Friday, February 24, 2023

UPDATE: Boost for Kate Forbes as it emerges today's poll showing her in the lead was conducted almost entirely post-witch-hunt

So for those of you who saw my post earlier today about the poll of SNP voters showing another clear lead for Kate Forbes, you'll know that I raised the question of how a big a percentage of the poll was conducted before the witch-hunt against Ms Forbes started.  The fieldwork for the poll opened on Monday, and it wasn't really until Monday night that the media pile-on started.

I've now been informed by an authoritative source ("I'm hearing that..." as Laura Kuenssberg would say) that the fieldwork didn't actually begin until 5pm on Monday evening, which should mean that almost all of it took place post-witch-hunt, or post-the-start-of-witch-hunt at any rate. That could be extremely good news for Ms Forbes, because it may mean that her popularity has proved far more resistant to concerns about her religious views than many people were banking on.  However, as ever, we'll just have to await more evidence.

30 comments:

  1. As I commented on your previous post James, from that poll it seems the SNP voters don't care much about the faith question. They're much more focussed on the cost of living crisis, health, the overall economy and education. Independence is on a par with the overall economy. Most want an indyRef in the next 2 years, a few are content to wait up to 5 years.

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    1. 5 years is too long to wait.

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    2. It's not a 'faith' question. It's a 'religion' question.

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    3. How many people answering that poll do you think would have made a philosophical distinction of that sort?

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  2. Mhairi Black joins the pile on Forbes with a rant on Twitter. At least, at present anyway, she is not claiming to be a Christian of the superior type but is clearly a Sturgeonite. I hoped for better from Black at one point.

    Forbes will have trouble getting support from SNP politicians as there is a well above average percentage of LGBTQ ( sorry if I have missed out any letters or ++ no offence intended) within their ranks.

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    1. Aye I saw some of those venemous rants. Black has turned into another rabid Yoon Westmidden Trougher as far as I am concerned. Black along with many others dont realise that they were selected and then elected to promote Scots Indy and to take us towards an Indy Scotland. They need booted out as they are more interested in making us sexial deviants or just pervs.

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    2. Black is offended by Forbes. Did Black consider she might offend people by taking a drag queen to a primary school called Flow Job or something like that? Did she care?

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    3. "Forbes will have trouble getting support from SNP politicians as there is a well above average percentage of LGBTQ ( sorry if I have missed out any letters or ++ no offence intended) within their ranks."

      So you think LGBTQ people will be less likely to support her? Why?

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    4. Its a shame nearly a hundred years its taken for the SNP to get were it is today and a few people who aren't even interested in Independence is going to destroy it all, if they haven't already. I'm not worried about Kate her faith will keep her strong and if the members want her she'll be elected as FM, I just hope Kate remembers who put her there and for what reason and doesn't turn out to the another Unionist just in it for the money and fame.

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  3. Oh well Skier gets it wrong again. It's a long list.
    STV to broadcast a leadership debate.

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  4. It's obvious that Regan is the only candidate worth anything for the movement - the other 2 candidates are grimly unsuitable for a leader of an indy movement. I had thought at one juncture Yousaf would have been a good leader one day - but he supped at the Sturgeon Kool-Aid well.

    I don't see any of them inspiring a country to the goal of independence.

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  5. Kate Forbes would be a disaster for the SNP, she would (as she has already done) divide the party, represent a shift to the right which would then open up a nice wee gap on the left for Labour to move into, occupy and start siphoning voters back to their cause. Post a labour Holyrood victory Scottish Parliament would go back to being a Westminster policy implementing rubber stamp executive.

    Ash is the only one who appears to have the impetus and desire to move Scotland forward both united and at pace.

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    1. I agree with you about Ash - our best hope for independence, but Forbes hasn't divided the party it's the shit that Sturgeon has caused that divided it. Under Salmond everybody and anybody was welcome in the movement, t was upbeat and positive, it's Sturgeon who has poisoned and demoralised the movement.

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  6. Any thoughts on this Dyce by-election?

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1629085928873463809?t=joTfrc5UqtG17HkY8pNr9Q&s=19

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  7. Ash Regan is the only one going to deliver Independence the other two are a pair of wasters.

