How the SNP can - and cannot - afford to use independence in their general election campaigning

Stephen Noon said recently that the political energy has moved away from the issue of holding another vote on independence and towards kicking out the Tories at Westminster.  That's correct, but he's interpreting the significance of it wrongly - he thinks it's a force of nature that the SNP were powerless to resist and now just have to make the best of, whereas in fact to some extent it's the product of their own handiwork.  The worst thing that could possibly have happened was Nicola Sturgeon's resignation and the space it opened up for the devolutionist faction within the SNP to junk the clarity of her de facto referendum plan.

Those SNP MPs who think the solution to any electoral problem is ever more caution probably look at the current state of the polls and think they had a lucky escape when the de facto was scrapped.  How absurd it would have been, they probably think, to have tried to maintain that the target was 50% + 1 of the popular vote when it'll be enough of a struggle to end up in the mid-30s and outcount Labour in terms of seats.  How the media would have mocked us for our delusionalism.  And, again, such thinking cannot possibly be more wrongheaded, because the SNP would not be suffering their current plight if Sturgeon was still the leader and the de facto was still the plan, because that would have prevented the energy moving away from independence in the first place.

Of course the media wouldn't necessarily have played along with the SNP about the meaning of the election, but nevertheless that meaning would be currently contested between the "kick out the Tories" narrative and the "endgame for independence" narrative.  Independence supporters tempted to move back to Labour on the (bogus) basis that they need to do that to dislodge the Tories would feel genuinely conflicted when reminded that a 50% + 1 vote for the SNP would reverse the 2014 referendum outcome and establish an outright mandate for independence. By aiming for 50% + 1, the SNP probably wouldn't have got that, but they would have motivated enough independence supporters to vote for them that they might well have retained their seats majority and lived to fight another day.

So how can the SNP galvanise the independence vote in the absence of a de facto?  It may not even be possible to do it, but certainly the way you don't do it is in exactly the way it's obvious the SNP are gagging to try - ie. by blackmailing Yes supporters in a negative manner by saying that even though there's no plan to do anything about independence, people still have to vote SNP because independence will be killed off otherwise.  We saw the reaction from unionist politicians and activists to Tommy Sheppard's article attempting exactly that pitch - they were rubbing their hands with glee, imagining themselves after an SNP defeat saying "independence is dead and we have the SNP's own word for that".  It would be "once in a generation" on steroids.  What Sheppard did must never, ever be done again.

Perhaps a more promising tack would be to look carefully at Labour's own messaging and learn lessons from it.  Labour have their own problem, as we've seen with Anas Sarwar being put on the spot about whether a vote for Labour would be used "as an endorsement of the Union".  Fascinatingly he felt obliged to say it would not be, presumably because he knows Yes supporters moving to Labour are not on the whole ready to "move on from independence".  So could there be some mileage in warning indy supporters that Labour cannot be trusted with their votes?  That all Labour are looking for is a weapon to use against independence?

Additionally, Labour have taken to mocking the supposed complexity of the SNP's messaging, for example the idea that Humza Yousaf would be open to working with Keir Starmer.  "If you want MPs who will work with a Labour government, just vote Labour" is the chorus from Labour activists.  By the same token, couldn't the SNP point out that the idea independence supporters should vote Labour because that will not necessarily be taken as an endorsement of the Union is absurdly convoluted?  "If you want independence, just vote for an independence party"?

I also think Labour have got away with murder in portraying themselves as the "change" option when in fact they represent something almost indistinguishable from the status quo.  It's about time the SNP started loudly pointing out that independence is by far the biggest change on offer from anyone in Scottish politics.

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