New Survation poll shows independence support continuing to hold up impressively, while the SNP under Yousaf cling on to a precariously slender lead at both Westminster and Holyrood

So let's start with the customary good news - in common with all other recent polls, the new Survation poll shows support for independence holding up well, apparently unaffected by the trials and tribulations of the SNP.  There's a small decrease in the Yes vote from the previous Survation poll, but it's statistically insignificant.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Survation, 23rd-28th June 2023)

Yes 47% (-1)

No 53% (+1)

As far as party political voting intentions are concerned, I'm not sure this poll really takes us forward on the questions we want answered.  After the recent Panelbase poll showing the SNP level-pegging with Labour on the Westminster ballot, Team Humza must have feared that the next poll would show an outright Labour lead.  That hasn't happened, but the snag is that Survation's results have recently been more favourable to the SNP than we've seen from other firms, and a 3-point SNP lead is in fact the worst result for the SNP in a Survation poll since Yousaf became leader.  So it's perfectly consistent with the trend shown by Panelbase, suggesting that the SNP vote has drifted further downwards over Yousaf's three months in charge.  That could conceivably mean that if other pollsters tested opinion right now, they'd find a small Labour lead or a dead heat.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:

SNP 37% (-1)

Labour 34% (+3)

Conservatives 17% (-1)

Liberal Democrats 9% (-)

Seats projection (with changes from 2019 election): SNP 26 (-22), Labour 22 (+21), Conservatives 6 (-), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)

Of course there's the endless argument over whether the SNP are suffering because of Humza Yousaf's unpopularity with the public or because of the police investigation into people associated with the former Sturgeon leadership, but those two concepts are not hermetically sealed from each other.  Part of the problem Yousaf has with the public is that he is seen as Sturgeon's placeman, and so for as long as there is a cloud over her, it's a problem for him and for the SNP as a whole.  That problem can only be solved by fresh leadership, or by a unity team which puts an end to faction-only rule by Team Humza and brings Yousaf's rivals (who in many cases are also Sturgeon-sceptics) into senior positions, thus challenging the public perception that the current leadership is Continuity Sturgeon in all but name.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 38% (-1)

Labour 33% (+3)

Conservatives 16% (-3)

Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 30% (-2)

Labour 29% (+3)

Conservatives 17% (-2)

Greens 10% (-)

Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)

Reform UK 2% (-)

UKIP 1% (+1)

Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election): SNP 49 (-15), Labour 37 (+15), Conservatives 23 (-8), Greens 10 (+2), Liberal Democrats 10 (+6)

Once again, this poll shows the SNP practically being reduced to the same seat tally they had when they first took power by the skin of their teeth in 2007.  The pro-independence majority at Holyrood would be lost by some distance on these numbers - the SNP and Greens in combination would have 59 seats, and the unionist parties would have 70.

I must just note the weirdness and inconsistency of Survation's treatment of Alba.  In their previous poll in May, they included Alba as an option on both the Westminster and Holyrood list ballots, but this time Alba seem to have been totally excluded across the board - in spite of the fact that Alba took a decent 3% of the list vote in the previous poll, and also in spite of the fact that the obviously less popular UKIP are still being included as an option.  It literally makes no sense, except from a London-centric perspective in which Scotland-only parties are lazily assumed to be of less interest to poll respondents than UK-wide parties, however tiny.

I raised an eyebrow or two yesterday at the claim from one of Somerset's most-read Tory-voting bloggers that Mhairi Black was standing down because she knew she was going to get pumped at the general election, and because she also knew that if she switched to the Scottish Parliament, she would probably get in on the list.  The latter suggestion is curious due to Campbell's repeated vehement claims when he was floating the idea of a "Wings Party" that the SNP couldn't win list seats no matter how many list votes they took.  It's intriguing that he's now tacitly acknowledging that he led people up the garden path on that point.  And his other claim is innumerate, because Mhairi Black's seat is actually one of the 26 the SNP would hold on the above projections.  It would be a close-run thing, within a few percentage points, and any further worsening of the SNP's national position (which is entirely possible) could put the seat in the Labour column.  But the idea that the SNP aren't even in contention in the seat at this stage doesn't stand up to the remotest scrutiny.  The paradox of the claims that Black is deserting a sinking ship is that the SNP would have had a much better chance of holding her seat if she had been the candidate, because she presumably carries with her a small but important personal vote as an unusually well-known incumbent MP.

The criticism that I think can be fairly levelled at Black is over her claim that Westminster is a toxic work environment.  If you believe that, the logical response is to move the SNP decisively into the endgame for independence so that no-one in Scotland has to work in that environment ever again.  Instead, Black is planning a personal solution for herself only by (if the rumours are true) seeking to switch parliaments.  It seems she finds the ongoing prospect of Scotland's involvement in Westminster toxicity perfectly acceptable provided she isn't personally at the heart of it.

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