Thursday, March 23, 2023

New Ipsos poll shows Humza Yousaf's net approval rating has now slumped to -20, well behind both Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer - pointing to potential disaster for the SNP if Yousaf leads them into the next Westminster and Holyrood elections

We've been in a weird 'polling desert' since the Murrell scandal broke a few days ago, but at last we do have some up to date numbers.  Again, they come from polling of the general public rather than SNP members.  However, there appears to have been a YouGov poll of SNP members in the field for around a week, so we'll have to see if that eventually shows up, perhaps at the weekend.

The new Ipsos numbers come in the form of net approval ratings for each candidate and for other senior politicians.  They show Nicola Sturgeon's rating improving (just in time for that to no longer matter) while almost everyone else's falls.  Both Anas Sarwar and Kate Forbes have slipped into negative territory since the last poll, but the bad news for Humza Yousaf - who was already in negative territory in the last poll - is that he has slumped even deeper into the red and thus remains way behind both Sarwar and Forbes.

Ipsos net approval ratings (17th-21st March 2023):

Nicola Sturgeon (SNP): +8
Anas Sarwar (Labour): -4
Kate Forbes (SNP): -8
Keir Starmer (Labour): -9
Humza Yousaf (SNP): -20
Ash Regan (SNP): -24
Rishi Sunak (Conservatives): -37
Douglas Ross (Conservatives): -39

So the concern remains the same.  Kate Forbes looks capable of competing with Labour's leaders on a roughly equal footing, but Humza Yousaf does not - which gives us fair warning that a Yousaf-led SNP would be likely to suffer seat losses in the next Westminster and Holyrood elections, and possibly to surrender power to Labour.

Incidentally, some random troll quoted these exact numbers at me last night on Twitter, several hours before they were published, although he had the fieldwork dates wrong.  I'd be interested to know how that was possible, although I have my suspicions.  He seemed to think the numbers were somehow good for Yousaf, possibly because he didn't spot the minus symbol before the 20!

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Recently I've published results from TWO new Scot Goes Pop opinion polls - an opportunity to commission a second poll suddenly arose, so I made a snap decision to go ahead.  However, as you'll appreciate, polls are very expensive, so if anyone feels able to make a contribution, here are the options...

The simplest donation method is a direct Paypal payment. My Paypal email address is:

jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

If you wish, you can add a note saying "for the fundraiser", although even if you don't do that, it'll be fairly obvious what the payment is for.

If you don't have a Paypal account, last year's fundraiser is still very much open for donations HERE.

47 comments:

  1. We're aw doon the rabbit hole looking up at blue-skied confusion.

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  2. Not questioning your methodology at all James, but at a Westminster election, is it possible that people would vote for a party instead of a leader? Obviously Humza cant be PM, so no risk there if your preference is still for independence and you dont rate Starmer or Sunak. I wonder if people wiuld still be prepared to vote SNP despite Humza, given that Starmers Labour is still pretty right wing on many issues? Obviously that would be different at a Holyrood election where the SNP leader will be running the devolved government. Not an opinion. More of a question. Be interested in your rationale....

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    1. I think the total opposite is true. The SNP are at such a massive disadvantage in the 'away fixture' of Westminster elections that the leader becomes even more important. In all three Westminster elections that the SNP have won a majority, Nicola Sturgeon was the leader, and I struggle to imagine them matching that achievement with a much less popular leader.

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  3. Not great for Regan, it has to he said. Not great for any of them to he honest.

    Looking at FMQs now, whatever our differences Sturgeon is a class act. I hope the new FM has the firepower she demonstrates. It will be a short honeymoon

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    1. Anonymous at 12.52pm - a class act would have apologised for the lies about the membership numbers. Is that all you want from a FM someone who has enough firepower to take on Dross.? She has been able to do that with multiple opposition leaders - so what! Did she deliver on her multiple mandates for a referendum - no. So do you want a pantomime every Thursday or independence? You seem satisfied with a pantomime.

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    2. I’m really starting to pity you. It must take a great deal of energy to be so snarlingly, constantly, poisonously aggressive. ‘Sturgeon was a good communicator’ is about as uncontroversial as it comes. Yet here you are like Pavlov’s angriest dog, howling with bile and fury.

