Saturday, November 30, 2024

Ironically, the success of the unusual coalition model from the Greens' point of view probably means it will never be repeated

It now looks like Fianna Fáil will top the first preference vote in the Irish general election, despite the exit poll last night putting them third.  Some people are claiming that means the exit poll was a "dud", but that's pushing it a bit - the top three parties were all within 1.6 percentage points of each other in the exit poll, so due to the in-built margin of error, the poll could still have been "right" no matter which of the three came out on top.

On one point the exit poll certainly wasn't misleading - the Green party, which was the junior partner in the outgoing coalition government, is taking a hammering.  This seems to be a recurring pattern for the Irish Greens every time they join a government, and is also a common phenomenon for junior coalition partners across Europe.  What tends to happen is that people who are satisfied with a government gravitate towards voting for the senior coalition partners at the subsequent election (those parties are "the government" in voters' eyes), while those unhappy with the government will be angry with the junior coalition partners for compromising on their principles.

Strangely, though, the Scottish Greens seemed to be immune to that general rule - they took part in a government for almost three years, did some very controversial things, and yet their popularity didn't dip at all.  If anything, it was the SNP who took a hammering for the concessions they made to the Greens, rather than vice versa.  That can be explained by the unusual model of coalition that was adopted, with the Greens taking ministerial roles but not in the Cabinet, and with a number of policy areas excluded from the deal.  That allowed the Greens to pose as either a government party or an opposition party depending on what suited them at any given moment.  In her recent controversial article, Kezia Dugdale said "OK, it technically wasn't a coalition", but actually the opposite is true - it technically was a coalition, but the Greens somehow managed to hypnotise everyone into pretending that it wasn't.

Ironically, the sheer effectiveness of the deal from a Green point of view probably means that the model used will never be repeated - any potential senior coalition partner will be wary and will insist that the junior partner is either all in or all out.

68 comments:

  1. I assume the Green's core vote is youth? Anecdotally, there seem to be a lot of people who are older, who in the past gave the Greens a second vote, who won't touch them since the BHA turned sour.

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    1. I voted Green on the list from 1999 through 2016. I was delighted to elect Robin Harper to the very first Scottish Parliament of the democratic era. Sure, he's a unionist, but it never even came up until indyref, and I supported the Greens for their environmental agenda anyway.

      By 2021, I was thoroughly scunnered with them. The break came when they purged Andy Wightman out of the party. What the land-reform? The hell was going on in there? So I gave Alba a shot instead.

      The BHA was after my time as a Scottish Green supporter. I'd turned my back on them, as they have lost the plot.

      I’m glad there's not been a Holyrood election since, because I honestly don't know who I'd vote for now. The Scottish Greens are still awful, the SNP is obviously Devolutionist, and, well, Alba is Alba. I abstained in the 2024 colonial election, because f*** London Rule anyway, but I can't see abstaining from Scotland's own election.

      The Scunnered Middle lives on.

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  2. Why did the SNP even go into such a formal agreement with the Greens in the first place? It was nothing but a disaster from the off.

    Did they no longer have the confidence of running a minority Government?

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    1. Because it was a perfect fit at the time. The hard left captured SNP were at their science denying peak and the Greens were happy to join in the bat5hit craziness.
      The trouble started when their nonsense ideologies hit the real world like a watermelon dropped from a bridge onto concrete.

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    2. The hard left captured the SNP.
      If only they had.

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    3. The design goal for the Woke Virus, when it was developed in the lab, was to discredit the left, worldwide. It attaches itself exclusively to left wing receptors, so to speak, relying on our natural tendency to support the underdog and the oppressed.

      Once it has caught its target, the Woke Virus inserts itself into the DNA, forcing the organism to burst in virulent self-destruction, dissolved entirely in an orgy of puritanical frothing.

      The right are a still bunch of diddies. Why are they winning so hard across the globe now? What is wrong with us, or rather what has happened to our political class?

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  3. Looks like Gerry 'the monk' Hutch might get a seat.

