Sunday, December 1, 2024

Labour face catastrophe in Wales as Plaid Cymru storm into historic lead for 2026 Senedd election

I can't 100% say that no polling firm has ever shown Plaid Cymru in the lead before, because Plaid had that extraordinary purple patch in the late 90s under Dafydd Wigley (people in Scotland may have forgotten that, but Plaid actually performed better in the inaugural devolved elections of 1999 than the SNP did).  But these latest numbers from YouGov are truly remarkable, and open up the real possibility that the impressive Rhun ap Iorweth could become the next First Minister of Wales.

Plaid Cymru 24% (+1)
Labour 23% (-4)
Reform UK 23% (+5)
Conservatives 19% (+1)
Greens 6% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-1)

We've seen in Glasgow recently, both at the general election and in local by-elections, that Reform UK have already replaced the Tories as the main party of the right in a way that hasn't yet happened UK-wide.  It looks like something similar may be unfolding in Wales.  Could working class electorates be the vanguard in ushering in the biggest realignment of the UK party system since Labour overhauled the Liberals in the 1920s to become one of the two main parties?  If so, the talk of Nigel Farage as Prime Minister is no longer fanciful.  The odds remain against it, but it's possible.  

Maybe he'd make Keir Starmer his deputy, they seem quite chummy.

22 comments:

  1. That’s the thing: you can just picture Labour and Reform together. I think that’s the future, in Wales and Holyrood in 2026. Maybe loosely so at first, but ever ready to sell out.

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  2. Good for Plaid. They can expect an attack from the tory papers and the labour BBC.

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  3. OT. James, have you missed the comment at 10.28 PM on the previous thread?

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    1. Anon, were you a wee clype running to the teacher at school to?😄

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    2. I'm telling James you said that!😁

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  4. Beginning to wonder if N Ireland and Wales will both be free of Westminster control before Scotland. A glacier moves faster than Swinney.

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    1. As for Reform, they’ll never make inroads in Scotland, if simply because they say they want to drastically reduce immigration, yet they support keeping a completely open border with ‘mass, uncontrolled immigration’ to Scotland from the very foreign country where the vast majority of ‘asylum seekers’ and ‘economic migrants’ here come from; England.

      Their policies couldn’t be less geared to reducing the number of immigrants coming into the county. In fact their rise in England is one of the big reasons we have so many English folks crossing the border and seeking asylum here to escape them.

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    2. Is "Declan Skier" a different person from the "pure punched the air" Declan we all know and love? I'm struggling to see much commonality (other than support for the SNP, obviously).

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    3. Don't know but 'punch the air' Declan and Scottish Skier from WGD are either the same person or two deranged madmen.

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    4. How times change. He used to be "Scottish Skier from SGP", now we think of him as an occasional furtive visitor from a foreign land.

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    5. anglos on the run from bames, but surely they love the diversity?

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  5. I see the Labourites and Brit nats prefer to gossip rather than discuss the main post about Plaid. Maybe another similar poll would focus minds better but I now wonder if Plaid, Irish parties SNP, Greens, ALBA, Catalina should hold a conference to highlight their respective rights. Would the UN support?

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    1. Could you imagine if people had supported Celina Gottwald? Very different scenario. Game changer 🚢

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    2. Oh golly I spelt her name wrong. Aaaarrghghgh. Celine Gottwald 🌞

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  6. How we feeling about Angus Robertson leading the SNP's 2026 campaign?

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    1. I'd feel better if it was Andy Robertson.

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    2. I'd even consider Tommy Robinson to be a better choice.

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    3. Of course not his name. Still in prison? Right wing fascist

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    4. its mrs robertson that scares me

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  7. I'm astonished at that poll. There was a Guardian article last week about Reform in Wales and the vox pops that accompanied it were jaw dropping in their support for Reform and Nigel Farage in particular. What was clear was that Labour were on the back foot, with an awareness amongst the electorate that they were unhappy about Wales' long term poor performance educationally, economically and health, the poor performance of Labour in London and the resignation of Vaughn Gethin.

    The other thing the article said was that Reform were concentrated in South Wales and would do well.

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  8. hey kids - remember that reform is really the "bastard little englander party" who want to do super-tory stuff to you while claiming it will save you from the hottentots

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