      Goodness knows what you’d do all day if your wifi went down!

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    3. How many dogs did Pavlov have?

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    4. Anonymous at 5.51pm - woof woof. Read your first post ya numpty you never said ' Sturgeon is a good communicator'. Read your second post it is you who is howling with fury.

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    5. Erm.. Im the first poster, not the second. But I agree with the sentiment. I note your perpetuity and passion IFS but can't help but feel it'd be better employed doing something positive.. youve got nothing positive to say and write nothing new either.

      It's a non controversial point that Sturgeon and Salmond had qualities lacking in the current candidates. I'd hope they can improve with time.

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    6. I'm sorry anon, but I can't understand how NS has a positive rating at all. She has been the worst FM we have ever had including the Labour ones. She still has not been able to get our Civil Service organised to take on the responsibility for administration of additional benefits in Scotland. This is the third time we have had to ask our imperial masters to help us out by continuing to do it for us. How on earth could she organise an independent country when she can't even do that? Her administration has a record of failure from beginning to end. She can't dual the A9, we ARE out of Europe against our wishes, no Indyref2 after eight mandates, up and down that hill so many times, atomised a united wide spectrum YES movement into factions, turning open government into a secretive and protective authority, restructuring the SNP into a top down organisation, and was never afraid to squash the initiatives of ordinary members of the public such as Martin Keatings with his Peoples Action on Section 30, I could go on - I really could, but what's the point? The woman was an absolute disaster.

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    7. These f*****g anonymous posters why should anyone take them seriously they cannae even identify themselves from other anonymous posters then come along going I'm not THAT anonymous poster. F*****g idiots.
      There is nothing "classy" about getting your pals and husband to try and send an innocent man to jail. Tell me anonymous prick just what is there positive to say about that. I have said previously that Sturgeon is an impressive politician - that is not the same as saying she is a class act. Blair was an impressive politician but he was a liar and an actor like Sturgeon. Blair killed hundreds of thousands and was not a class act.

      " Write nothing new" - I’m not writing novels for your entertainment you prick. How do I know some anonymous prick has been reading all my posts.

      WT - watch out that anonymous prick will tell you to wheest for Indy and say something positive. It's people like him that allowed Sturgeon to stay in power for so long.

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    8. "You seem happy with a pantomime"

      "Wheesht for indy"

      Reader: none of this was implied in anything written. you're too quick to insult and too thick to understand the comments made.

      You're probably the worst commentator on any indy blog. Even with those generally in agreement, you make it hard to be on your side as you come across as a brittle excuse and a bore.

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    9. Anonymous at 2.16pm - anonymous are you the anonymous prick or the one who likes dogs? You are too thick to identify your self. I do not want or need diddies like you on my side. If my comments are so bad then why read them. At least people know it is me posting. You hide.

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    10. Poster called Independence for Scotland greetin' about anonymity really does take the shortbread.
      Too thick to identify yourself. What does that even mean? bizarre.

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    11. Anonymous at 5.10pm - it means you are too thick to even understand that there are multiple anonymous posters. Only one IFS. So are you the anonymous prick or the anonymous dog man.

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  4. The problem with using all-Scotland-voters polls is that huge chunks of Tory and Labour voters will never vote for any SNP leader and with them, there is a possibility that those poll respondents are trying to game the polls.

    For example, during the Sunak-Truss contest there were chunks of Labour and SNP voters who preferred Truss because they recognised - correctly, as it turns out - the damage she would do to the Tory party.

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    1. People have been saying that kind of thing to me for almost as long as I've been writing this blog and it's just not true. The vast majority of people are not tactical in the way they respond to opinion polls - they're ordinary people who just say what they think.

      Incidentally, there *are* problems with looking at only the SNP voters in a sample, because that doesn't distinguish between 'soft' SNP voters who would seriously consider voting for other parties, and 'hard' SNP voters who would never waver regardless of who is leader, and who thus don't need to be worried about. There's no way of proving this, but my strong guess is that 'soft' SNP voters are probably much more like the general public, ie. more pro-Forbes.

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  5. Kate Forbes is getting my vote. Hopefully she can grow into the job, keep the religious stuff out of it and appeal to some of the soft unionists we need to persuade.