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    1. Agreed!
      Her announcement today that it will be if the Scottish public vote at any election for Independence parties as a majority, then that will enough for Scotland to declare UDI, and invite Westminster to negotiate Scotland's independence then that is enough for me.
      This is how the majority of other former colonies have gained their independence, not by asking Westminster's permission to hold a referendum, but simply by declaring that the people have voted and they have voted for independence.
      If you continually ask for permission to vote for independence then the constant answer is going to be NO, regardless of who is in power and regardless of how many mandates you have won year after year to hold a referendum
      Westminster doesn't do democracy, that much is obvious.
      You simply state that the people have voted and we are withdrawing from the 1707 Treaty of Union.
      Did Britain have to ask permission of the EU to hold a referendum on whether to remain in the EU? NO!
      Yet they claim that we need their permission to hold a referendum to leave the UK.
      Again! Westminster does not do democracy, and never will, regardless of who's in power.
      We have had mandate after mandate since 2014 and still nothing has happened. In 2015 we returned 56 out of 59 MP's
      and nothing happened. The Scottish public voiced their will in that election but nothing was acted on, and so in 2017 the Independence movement didn't go out and vote because they were in disgust that that vote wasn't acted on, rightly so IMO, that in turn let the unionist parties gain ground. But that Election result was the moment that UDI should have been declared, when the absolute majority of Scottish voters voted against Westminster control.
      The SNP however, sat on their hands, preferring to chase a section 30 order which was never ever ever going to be granted, and never ever ever will be granted.
      You do what Ash says " 50% +1 means Independence.
      No If's, no but's.

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  8. Actual disagreement and debate has broken out over on WGD. They seem pretty evenly split between Forbes leaners and Yousaf leaners.

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    1. That's progress of a sort.

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    2. For the first time in about a decade they have not been told by Kavanagh and/or Sturgeon what line to follow. Must be confusing for them to start trying to think for themselves, particularly when the bad faith actor Skier chucks his propaganda in to the mix.

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    3. Who cares? They have facilitated this shit storm. Their adulation of a person rather than driving forward the cause over the last eight years has been part of the disaster that is today's YES movement.

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  9. Bella's got his knickers in a twist. he must of AIM'd and missed.

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  10. Mhairi Black isn't fit to lace Katie's boots. She has been shown for what she is. A gender obsessed fake nationalist. Didn't she once say she was really a Labour party voter. She jumped on the indi bandwagon in 2014. Scotland needs to do better than these inarticulate clowns.

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  11. If Mhairi Black is reading this PLEASE enter into the race for First Minister!

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  12. Yousaf has been lying today on multiple TVs programmes about his non vote on gay marriage. Par for the course for any member of Sturgeons club. Just why did this self confessed lover of Glasgow and Glasgow boy move to Dundee well away from his Glasgow constituency and Holyrood.

    Expect more of the same lying for many years to come if he is FM along with rank incompetency.

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  13. I'm going for Regan, the best of the three for me.

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  14. I'm a SNP member and I've not done any polls yet but I'm going to be voting for either Forbes or Ash but I'm looking at the moment it's going to be Forbes for me. Will wait until I see them both on TV then decide as for Humza every time I see him answering questions it looks to me he's going to burst into tears and wants to run away! So it's not going to be him for me.

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  15. WGD numpty Hamish100 joins the anti democratic Skier in being anti democratic. You would think this was their local bowling club they were electing a leader for. Hamish says:- " Whoever agreed to a tv hustings debate should reconsider and stop it now. "

    The numpties are having a hard time as a gay poster tears in to them for supporting Forbes on the blog of a gay man . Old Pete calls for the big dug to tell him what he wants not long after he declares "Vote Kate Forbes, best choice by a mile." Thinking for themselves is proving hard for the numpties. Not a word by the big dug on the leadership contest - last post 16Feb.

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    1. Are Skier and Hamish worried that the people will see who actually wants independence and who wants to keep kicking the can down the road for ever and ever. It's about time these people who say they are for independence but also say the distant future is the time for independence are called out as being de facto Britnats/unionists. They are just the same as Theresa May's now is not the time. The time for them is NEVER. I'm talking about Sturgeon's gang and that includes Yousaf.

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  16. Can someone explain why she’s so popular? I’m not meaning this in a negative way. I honestly hadn’t heard of her til recently and want to know more. I think her social views suck but obviously people say she’s strong on independence. What has she said re: indy? Like has she been stronger than the other female candidate who’s name I forget? Anyone wanna give me a quick overview? Has she had words on non-social issues like the economy etc?

    If I try and even search her I just find the negative articles and nothing about why people might like her so I’d like to know because she’s clearly popular.

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