80% of the time I disagree with Andy Maciver's centrist, affluent take on Scottish politics, but his verdict on the Daily Record story suggesting the SNP will reverse London Labour's cut in winter fuel allowance chimes with the way I've been thinking recently -
"Labour will learn the hard way that Westminster governments don’t get the electoral credit for Barnett consequentials…"
I cannot understand what Sarwar's thinking was in announcing that a Scottish Labour government would reverse its own party's cuts, because once people stopped laughing at the preposterous "vote Labour to stop Labour" messaging, there was only ever going to be one reliable effect. The SNP couldn't allow themselves to be outflanked, so if they hadn't already been planning to reverse the cut themselves, Sarwar's stunt guaranteed that they would do so, and we knew that it was probably affordable due to the Barnett consequentials generated by the Budget's spending increases in England.
And now the SNP will get the sole credit. In the real world, people don't say "oh, this is thanks to #PressureFromScottishLabour", and nor do they give credit to London Labour for incidentally providing the funds necessary to reverse a cruel cut that London Labour made in the first place and needn't have done.
* * *
Over the last few weeks, I have been causing fury in certain quarters by pointing out that Labour's string of local by-election wins in Scotland is not what it superficially seems, because they have taken place mostly in wards that are unusually favourable for Labour - a lot of them have been wards where Labour won the popular vote in 2022, at a time when the SNP were well ahead nationally. The swing to Labour has generally been small enough to suggest an ongoing SNP national lead, perhaps even quite a substantial one.
In a state of exasperation, someone said to me the other day: "OK, if that's the case, where are all the wards that the SNP would be expected to win?" Well, there are two more by-elections taking place today, and I've checked the wards in question and it's a continuation of the same story: both wards were unusually favourable for Labour in 2022 at a time when Labour were well behind the SNP nationally. So doubtless Labour will easily win both by-elections, and certain people will once again refuse to accept that such results can be anything other than stonkingly wonderful for Labour, but that's the reality. The numbers don't lie. Sometimes weird patterns do just occur randomly and lots of Labour-friendly wards come up for election all at once.
The Labour wards pattern isn’t even a coincidence. The reason for all these by-elections is that these Labour councillors have gone on to win election as labour MPs. It’s anything but a random sample.
ReplyDeleteBut anything it takes to make British nationalists feel comfortably complacent!
The SNP might get the credit for reversing the WFP, but it’s going to take an awful lot more than that to make people forget 17 years of gross incompetence in government.
ReplyDeleteYou should be a dancer on a cruise liner. You could get that job.
DeleteAs distinct from Westminster ripping Scotland off for more than 300 years. Westminster keeping between 70 to 80% of Scotland's taxes for themselves.
DeleteKC at 9.46am. The historic document is held in the National Library of Scotland, Edinburgh. The document shows the record that the British Empire kept of taxes raised in Scotland and taxes spent in Scotland. That was in the period when the Empire was more sure of itself and arrogant enough to actually record in official documents how much they rip off Scotland. They stopped recording it in the 1920s when some wiser Britnat probably thought that perhaps it's not a good idea to record this info. Particularly as Ireland was getting its freedom at the same time.
DeleteKC being a House Jock disnae want to educate himself on such matters. He prefers to be ignorant and kid himself on as to his true status in the UK - a subservient House Jock.
It's minus 6 degrees this morning the SNP should have been on the front foot and promised to pay the UWFP right away when Labour made that initial decision to can the UWFP.
ReplyDeleteIfS at 9.34 am -- If the SNP discovered a cure for cancer you'd be soiling yourself to get in there first with your negativity.
DeleteAbsolutely IfS. I've been saying for weeks that the first sign of proper cold weather should've been the time to act. Good news story for SNP etc. They've already missed that boat, I fear.
DeleteYou just know that sooner or later there'll be a Daily Record headline about a poor old soul who's been found dead in their own flat wrapped in blankets with the central heating turned off.
Anon twit at 9.53am - who in the SNP is going to come up with a cure for cancer - surely not Shirley 😂😂- a real wonder of science 🤣- there is no way Shirley- Anne Somerville is related to Scotland's Queen of Science Mary Somerville. I m pretty sure Mary Somerville would know the difference between a man and a woman. If Shirley was a doctor she would be treating women for prostrate cancer.
DeleteAnon your comment is just full of personal abuse but I note you do not dispute the point I made and that makes you a troll as well as an idiot.
Exactly Douglas. You would think the SNP don't want to win Holyrood 2016. It was an open goal served up by Labour.