    Maybe she’s also someone who can usher in a more consensual style of politics. It’s what the Scottish parliament was supposed to deliver after all. Whilst it’s always been fun to watch Salmond or Sturgeon wiping the floor with their opponents, it’s always felt a bit like they’ve been aping Westminster, and isn’t really the grown up politics that many of us hoped for when Holyrood was set up. That’s perhaps largely been due to the feeble opposition, and it would take the patience of a saint to resist the urge to get them telt, but still, a more mature approach might communicate to Scots that we are ready to take full power over our country.

    Perhaps it’s a little premature to be looking to the future, but I also hope that whoever wins is already thinking about their successor. Compare and contrast the smoothness of Nicola’s coronation with this fractious leadership election.

    With that in mind I hope that Kate’s vision of a more collegiate approach is taken forward by the winner. A good leader doesn’t need to push everyone else down, but rather helps others to flourish. Then, when the time comes for a new leader, which is often sooner than anyone expects, there should be a good choice of quality candidates with solid achievements behind them. We might get away with one clusterbourach election, but I fear a repeat would cost a lot of support.

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    1. Absolutely. The one-woman show that was Nicola’s era has done us all no good.

      https://robinmcalpine.org/the-sturgeon-era-control-paranoia-and-vanity/

      How about a real citizen’s assembly on independence? In the style of Ireland’s for abortion, rather than the “did we really do that?” sideshows we have tried here.

      How about real consultation with the movement and the public on the way forward now that the section 30 route has been killed stone dead?

      How about sharing the load and sharing the decisions? How about doing what we say we do, instead of well spoke empty words?

      Kate comes across as someone who is up for this. Don’t fail us all again!

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    2. Have to be honest McAlpine has gone down in my estimations here.

      Evidence free diatribe full of emotion and little fact.

      Paragraph upon paragraph of adjectives describing traits without any backup. Full of tropes and reductive claptrap.

      And I don't agree Sturgeon has been brilliant. But some are going way way overboard.

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  6. In all the sickly thanks to everybody and their dug ( no not the wee ginger one- he didn't get a mention) Sturgeon churned out today I seemed to miss the thanks to her husband. Already forgotten - nothing to do with her. Is he in Portugal already?

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  7. Did she thank Eck? That would have been mighty big of her. And entirely accurate, too. Who put her where she was? Who will forever overshadow her as she has no legacy besides for fine talk yet wasted opportunity?

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    1. She never even thanked the alphabetties or Sandy Brindley of Rape Crisis Scotland for their service.

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  8. See when Alyn Smith SNP MP was promoting Stirling to be UK City of Culture for 2025 do you think he had insider info that the promised referendum for 2023 was only something for numpties to believe.

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  9. James is quite right Humza ain't popular with the public the SNP are facing an electoral disaster if he wins .At least 20 seats will go to Labour in the next UKGE .
    Independence will be put back years if he becomes FM
    .

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    1. Im not sure what to think about that. I agree Humza is not as impressive an operator os Kate Forbes who definitely looks more First Ministerial. But hypothetically, if I were a left leaning indy supporter, do I prefer someone less impressive who espouses my values (more so than Starmes Labour) or do I go with the more impressive candidate whose policy platform sounds not unlike Starmers? If indy isnt coming soon, might I feel that I am as well vote Starmer and to try and get rid of the tories? I think this is a very fluid situatiin that could go either way regardless of who wins....

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  10. We will only move the cause of Scottish independence forward if we get a majority vote for independence and that is why Sturgeon and the Britnats have been putting up roadblocks. The only candidate that seems to realise that is Regan. The other two are taking us back to 2015 and have no plan to have a vote on Scottish independence.
    Some numpties and anonymous pricks seem transfixed over whether a candidate will be good at FM questions, have good communication skills or hold the same values or policies as them but that just makes them devolutionalists who will take us on the same journey we experienced for the last 8 years with Sturgeon.

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  11. Why are young people more in favour of Independence? If the older generations just worry about pension payments by the State there is no way to get independence

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  12. Have you and Barrhead Boy had a bit of a ' difference of opinion' recently?
    He is less than complimentary about your goodself in a btl comment on his latest blog.

