Conservatives 27%
Labour 25%
Reform UK 22%
Liberal Democrats 12%
Greens 9%
SNP 3%
This of course isn't the first opinion poll since the general election to show the Tories in the lead - across all firms, it's actually the fourth, and there was also another one that had the Tories and Labour exactly level. But what we haven't seen before is a poll that combines Labour in second place with a very small gap between themselves and Reform UK, opening up the possibility that they could soon slip to third place.
It may seem paradoxical that both the Tories and Reform UK are prospering at the same time, because under Kemi Badenoch, the Tories have never before converged so much with Reform UK in policy terms. But remember that 27% isn't actually a good showing for the Tories - it's only enough to put them in the lead because Labour are polling so catastrophically.
As I've said before, an extremist right-wing government won't need to actually be elected before the likely prospect of an extremist right-wing government starts to move the dial of the constitutional debate in Scotland. How do unionists sell a country that may soon have a Prime Minister Badenoch? How do they sell a country that might even soon have a Prime Minister Farage, or a Deputy Prime Minister Farage?
I'd love to see the seat projection. (And no: not Electoral duffing Calculus!)
ReplyDeleteLabour's vote is highly concentrated in urban pockets, which usually works against them in FPTP but does give them a higher floor than the Tories. It's quite plausible, at least, that Labour would come first in seats even from third place in the popular vote.
And that Reform could end up with a dozen MPs on a quarter of the vote.
DeleteWhat is an extremist right wing government. Perhaps a government who knows what a women is or a government that says that there is too many illegal immigrants here that we don’t know who or what they might be. If that’s right wing extremism count me in. WTF has happened to some common sense in the west. Captured by extreme left wing ideology. See 2 can play at that game
DeleteI agree that that would be possible. Politically I think that theres a high chance thatvwould be seen as a stake in the heart of FPTP. Farage would call his followers to protest as would the Sun, Mail, Telegraph and GBeebies.
DeleteAm left wing economically but I agree with you 10.28.
DeleteI also think the idea of massive demographic change ie ethnic Scots/Irish/Europeans seeing our towns change irrevocably in a matter of a few years is coming home to roost, like it or not.
Unfortunately, James, there is no natural law that says Scotland itself can’t lurch to the right also. I wouldn’t bank on Scotland not either supporting Farage, another English figure like him, or producing its own.
ReplyDeleteWhen did Scotland last lurch to the right? It's barely happened within living memory. Whether you call it a 'natural' law or not, it's certainly an observable phenomenon - Scotland is consistently less right-wing than England.
DeleteHistory isn’t destiny. Until recently Sweden was predominantly left politically.
DeleteCouldn't post the other day, but...
Delete@10:58pm, the lurch to the right is currently taking place and has been since around 2016. We saw the Tories move into second place, subsequently opening the door for Reform and forcing Labour to inch rightwards to win those unionist voters back.
We're a long way from the days of the 2003 parliament, when the SSP was electable. If trajectories do not change, the 2026 parliament will see the SSP replaced by an even larger group of Reform MSPs.
The hard right may not be anywhere near the majority, but they're nearly a minority. If that's not a lurch, I don't know what is.
And before the swinging sixties it was right wing pally with Hitler and ruled Finland Norway
ReplyDeleteMore than 50% voted Tory in Scotland in 1955
DeleteGosh, yes, that's recent.
DeleteAnonymous 2:13
Delete> More than 50% voted Tory in Scotland in 1955
I don't think it is accurate to say that, and here is why.
If in your mind 'voting for the Tories' is the equivalent to voting for the currently existing conservative party, or the conservative and unionist party of England (colloqially knows as 'The Tories'), then you might think that what you are saying seems obvious.
The party that was voted for by Scottish people in 1955 was a completely different entity, which incidentally no longer exists.
I am not an expert, so perhaps James can help us out here if I don't get this exactly right, but after the last Scottish 'conservative' majority vote in 1955 the Scottish Unionist party went into electoral decline and was subsumed into (taken over by) the London ruled Conservative and Unionist party (of England).
The distinction between the Unionist Party (which is what technically won in Scotland in 1955) and the Conservative Party was mainly one of branding. The bigger issue was the merger between the Tories and the Liberal Unionists, which happened UK-wide, but was the phenomenon that allowed the Tories to temporarily (ie. for a few decades) become so strong in Scotland, which had traditionally been a Liberal-voting country.
DeleteSo that looks like 64% support for right wing parties. Not counting the Liberals. What a shithole of a country. Makes Serbia look civilised
ReplyDeleteSorry... 74%
ReplyDelete