DeleteWhat is an obvious truth AND an important one is that Scotland's trendy left should've been putting pressure on the ScotGov to make this decision last week rather than beating themselves off about Netenyahu's arrest warrant.
DeleteAnon troll at 9.53am - as soon as Reeves delivered her budget and it was clear that the Scotgov would get a lot more money I was first to post on SGP that the SNP should state that they will pay the UWFP as it will give them a big political win. What did they do - hummed and hawed and let Sarwar muddy the water. It's valid criticism. It's just that SNP trolls like you are party drones who have no mind of their own.
DeleteAnon 10.24 is that you Kevin McKenna ?
DeleteThe S G didn’t get more money. It’s our money, which we are forced to send down and then wait to get back. And we get back less than we send down. Why are you supporting a unionist narrative?
DeleteAnon 12.40pm at give it a rest with your twisted words. The Scotgov is getting more money in its budget. I refer you to my post at 10.00am where I point out exactly what you are saying about Westminster getting our taxes (money) and only sending some of it back. So you are just determined to troll me - so why are you determined to troll me?
DeleteAnon 12.08 Is that you Maggie Chapman?
DeleteThe SNP would have gotten more credit if they had acted more quickly imo.
ReplyDeleteUntil now we've had excuses that it can only be reversed at Westminster or "what do you want the Scottish Government to cut to pay for it?" messaging from SNP supporters. It kind of feels like they've been forced into doing it rather than doing it from the off because it's the right thing to do.
You need to tell what is to be cut instead?
DeleteThey're planning to reverse it so what is being cut in that case?
Delete"You need to tell what is to be cut instead?"
DeleteYour stupidity?
Anon at 11.19. Cut the tie with England.
DeleteAnon at 11.19am - first of all they don't need to cut anything. It's additional money.
DeleteSecondly, if you want the SNP to cut something they could stop giving money to organisations that are not fit for purpose. Stop wasting money on projects that are a disaster. Stop spending public funds on legal fees to cover up wrongdoing. .
Anon at 11.28am has summed you up very well.
It’s our money, not additional money, and still less than we send down each year and have to wait to get back.
DeleteAnon at 11.23. Are you Kezia?
DeleteAnon troll at 12.36pm see my answer at 2.00pm above.
DeleteSwinney was Finance Secretary under Salmond in the minority government days - which needed give and take to get budgets through. People associate him with Sturgeon. Maybe - but I think he's his own man. From the National: https://archive.is/Bv5HL
ReplyDelete"John Swinney says Anas Sarwar U-turn on winter fuel is 'step forward'"
I think it's a major issue, and what Swinney could do is say to Sarwar: "We'll reverse the WFP cut but you'll need to support our budget, or at least, not vote against it. We'll acknowledge your support.". Job done.
If the SNP don't do that, then in the words of that Mission Impossible film they're: "Toast Toast Toast" for 2026.
What SNP should’ve been saying is. We’re doing this. Support us. Instead they allow Labour to take the lead. Incompetent morons.
DeleteMeanwhile the SNP need to totally ignore the Greens and their "Scrap roads and go by push bike", such as not dual the A96 - a road I've driven on and one which is deadly - deaths all the time and no wonder. And of course there's an economic case for it - it connects Inverness to Aberdeen.
ReplyDeletehttps://archive.is/JrWoq
What the Greens don't know about economics would be the whole syllabus for Economics 101.
Greens don’t want economic growth, they want managed decline.
DeleteFair enough if you’re comfortably off in a flat your parents bought for you in Kelvinside, but hideous to the whole rest of Scotland.
I get that there’s a hell of a lot more to the quality of people’s lives than sheer GDP growth rate, but this is Scotland and we need those roads, especially in winter when you’d kill yourself on a bike.
James says " Vote Labour to stop Labour " - a great line James. I may use that in correspondence with my Labour MP Blair McDougall. Or even a variation on the theme "Vote Labour to save us from Labour."
ReplyDeleteOnly Labour can save Scotland from this Labour government.
DeleteBut who saves Labour from itself?
Mr Mortimer does
DeleteImagine if we were independent, and not getting the billions from Westminster through the Barnett Formula every year.
ReplyDeleteDosen’t bare thinking about. Just one of the many reasons that makes independence utter lunacy. Thank God only a minority somehow think this madness is a good idea!
KC - there is a saying 'God loves a trier ' and boy are you trying. According to KC the rest of the world are lunatics - all these independent countries turning up at the UN.
DeletePs it's bear not "bare" - ya numpty House Jock.