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    1. No, I've had no interaction with him at all since I was voted off the Alba NEC last October, and I can honestly say I haven't even looked at his blog in all that time. So presumably he's just nursing an age-old grievance. My impression of him, for what it's worth, is that he's got quite a deep-seated inferiority complex. When he occasionally lashes out and belittles people, it's like he's over-compensating for something. In that sense he's the complete opposite of Stuart Campbell, who actually does believe he's God.

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    2. Ouch! Tinhats everybody... incoming from Bath!...lol

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    3. That Barrhead boy is giving the impression HQ are going to be changing the result, stuffing votes etc. It comes across loony because it is.

      I watch the show and it would be much better if they kept to what they can evidence. They go way overboard. Plenty about the race to be questioned but they go to far. It looks daft. That Lloyd Quinnon was seriously saying HQ were faking the vote for Humza and now they've changed their mind for Forbes!? Confused face insert here...

      Even the panel thought that was a bridge too far.

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  13. I see two-finger Harvie is in the National saying the SNP should vote for Yousaf as he'll throw his toys out of the pram and refuse to work with Regan or Forbes. Hopefully the SNP members will follow his commands and accept he is the actual leader of the SNP. Woof woof.

    Nick Chuggins

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  14. The SNP is fkd - indy's out the window for at least a decade - they've publicly flogged themselves into a puddle of confused, inconsistant, aimless, gutless idiocy. Why would people vote for this Sturgeon-created limp messageless tosh ? Is anyone here truly enthousiastic at the possibility of voting SNP ? Of course, some will - the true indy believers - but enough of the Scottish electorate will be numbed, disheartened by and ambivilent towards the SNP to result in it losing its hold on power.

    Our only hope is that a new leader worth something will emerge and that the Brit parties will continue their corrupt incompetence.

    Thank you Sturgeon...

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  15. Looking from afar, who is most likely to win this contest? Kate or Humza? I think Kate would probably do the SNP most good politically (at least over the long term) She seems to be the one with a chance of persuading a proportion of Labour and/or Tory softer unionists to start voting SNP.

    Her environmental credentials seem to be lacking though.

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  16. Munguin Republic

    Never looked at this blog before - thank goodness - a nicophant author and loads of nicophants below the line. Some of the nicophants prattling on about how oor Nicola will get a great international job. I thought she was quitting because she was tired! If she can take up an international job then why doesn't she stay and deliver the referendum she promised. She is a Britnat that's why. If she gets an international job I wouldn't be surprised if she did a deal with Sunak at the meeting they had.

    Sunak - " I'll get you a great new international job Nicola with a better salary and big expenses and you scupper the de facto referendum by resigning as FM. How does that sound?"

    Sturgeon - "excellent Rishi just tell me when but obviously it will have to be sorted before the SNP special democracy conference. I'll even through in a promise to try and get Humza installed as my replacement."

    Sunak and Sturgeon both laugh and shake hands.

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    1. I'm going to stick up for Munguin's Republic, because Tris - who writes it - was hugely supportive of Scot Goes Pop in its early years and has given me some very good advice at difficult moments.

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    2. Always thought Munguin was a guy.

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  17. WGD numpty Capella says:- " Watch Borgen on Netflix. The latest series is uncannily similar to our experience."
    Sturgeon has previously stated this is her favourite programme and it looks like she has taken inspiration from Birgit and not Jacinda. So on this occasion I think the numpty may be on to something. Although I'm not sure Sturgeon will have got blind drunk and had sex with her official driver as in Borgen.

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    1. Oh for heavens sake give it a rest IfS.......Its Friday night...go for a night out or something and splash the cash from your latest paycheque courtesy of Q-Anon.

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    2. Anonymous at 6.36pm - thanks for your sincere concern. So many caring anonymites.

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  18. Can we expect one final poll on SNP member preferences before Monday? I heard YouGov was doing one.

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    1. Several commenters on this blog mentioned taking the YouGov poll towards the end of last week, so there's not much doubt that it exists. The only remaining question is whether it's a private poll. If it was commissioned by a newspaper or was self-funded by YouGov, we should see the results at some point between now and Monday morning.

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    2. Great, thanks James. When are the results being announced on Monday?

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    3. The vote closes at midday. I'm not sure if an exact time for the declaration has been given yet, but presumably early afternoon.

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