"Anas Sarwar is preferred by voters as the next FM (the stat that really tells you who’s going to win elections), but only by a solitary point over the hapless and beleaguered Yousaf – who’s barely enjoyed a single good day in his year-and-a-bit in charge."
That's not true. Mr Campbell is referring to the March edition of the monthly Redfield & Wilton poll, which showed Sarwar move ahead of Yousaf on the head-to-head "best First Minister" question for the first time, but that result is now out of date. The April poll showed Yousaf resume his lead.
At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better First Minister of Scotland? (Redfield & Wilton, 6th-7th April 2024)
Humza Yousaf 35% (+4)
Anas Sarwar 30% (-2)
Nevertheless, Yousaf's leadership is on the ropes due to the fact he represents the Continuity Sturgeon faction, which is an increasingly tarnished brand for extremely obvious reasons. Out of curiosity, I asked my Twitter followers yesterday who they want to be the next SNP leader, and the results were startling -
Stephen Flynn 62.2%
Kate Forbes 29.4%
Angus Robertson 4.3%
Mairi McAllan 4.1%
I have to say I disagree with that. We were all impressed by Stephen Flynn when he took on the Speaker, but I still think Kate Forbes is the most voter-friendly option the SNP have, and there's polling evidence to demonstrate that. The idea floated in the press at the weekend of a joint ticket with Forbes as leader and Flynn as deputy might well be the way to go.
As for the other idea floated in the press, that the continuity faction will play a slightly longer game in the hope of installing either Mairi McAllan or Jenny Gilruth, words fail me. McAllan is not ready for the top job yet, and I'm not sure on what planet Gilruth will ever be ready for it.
James, no matter who leads the SNP now the passing of the juries less trials is a step to far for me. The whole idea of juries is that they live the same kind of lives as us, before that it was a class looking down on us with their values and life experience, this is a retrograde step. And it will move to murder and on and on and on. What it says is that the government (the SNP) doesn't trust juries over rape, so we have to ask ourselves, why would it trust them with murder - or anything.
ReplyDeleteYou're horrible. You stole my friend.
DeleteAs a SNP member I am not in any rush to vote for another FM. Likewise most folk I know in the party have the same view. It must be frustrating for other parties and their members but it ain’t going to happen soon. If I ask for Salmond, Ross, Sarwar and whoever the hyphenated Lib Dem is would their members say ok. Of course not.
ReplyDeleteYou can stamp your little feet as much as you like, but I and others will carry on analysing the SNP leadership crisis.
DeleteI certainly don’t see a standout candidate to replace Yousaf.
DeleteAt the very least he has to be given til after the GE.
Kate Forbes is the standout candidate, and the time to act is before Yousaf loses the SNP a shedload of seats.
DeleteDoesn’t it tarnish her if she loses “half a shedload” of seats so soon into her leadership however? One thing no one can do is run the election twice, for experiment’s sake.
DeleteWhoever faces the voters will carry the can.
There'll be nothing left for her to inherit if she's not there before the election. This is an emergency.
DeleteThere'll be nothing left for her to inherit if she's not there before the election. This is an emergency.
DeleteShe'll inherit a Scottish government which either has a majority or is just shy of it. Yes, she likely won't have very many MPs, but they don't have much point anyway. Why get Humza's successor off to such a terrible start in the by-no-means-guaranteed hope of saving a handful of them?
I am unsure what will happen if the GE goes as wrong for the SNP as I think it will (I wouldn't be surprised at seat numbers in single digits to be honest). If Humza stands down in the autumn there is no obvious successor in my view.
ReplyDeleteI believe Kate Forbes would likely put herself forward again but I am unsure if she would be able to win this time either. Although she came very close last time I imagine many have left the party since then like myself who voted for her. If she did win who knows what the reaction would be within the parliamentary group. A narrow Forbes win in the atmosphere of a very bad GE could be the atmosphere when the left/right split really happens.
As far as the Sturgeon/Yousaf faction continuity candidates go, Stephen Flynn seems the most high profile and well respected but of course with the major issue of being an MP so would not be able to be First Minister for several years (assuming he survives the GE). Mairi McAllan does seem in waiting however she is due to go on maternity leave in the summer and might not be around in time for a new leadership contest (unless Humza is able to hang around long enough for her to come back?). Maybe Jenny Gilruth will get her chance purely because of timing? Or someone else not really on the radar?