Slip ons?
DeleteIFS has no answer to the Barnett point, surprise surprise.
DeleteI note “House Jock” has replaced “Britnat” as his favourite saying these days too.
Why is England paying us, KC? Go on. You spell out your asinine logic for us.
DeleteSimpleton KC disnae understand the difference between House Jock and Britnat.
Deleteengland has no money, the thieves have a printing press, the real wealth is ours
Delete@3:40,
DeleteNationalist bullshit.
British Nationalist bullshit, I presume.
Deleteengland makes nothing and imports 44% of its food; its water is full of shit, freemarket shit because that's how john bull likes it
Deletethe city is a separate sovereign state which does money laundering, tax evasion, all financial scams - but its all based on the notion that the paper pound has some value, which has to be derived from somewhere
the dollar has value because america will kill if you don't accept it as payment, but no one is frightened of england
- no oil, the pound moves from 1.30USD to around 80 cents, and england implodes. The anglos will eat each other, hopefully choking in the process.
Can anyone offer Inactive for Scotland a job? He has far too much time on his hands.
ReplyDeleteI don't think he does the brain transplant you clearly need.
DeleteIs “Dimwit Troll” one of Scotgov’s 42 recognised gender identities?
DeleteAs a newcomer to Scot Goes Pop I find Mr Kelly’s writing very interesting I also find some of the comments interesting as well. However, to a newcomer some of the references are confusing. I’ve never seen any posts from KC or Dr Jim or Inactive for Scotland. Also why do so many post as anonymous when it is easy to use a name?
DeleteAlso why does anonymous above want to get a job for this Inactive for Scotland. Does anonymous work in a job centre? Is that how anonymous knows Inactive wants a job? Also what is a House Jock and how is this KC person a House Jock.?
Hi, KC.
DeleteI’m not KC whoever that is. Are you the original anonymous at 12.43pm or the anonymous at 1.14pm? It would be much easier and clearer if anons used a name.
DeleteAre you a Conservative Councillor from Airyhall in Aberdeen? If not, why not? I have the right to know.
DeleteThe only person who ever asks who KC is is KC himself. "Robert Hastie" is KC.
DeleteAgree 100%
DeleteI doubt very much that Robert Hastie is KC. His post’s aren’t KCs style..
DeleteI’ve noticed this has become a regular occurrence, comments being attributed to KC which fairly obviously, in my view, aren’t him.
Is anonymous 4.47pm
DeleteKC or is it 4.58pm? Why all the focus on KC? Why do you all post as anonymous? It’s confusing. Who is Dr Jim? Why does an anonymous want to find a job for someone? Seems a bit strange.
I suspect you're right, 5:01. KC's style is very narrow, so it's easy to tell when it's him. Hint: 8 excitable schoolgirl emojis in a row, "you couldn't make it up" and a mention of "nessie".
DeleteBut I also doubt an actual newcomer would compile a wee compendium of the latest terms. They can at least figure out who's trying yet again to troll IfS. That lad seriously needs to up his game, don't you Jim?
Your big mistake, Anon at 5.34, is not to notice that Anon at 5.01, the person you are replying to, is also KC.
DeleteOops that was me posting at 5.33pm. This posting lark is harder than I thought. I forgot to add my name. I don’t understand why people think I am this KC character. I’m not.
DeleteDidn’t realise asking a few simple background questions would cause a bit of a stushie.
So is Dr Jim now posting as the original anonymous @ 12.43pm? I can assure you I am not KC or Dr Jim.
Not sure I’ll ever get a handle on all this. All these anonymous posters. Just checked I put my name on my post. I don’t want to make that mistake again
That's definitely KC. And, no, we're not going to start calling you RH. You're stuck with the Sunshine Band.
DeleteI’m pretty sure Robert Hastie is genuine and telling the truth, and is not KC.
DeleteHi, KC.
DeleteIsn't "Robert Hastie" one of JK Trolling's extra names?
DeleteBy the way Jakey has been quite quiet lately; must be tgat she hasn't any new tat to flog.
No job offers for Inactive?
DeleteWow that was a very strange reaction to my post. I’ve no idea if the anon posts are the same person giving me a hard time or a number of individuals. I’m not KC or Dr Jim or this inactive person.
DeleteI just asked who they were. Why would anon ask if inactive had received job offers on an independence site. That’s strange as well.
Beginning to think this site is not for me too many weirdos posting senseless comments and trolling people.
I believe Rowling writes under the name Robert Galbraith and that may be what you are thinking about. I am not JK Rowling. This is getting really weird.