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  4. The Greens wasted hundreds of millions while in Coalition, then picked the new leader of the SNP, Yousaf, then when he had the sense to ditch them from the disastrous Bute House Submission, forced him to resign by threatening to throw their toys out the pram. Which they did anyway and are still doing.

    If the Scottish Greens ever get anywhere near Government again Scotland will go bust.

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    1. Annette Crosbie the actress is the only person in history that has visited all 50 states in the USA.

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    2. That's just a con I don't believe it

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  5. Disappointing that ALBA supporters boo SNP representatives at Salmonds funeral. Yet welcome with open arms the unionist representatives. Also inappropriate that Nicola was not invited.

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    1. Or you, Dr. Jim, which was most disappointing of the family.

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    2. Nicola was too busy attending the funeral of vile racist Janey Godley.

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    3. Nice that you went out of your way to check that everyone in attendance was an Alba supporter.

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    4. 8.57. I am not aware that there was any welcoming of unionist representatives by any of the crowd. Why do you make up stuff like that? It’s clear you don’t like Alba but why make up lies.

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    5. Trolls don't need eyes or ears to do their job. Just their lying gob.

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    6. There was a councillor in Aberdeen in the 1970s called Mr Hastie. "Cup of tea Mr Hastie?" was a sentence you heard a lot in Aberdeen those days. I think he liked the odd biscuit washed down with a fine beverage, the pride of India. I see we have a Mr Hastie here too so I wonder if it is the same person. Could be but maybe not unless he is in his 90s. And he could be because people live to a great old age these days. Look at Baron Fouljers.

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    7. All we know is that John Swinney will never be accused of being Hastie.

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    8. Not me Bubbles. Never been a councillor. Michel Jackson had a pet chimp called Bubbles. Is that you?

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    9. What’s up Bubbles have I burst your bubbles?

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  6. Did they boo Lord Foulkes ? Gordon Brown?- the truth is it was a memorial service and those who were there on the street supposedly to commemorate Alex Salmond should have respected the ceremony. What low life to boo at a family memorial. No manners. Still BBC news enjoyed showing it.

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    1. Neither Brown nor Foulkes turned against him. Politics doesn't have to be personal - some people make it personal. There's a fair few of SNP members who don't think much of the way they have behaved either, not everyone who saw what happened is an ALBA member, some just have their eyes open.

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    2. Tbh I feel like things have gotten too partition. The best politicians have opponents they disagree with on certain issues rather than enemies. You can disagree with someone politically but still hold them in a high regard and share mutual respect etc.

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    3. Anon at 10.43. Agreed. Regrettably there are some within the Independence movement who appear incapable of showing respect to others. The comment below about N S and the people who booed at the memorial. What is wrong with them? It’s toxic and hugely damaging. As an undecided looking at Indy, that type of behaviour isn’t going to attract you. These people need to be called out on all sides. There is a similar cohort on The National’s btl section as well.

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  7. an enemy is an enemy, but a traitor is something worse

    I see wee nikki had a nice day out with her girlfriend

    asian babes, one for the old spankers

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    1. anon 10:28- what bile. You must be a really unhappy person in yourself.

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    2. Equally pathetic & disgusting comment……..you’re a real saddo

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  8. Whether you rejoin the SNP or not, is completely up to you, James.
    But FFS clear out the low-life verminous SCUM, like the ones above, from your site.

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  9. Anon at 10:28 PM
    You are a disgusting creature.

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  10. Kezia Dugdale gets paid for thinking in a tank, so how come she keeps getting basic things wrong?

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  11. Staggered at how some people get so upset about a politician being booed but care nothing about another politician being falsely accused by a gang of conspiratators in an attempt to send him to prison for possibly the rest of his life.
    Your values are wrong. There is something wrong with you.

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    1. It's all a big con I don't believe it

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    2. It was a memorial service dunderheid. Some folk believe they can jump or boo in front of of the cameras so they can be noticed. It wasn't their memorial service to steal it was the Salmond's family and if they were contend with the attendance of the FM then so should they. No booing to Gordon Brown, Lord Foulkes and co- nor should they have been.
      I suppose in part it is how you were brought up.

