1) The SNP have 64 of the 128 voting members of the Scottish Parliament - exactly half. That excludes the non-voting Presiding Officer, and compares to just 47 seats for the SNP when Alex Salmond was first elected as First Minister fifteen years ago.
2) The new SNP leader, no matter whether that person is Humza Yousaf, Ash Regan or Kate Forbes, will be able to count on the support of all, or almost all, of those 64 SNP MSPs in the election for First Minister. The reason is that elections for First Minister in mid-term are tantamount to votes of confidence in the government, and thus any SNP MSP who votes against their leader, or who fails to vote without a valid excuse, will undoubtedly lose the party whip and will not be eligible to stand for the party in future elections. They would effectively be throwing their careers away, and if there's one thing we know about parliamentarians who have endorsed Humza Yousaf, it's that they really, really value their careers.
3) At the margins it's not impossible that one or two particularly zealous MSPs might make a career-ending stand by opposing their new leader in the vote. (Emma Roddick was speculated about as a possibility, although she has since given an "SNP till I die" oath of loyalty.) But that wouldn't make any difference, because under the rules an absolute majority of MSPs is not required to be elected First Minister. In 2007, Alex Salmond was elected with just 49 votes (47 SNP, 2 Green) - which was only 38% of the voting MSPs. On the final ballot, by which point Jack McConnell was the only remaining opponent for Salmond who hadn't yet been eliminated, 46 votes (36%) went to McConnell and the remainder abstained. The abstentions were disregarded, and Salmond was declared the winner because his 49 votes slightly outcounted the 46 for the only other remaining candidate. It will therefore be extremely easy for the new SNP leader to get elected with 62 or 63 votes. The only way that would not be the case is if every single other party, plus any SNP rebel, actively votes for Douglas Ross to become First Minister. Anyone who thinks Labour, let alone the Scottish Green Party, is about to install a Tory-led government is living in Narnia.
There endeth the lesson, there explodeth the myth.
If you haven’t voted yet please do. If you need another link you can get one here: https://t.co/TB6F3Vq7Ja #forbes4FM @theSNP https://t.co/Z1TXJJCvXf
— Michelle Thomson (@MichelleThomson) March 24, 2023
Only 2 days left before voting closes. I am the only candidate with a clear route map towards independence. 50%+1 in any HR or WM election then we commence withdrawal negotiations from the UK. No ifs, no buts. Independence, nothing less. #voteAshRegan pic.twitter.com/tX0GGqw5N4
— Ash Regan MSP (@AshReganSNP) March 25, 2023
Meanwhile pro indy politicians waste their and Scotland's time in the Westminster cesspit. Sinn Fein has the right strategy.
ReplyDeleteI think it's you that needs to get a grip. Sinn Fein abandoned all of that a quarter of a century ago. Anon at 2.39 was referring to abstentionism, not violence.
DeleteHow does this tie-in with the approach you suggested (several months ago) for bringing about a snap Holyrood election? If I remember correctly, the idea was that the SNP would essentially need to vote for no confidence in itself… but based on the above, wouldn’t that have resulted in another party (or group of parties) forming a government and Scotland having a non-SNP First Minister? I’m clearly missing something here, so would you mind helping me to understand?
ReplyDeleteYes, you are missing something, and I explicitly addressed the point you're missing in some detail in those previous posts you were referring to. If the SNP engineer an early election without changing the standing orders, it would involve the First Minister of the day resigning, and the SNP then abstaining in the subsequent First Minister election. As I pointed out, Douglas Ross could take advantage of the rules allowing a First Minister to be elected on a minority vote - however I also pointed out that any government he formed would be non-viable without SNP support, and would quickly lose a confidence vote and be ousted from office. I then pointed out that the Tories could attempt a stunt like that once, but not multiple times, because they would quickly try the public's patience. An early election would therefore inevitably follow.
DeleteNone of the above would apply in the scenario we're talking about today, because the SNP won't be abstaining in the First Minister election - they'll be voting to install their own leader as FM, and they have the numbers to do that easily. Douglas Ross will not become FM, even for a week.
Great, I understand now — thanks for the explanation, I appreciate it!
DeleteWhoever wins on Monday needs to dumb the Greens, for the sake of a prosperous and Indy ready Scotland.
ReplyDeleteI hope we get that YouGov poll soon.
ReplyDeleteWe may end up wishing we'd never got it, if it shows the wrong result.
DeleteNicola sturgeon is going to gain personal freedom by learning to drive. That’ll be helpful on keeping the Greens on board. It’s a directly unhelpful message to push when we have a parliament agreed climate emergency. Don’t know if she has been misquoted by the bbc but it’s ridiculous to have given them that option.
ReplyDeleteDonald
Donald she has not been misquoted as she states it clearly in an interview with her pal Glen Campbell of her key and valued institution called the BBC.
DeleteI think it would be a nice gesture if all three candidates stood together as FM and shared the role between them. They could do a month at a time and everybody would be happy. Simples.
ReplyDeleteImposter who is probably a WGD numpty. A very sad person who is upset that Sturgeon has done a runner leaving numpties with egg on their face.
DeleteIona Paton, a Yousaf supporter who just loves Sturgeon and hates Salmond. A perfect example of Sturgeon's legacy of division and hatred within the SNP. They should name that unfinished ferry HMS Sturgeon and leave it as it is as a perfect reminder of Sturgeon's legacy.
ReplyDeleteProbably be the evangelist who wins - to her credit, she's neither gimmicky nor a weather vane; to her demerit, she's a junior Sturgeon (albeit without the trans obsession).
ReplyDeleteWho knows, maybe the Greens will become Scotland's new pro-indy campaigners in the forthcoming indy vacuum.