Don’t be Hastie Robert. P S. You’re not actually fooling anyone.
DeleteAfter all the school kid name calling in the end some pensioners and the SNP will gain from this and Labour will lose from it - good - as far as it goes.
ReplyDeleteN.B. Scotland's per capita GNP is higher than the UK average and Scotland's per capita average income is lower than the UK average. Figure it - the counter argument is unionist propaganda lies. Simples !
Someone’s got to foot the bill for those Trans Crisis Centres, and the essential Drag Queens in Primary Schools taxi fares need covered, too.
ReplyDeleteAnon 2.35 Quite a bigot, aren't ye ?
DeleteAnon at 4:43 PM
DeleteWhy - are you a Drag Queen?
Definitely bigoted to deny drag queens access to primary school assembly halls. This is Scotland, after all!
DeleteWhat a sad individual you are.
ReplyDeleteYour bathroom mirror thinks you're cool, at least.
DeleteThe winter fuel costs is not just the SG remit. The costs of energy is controlled at Westminster. The revenues gathered from our oil gas and other energy surplus goes to . Mos of dss still controlled by Westminster. Scotland is ripped off. Also why not give no monies to the south of England where the weather is warmer. No that’s not fair either.
ReplyDeleteShirleyannesomerville looks like Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars. I can say that because I'm not exactly an oil painting myself.
ReplyDeleteCan you link to your picture?
DeleteI like pictures. Phwoar!
DeleteShirley Palpatine wears a hoodie. I wonder why?
DeleteI said at the time that Celine Gottwald should of gotten the job
ReplyDeleteSomerville announces a half baked WFP scheme to start next year and at a much lower amount. The SNP had the opportunity to get more pensioners on the side of independence and they blew it because - why?
ReplyDeleteThis halfway house is a shit option. Something only a halfwit like Somerville could come up with. Scotland's pensioners getting hypothermia down to Sturgeon populating the Scottish government with her halfwit pals.
SICK sick of Somerville, Swinney and the SNP.
“The SNP had the opportunity to get more pensioners on the side of independence “.
DeleteIt’ll take a lot more than a couple hundred quid a year to get people on the side of independence, save maybe the odd gullible fool!
Truly desperate stuff, even by your standards IFS.
What's desperate is you KC Labour House Jock at 7.13pm tying yourself in knots over this. The difference is more than " a couple of hundred quid a year. The Somerville package starting next year is £100 per household. The old WFP could be anything from £400 - £600 per household. Not good at arithmetic are you KC.
DeleteAs someone who cares nothing about Palestinian children being mercilessly blown to bits on a daily basis I wouldn't expect you to worry about Scottish pensioners getting hypothermia.
What makes you think I’m a Labour voter IFS?
DeleteI actually always vote for the party with the best realistic chance of beating the SNP. This has been, in the past for a time, Labour, but more often than not, in my constituency, the Tories.
It’s what more and more of us unionists are doing, voting tactically. An increasing number of people are realising there is urgent need to rid this country of the nationalist charlatans.
Cruella de Winterville - the cold comfort con artist. Scotland's answer to Freeze Reeves.
DeleteYeh I thought brexit was to remove all the immigrants coming to Scotland, using our better NHs services etc, preventing our young folk from getting houses and yet they still come here calling us jock. (Ironic)
DeleteSome numpties have been asking on SGP what should the SNP Scotgov cut to fund a UWFP in Scotland. These numpties should be thinking about the money being spent on lawyers progressing more of this trans madness in the UK Supreme Court. What an embarrassing spectacle it is.
ReplyDeleteJudges asking Scotgov lawyers can a transman get pregnant - are they entitled to IVF treatment or maternity leave. Judges asking the same lawyers can a transwoman get a smear test. The Scotgov lawyers getting in a right mess trying to deal with the questions and contradicting the Scotgov's own position. What a waste of money.
This shitshow is down to Sturgeon and Somerville and the rest of them. Madness paid for by our taxes.
It's become an argument about which government is more mad the UK gov or the Scotgov.
Remember this is actually just an extra payment to pensioners. It doesn't have to be spent on heating. It is poorly targeted as it goes mostly to those that dont need it. It is not reduced for the poorest because of means testing. And the triple lock is keeping the pension protected in real terms.
ReplyDeleteSo how do you account for the people getting hypothermia in previous years anon at 10.07am. Empathy and looking after the old clearly isnae your thing. The UK state pension is one of the worst in the world.
DeleteKC what you really need is a Bitter Together party to vote for.
Delete