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    3. Anon at 12.06pm - you cannae even address your comment properly and you call anon at 11.58am or me a dunderheid.

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    4. Rather,old boy !

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  12. Here are examples of what is wrong with independence supporters who post on WGD and SGP.

    1. Orkneystirling says:- " The SNP government are going to restore the winter fuel payment. Job done. " This post is just plain wrong. They are only introducing a much reduced in value Winter Fuel Payment. £100 per household compared to what it was previously - between £400 to £600. Ken ( Orkneystirling) why do you post such false information. You know it is false.

    2. Dr Jim says:- " There were two funerals today, one was a hate filled piece of political chicanery ably supported by some of the most despised Labour Party members Scotland has ever produced, and accompanied by a vitriolic screaming crowd outside hurling vile language and abuse at FM John Swinney and his wife for daring to attend as representatives of the government.

    And the other funeral attended by former FM Nicola Sturgeon and supporters of independence where nothing but love tenderness and kindness was on show as the family and friends of Janey Godley celebrated and remembered her life.

    Know them by their friends"

    3. Handandshrimp says:- " Two champions of independence were mourned today. "

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    1. As a matter of interest Ifs, what do you see as the route to independence?

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    2. Don't ask IfS difficult questions !

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    3. Anon troll called Lomax at 12.35pm and 12.39pm - " What do you see as the route to independence?" If you had been paying attention rather than thinking up pathetic one line snidey questions you would know I have answered that.

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    4. IFS……sorry but I must have missed your proposed route to independence too so would much appreciate if you would repeat it here please? Thank you

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    5. He's repeated it umpteen times. Stop being a smart arse.

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    6. No - sick of trolls like you asking the same question. I've posted it multiple times. What's your plan?

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    7. I think we can assume IfS has no idea.

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    8. IFS favours a de facto referendum, I’m pretty sure.
      Personally I think it’s a bit of a red herring though. I’d have thought if it was feasible the SNP would have called a de facto before now.

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    9. You sound like you put the 'ass' into assume.

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    10. Anon troll at 5.33pm - who is the "we" you refer to - hearing voices again Skier. How many personalities do you have these days?

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    11. So says KC at 6.38pm. KC like all Britnats running scared of a referendum but Swinney also scared.

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    12. Hi IFS, I’m the anonymous at 6-38 and can assure you I’m not this KC character!

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  13. Why would an Indy supporter take pleasure in the booing at a memorial service of the leader of the SNP but not a peep against the staunch unionists? . No one should of course have been booed at all.

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    1. Anon at 1.13pm. In an ideal world " no one should have been booed at all." I agree and If I was in the crowd on the Royal Mile I wouldn't have booed.
      However, we are not in an ideal world. We are in a world where independence supporters are divided and it is Sturgeon and her gang who have created this less than ideal world by their unacceptable actions. Some independence supporters detest Sturgeon and her gang, others turn a blind eye. No prizes for guessing my viewpoint.

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    2. What of the impact on the undecided, who have been shown BBC and MSM coverage that portrays the Indy movement in a very poor light? We certainly are not in an ideal world but I still think certain basic standards of decency and respect should be upheld. If that puts me in a minority , so be it.

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    3. Anon at 5.25pm says:- " I still think basic standards of decency and respect should be upheld." So do I.
      In a post on SGP some time ago I said Swinney would do well to stay away by feigning an illness at the last moment as I forecast this would happen. He chose to attend and I can't believe he thought he would be welcomed.
      My basic standards of decency do not include plotting with others to concoct false allegations to try and send an innocent man to jail and then spend public funds trying to cover up the actions.

      My basic standards of decency do not include raising money on the back of false promises to carry out Indyref2 and then having the money disappear.

      John the Redactor showed no respect to independence supporters by his actions in covering up wrongdoing.

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    4. @5:25, you are 100% correct and certainly not in a minority.
      This sort of behaviour will most certainly do nothing in getting undecideds onboard, and indeed, is more likely to have the opposite effect.

