per your comments above shows SNP GOING UP ! So calm your jets Poppy yer Union's over. Btw what will you be calling yourself next week ?

  22. Another week goes by and still no date for indyref2.

    What have we got:

    1. a promise by Sturgeon of a DRAFT Referendum bill to take into the May 2021 election

    2. a statement by SSSS that a referendum will follow shortly after the May 2021 election.

    Does anyone believe either one or two above will deliver a referendum in 2021.

  23. Am I wrong to be fretful that Cummings departure will allow the tories to persuade some here that all is not lost and they are really cuddly people with our best interests at heart?

  24. When you guys use comments like like Britnats or British Unionist who is it you're talking about. Would that be people who live here in Scotland beside me or people in England I'm not sure.
    If we hurry up and rush through a referendum without the Scottish people you like to call British nationalist unionists or whatever. I can't see how that would work if most of the people in the country don't think it would be fair.

    Or have we just a shout at them you lost get over it