I have noted an upsurge in support for Flynn. He's more visible than Forbes and I think has a more forceful charisma.
ReplyDeleteI think people have got to be careful about that. His forcefulness probably appeals more to the already-converted. Kate Forbes has a wider appeal.
DeleteI absoutley agree Forbes has wider appeal and that's one of the reasons I voted for her. Whether the current SNP membership think the same is another matter.
DeleteFlynn has to become an MSP first should he wish to be a future leader.
DeleteWrong parliament indeed. And has he the popularity to win a by-election to come up here? Doubt it.
DeleteCampbell and his site are becoming increasingly irrelevant. He has a relatively small hard core of repeat posters and the posts themselves are often offensive and unhinged. He does at least attract those I don’t want to see anywhere near the Indy movement and keeps them out of mainstream media. And in fairness to him, he has identified a market in taking money from gullible stupid mouth frothers. His cherry picking of statistics and poll results is his M O.
ReplyDeleteWell said.
DeleteThat's serious wishful thinking, it's still the most-read and he's a fine journalist whatever your personal views of him are - the MSM plagiarise his work regularly. He's solely responsible for the downfall of the Murrells as none of it would have come to light without his articles. It's a matter of personal opinion whether that's a good thing....
DeleteI think I agree with that statement made by the poster immediately above but I'm not sure if I agree with the statement made by the poster above him. Or her. Or them. I do not wish to misgender anyone so could I beg posters to identify their preferred pronouns in their posts. This would save massive stress and might avoid costly legal battles which would end up all over the papers and the BBC but I suppose we're not allowed to mention that these days. Men!
DeleteHe's not a 'fine journalist' because he's not a 'journalist' at all. Whether the Wingsnuts like it or not, he's a blogger. Our host James can officially claim to be a journalist of sorts because he's written dozens of times for The National, but how many times has Campbell written for the conventional media? Only once or twice as far as I can recall.
DeleteHe used to write for computer magazines as far as I know
DeleteI've written for science fiction fanzines but that doesn't make me a journalist.
DeleteWhat ones?
DeleteWhat ones?
DeleteCriticise Wings all you want but he broke the missing indyref2 money months before the mainstream and has an excellent exposé today about the influence of LGBT Youth Scotland in our primary schools.
DeleteMost read does not equate with multiple hits every day by the same hard core of cult followers. And someone immediately attempting to bring gender in tells us its own story. And cut and paste does not a journalist make. Sermon/rant finished.
DeleteExplain
DeleteRant indeed. Not worth hearing though.
DeleteThe only person who mentions gender here is anon 3:59. Tells its own story apparently.😁
Delete"but he broke the missing indyref2 money"
DeleteWas wasting Christ knows how much money on the pointless Dugdale court case any better value for money than a camper van? It's only "not missing" in the sense that we saw it being wasted in real time.
So that's not a journalistic story then? I suggest you buy a dictionary.
DeleteCampbell funded his court case by launching an appeal fund. It may have been a waste of money but here's the novelty - he actually spent it on what he said he would. Now, remind me about that ring fenced independence referendum fund again.
DeleteFrom what I heard, it's unlikely the "ring-fenced" appeal fund would have been sufficient to cover the costs of the court case. He probably also dipped into the general Wings funds which were supposed to be used to campaign for independence.
Delete"So that's not a journalistic story then?"
DeleteWhat the hell is a "journalistic story"? The question is whether he's a journalist. Answer: no he's not.
Anon@4:52, No doubt your sources on Campbell's finances are impeccable but the ring fenced fund was run by the SNP for an independence referendum. Have those sources managed to track down what happened to that referendum or, at least, that money?
DeleteHe hasn't a clue Owen. He's managed to conflate the SNP indyref2 fund with Campbell's court case and thrown in a blind accusation that Campbell dipped into other funds with no proof at all. You can't argue with stupid.
