Westminster REELS IN SHOCK as support for independence SURGES in new BOMBSHELL Redfield & Wilton poll - but Humza Yousaf's personal popularity slumps again, and the SNP are clinging on to a barely-there lead

Should Scotland be an independent country?  (Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 1st-2nd July 2023)

Yes 48% (+3)

No 52% (-3)

To some extent that's a reversion to the mean, because the 45% in the previous poll for Yes was unusually low, but a three-point jump does give me the opportunity to use the word "surges" in the headline in almost a non-ironic way.  The evidence that independence support is holding up irrespective of what happens to the SNP is now overwhelming - no matter how far the SNP slip, the Yes vote seems to remain in the familiar range, and that's a pattern across all polling firms.  Perhaps even more importantly, this is the second Redfield & Wilton poll in a row to show that a plurality of voters (41% to 40% in this case) want an independence referendum to be held within the next twelve months, providing a timely reminder that the likes of Alex Massie have no factual basis for their repeated claims that Scotland does not want a referendum.

Voters are almost split down the middle on what they think the result of an early independence referendum would be - 38% think Yes would win, and 42% think No would win.  That's potentially significant, because people will be basing their expectations on the views of their friends and families.  There's clearly still a lot of enthusiasm for independence out there, and not just among the members of volunteer online polling panels.

And now to the bad news - away from the independence numbers, this poll makes grim reading for the SNP in general and Humza Yousaf in particular.  The leadership will doubtless point out that the SNP are in the lead on all three ballots (Westminster, Holyrood constituency and Holyrood list) but as in yesterday's Survation poll, that lead is now barely there in all three cases.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:

SNP 35% (-2)

Labour 32% (+4)

Conservatives 21% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 7% (-2)

Greens 2% (-1)

Reform UK 2% (-1)

Seats projection (with changes from 2019 election): SNP 24 (-24), Labour 22 (+21), Conservatives 8 (+2), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)

Among the predicted carnage here, Alison Thewliss, Anne McLaughlin, Stewart McDonald, Patrick Grady, David Linden, Tommy Sheppard and Deidre Brock would all be losing their seats, and ironically a big part of the reason for that is the unpopularity of the man most of them pressurised SNP members to install as leader, even though Kate Forbes was clearly far more liked by the public.  Humza Yousaf's net personal rating has slipped back to -10 in this poll, putting him well behind Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (+4) and also behind UK Labour leader Keir Starmer (-1). And although he's ahead of Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross (-19), it's not exactly the gap of light-years you would customarily expect.

The leadership were clearly thinking on the right strategic lines when they reversed course to some extent by saying they will allow people to vote directly for independence at the general election.  With independence now so much more popular than the SNP (a gap that appears to be growing even further), it plainly makes sense to make a big offer to independence supporters who have drifted off to Labour, and who quite simply have little interest in the SNP unless independence is back on the table.  But it does look like the leadership problem is going to have to be addressed too if the SNP are to have any chance of averting electoral disaster next year.  Either Yousaf will have to go, or he'll have to belatedly swallow his pride and bring Kate Forbes, Ash Regan, and one or two key Forbes supporters into senior positions in a Unity Cabinet with essentially a collective leadership.

One glimmer of light for the SNP is that the net rating for the whole party is -2, which is only very slightly behind Labour's +1.  So there isn't necessarily a mountain to climb if only the leadership problem can be sorted out before the general election.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot: 

SNP 33% (-3)

Labour 30% (+1)

Conservatives 21% (-)

Liberal Democrats 10% (+2)

Greens 2% (-)

Reform UK 2% (-)

Alba 1% (-)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot: 

SNP 28% (+3)

Labour 26% (-1)

Conservatives 19% (-)

Liberal Democrats 12% (+2)

Greens 8% (-5)

Reform UK 4% (+2)

Alba 2% (-)

Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election): SNP 40 (-24), Labour 38 (+16), Conservatives 26 (-5), Liberal Democrats 15 (+11), Greens 10 (+2)

Off the top of my head, I can't recall a worse projection than that for the SNP in well over a decade.  40 seats is seven lower than they had when they first took power under Alex Salmond by the slenderest of margins in 2007.  It's possible that they could repeat the trick given that on these numbers they would remain two seats ahead of Labour, but I'm not at all convinced.  The momentum against the SNP would be such that Labour might feel justified in using external support from the Tories to install a Labour-Lib Dem minority coalition government.  An additional problem here is the five-point slump for the Greens on the list vote - we'll have to wait to see whether that's a freak result or the start of a trend caused by the public losing patience with the key role played by Green ministers in some of the Scottish Government's most high-profile failures.  The SNP and Greens in combination are projected to have just 50 seats, far behind the combined total of 79 for unionist parties.

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