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    5. Nor will complaining about it. If it's the noise of discontent you are worried about them you must think that the arguments for independence are flimsy. I actually think the arguments for independence are firm, solid and sensible, so I do not fear the effect of one man's boo at a memorial service. I also think trying to fit someone up was more likely to put people off voting for independence as was redacting information you said would be presented openly to the public. Saying you are going to be transparent then covering everything up is worse than a boo that supports the guy being honoured. Remember, this was about Salmond not Swinney or Sturgeon.

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    6. W T. Your reply is that of someone existing in a bubble. Step outside the bubble and ask people about the A S trial. Expect blank faces and disinterest. And these are the people seeing BBC coverage of Independence supporters booing at a funeral. Are you attracted as someone undecided to such a movement? You will not get the chance to tell these people of the benefits of Indy.

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    7. Scotland is a colony anon at 10.21am and you are worried about Swinney getting booed. The people who sold out Scotland in 1707 were in danger of getting lynched. Swinney is getting off lightly.

      " booing at a funeral." It wisnae a funeral - it was a memorial.

      Of course if John the Redactor was that concerned about such a negative affect on Scottish independence then he could have chosen not to go.

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    8. Anon 10.21 your comment doesn't make sense and is built on assumptions about how people think about the Salmond trial. I don't know where you live but almost everyone I know has heard of the Salmond trial. Do you live in Scotland?

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  14. Anon 1.13 probably because he used to be his pal. One expects politicians of the opposition to have a different view, you do not expect your pal to distort a report about you by redacting words so that it makes you look bad especially after having tried to discredit you in a flawed process that was found to be biased. People who booed Swinney probably did so because emotionally they were upset. Some people are like that. Swinney, to his credit, turned up to the funeral probably expecting this. He did the decent thing, perhaps he could follow it up by releasing some of the redacted documents and let the public see the whole story - both sides. As you know Salmond was not allowed to present all of his evidence at his trial, nor at the inquiry. The government of transparency suddenly became opaque - and unfortunately some people have to express that when an opportunity arises. It may not be good manners but it's understandable.

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  15. Considering some of the posts James has deleted, can’t believe the post at 10.28 is still up. It’s grossly offensive and potentially actionable.

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    1. Get a grip! Actionable by who? Sturgeon? I should think she'll want to steer well clear of any court room.

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    2. Anon at 6.16pm has it never crossed your mind that perhaps our site host disnae like anon posters telling him what to do?

      Is it now a crime in your opinion to suggest someone is a Lesbian?
      Is it now a crime in your opinion for me to suggest you are a bit of a numpty?
      What exactly do you find grossly offensive? Do lesbians offend you? Is it the spanking that offends you? Is it both combined that offends you?
      Or how about when Dr Jim mocked Salmond's death by saying unlike Salmond Sturgeon could open a bottle of ketchup without dying. Did you find that: not at all/mildly/grossly offensive.?

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  16. Can you repeat the words where I tell James what to do? Nope?

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    1. Well you certainly hint at it at 6:16!!!

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    2. Down to hints? So I didn’t tell James what to do? IFS had a promising start today, with a reasonable post in which he disagreed but didn’t descend into angry vitriol. It didn’t last.

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    3. No, you just complained about it and 'wondered' why James hadn't deleted it. Nothing to you weren't telling him what to do!!!🤣🤣🤣

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    4. And don't forget, he also warned James that it could lead to a court case if he didn't delete it. The guy is obviously a Nicola fanboy who can't bear to hear a bad word about her.

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    5. Anon at 6.42am - you were complaining James hadn't deleted the post. That is trying to put pressure on him to delete it. I note that you didn't clarify why you are so grossly offended. Are you offended that I asked you questions on the matter? I didn't see you being offended by Dr Jim's comment re Salmond.

      I get people like you trolling me all the time. Have I ever asked James to delete one of them - no. You are selectively easily offended and are clueless about " potentially actionable". You remind me of the numpty from Australia melbdon who wanted Scottish Skier to sue me for calling Skier liar. Clueless - is that potentially actionable as well.

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