DeleteAnon at 4.07. Leave the discussion to the adults. I know you desperately want to come across as a clever wit but you only show yourself up as a failing smart arse. At least your wee pals are around. Off you toddle.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteOur host James can officially claim to be a journalist of sorts because he's written dozens of times for The National, but how many times has Campbell written for the conventional media? Only once or twice as far as I can recall.
DeleteI'm as tired of Wings as any sane person but that's a very silly definition of "journalist"
"You can't argue with stupid."
DeleteYour bigger problem here is that you can't argue with something you know to be true.
"I'm as tired of Wings as any sane person but that's a very silly definition of "journalist""
DeleteWhat's the alternative definition? The Craig Murray / Stuart Campbell definition of "citizen journalist" which basically means that anyone can claim to be one if they want to?
Dictionary.com says journalism is "the occupation of reporting, writing, editing, photographing, or broadcasting news or of conducting any news organization as a business". That seems fair enough
DeleteKate Forbes would be a disaster, she’s a neo-liberal disciple of Freeports and Growth commission thinking. She also presided over the scandalous capped-auction for the scotwind franchises. We’ve no chance of seeing Scotland regaining control of our resources under her tutelage and leadership IMO.
ReplyDeleteKate Forbes is the only realistic candidate the SNP has. Smart, good minister and media performer, not from Lowlands, most popular choice with voters and the one unionist were most afraid of - which should always give you a hint who to choose! I don't agree with a lot of her economic or any of her social views, but so what? I agree with Yousaf's (or the ones her claims he holds), but he is a useless joke. We need to see the big pic. Independence supporters needs to start getting serious, starting with a new SNP leader, clear out of that party and of anyone in the Yes movement who is in it for ulterior motives (hi messers Campbell and Kavanagh)
ReplyDelete'So what?' Errm....... What's the appeal? You think she's pretty?
DeleteHow dare you.
DeleteShe has lovely teeth.
DeleteAsh R, is the only credible leader ALBA has? Discuss?
DeleteI would welcome her leadership as I agree 100% with her social views.
DeleteI've been voting for the SNP for over 50 years, as the only credible route to independence, and will continue to do so irrespective of who the leader is.
ReplyDeleteCongratulations on that voting record. Well done!
DeleteStimulating time to be an SNP member. Membership brings entitlement to attend SNP conference where it is possible for members to engage with MSPs and ministers in the government, giving the member a sense of purpose and empowerment.
ReplyDeleteGood post, agree fully. SNP activists are hard working and are passionate about the cause. Many SNP activists are up and out in the community working often before many people are up from under their covers.
DeleteIs that supposed to be comedy? At the last Westminster by-election in Scotland the SNP had to pay people to deliver pamphlets. The last time I saw an SNP activist in Edinburgh must have been about 6 years ago.
DeleteNonsense 6.50. SNP have a lot of activists. More than the other parties for sure.
DeleteI have no idea why the author is infatuated with a right-wing politician who thinks that people who have sex outside marraige will spend eternity on the end of Satan's toasting fork. Bizzaire.
ReplyDeleteHer traditional views provide a strong moral compass much lacking today. She deserves praise.
DeleteI think it's you who is infatuated with her religion - you seem utterly incapable of seeing past it.
DeleteFreeport’s Forbes made a very strategic error and cannot now attain the Leadership, Flynn has proven Political nous and vanquishing the vagabond Blackford proves his house of cards credentials
ReplyDeleteTime to give up on the utter nonsense of independence, it ain’t happening.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely…independence is not “the settled will “ of the people…only in some opinion polls and not by a big enough margin to be legitimate
DeleteLooks like Greens are oot!
ReplyDeleteI am not happy with this because the Greens were the only ones that were sound on LGBTQ+ questions.
DeleteImportant column by Riddoch:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thenational.scot/politics/24276988.snp-greens-cant-rise-disagreements-hope/
Hope there is still a possibility of putting this arrangement back together when the dust settles.
Well done Yousaf!
ReplyDeleteBit by bit he's been scrapping the Green's extreme silliness, now he's ditched them. He may surprise us all yet.
Meanwhile the Greens should learn from their time in government, especially separating student ideology from reality. If they can embrace some reality they may come back in future and be worth it, rather than a severe drain on Scotland's economy and morale.
And let the good times roll! Well, it is a lovely sunny day ...