A new poll related to the SNP leadership election is out. Crucially it has fieldwork dates from after the witch-hunt against Kate Forbes got underway, although there's a caveat on that - the poll opened on Monday, and if memory serves me right the witch-hunt didn't get properly underway until Monday evening. So much depends on what percentage of responses were received by then. It's also a poll of SNP voters only.
Preferred SNP leader, SNP voters only (Opinion Matters / BIG Partnership, 20th-22nd February 2023)
Kate Forbes 28%
Humza Yousaf 20%
Ash Regan 7%
Someone told me last night that the news programme on the BBC Scotland channel was talking up a poll that was coming out with some major surprises. Does anyone know if this is the one they were talking about, or if there's another one I've overlooked? If it's this one, I'm not really sure what the surprise is, because Kate Forbes has been ahead in all the previous polls and she's ahead in this one. Or is the surprise supposed to be Humza not being in last place? That's not a genuine change, because earlier polls have had a different format, with net ratings that subtract the number of people who don't like him from the number of people who do. The new numbers only show the percentages who positively prefer each candidate, which leaves Mr Yousaf with an in-built advantage over Ash Regan because he's better known than she is.
Remember, though, that even this poll is not sampling the actual electorate in the leadership election, which will be composed only of SNP members, and not mere voters or supporters. That's the reason for fearing Mr Yousaf is being underestimated by the polling evidence so far, because many SNP members are reflexively loyal to the current leadership, which is clearly behind Mr Yousaf as the continuity candidate. And although The National haven't as far as I know given an explicit endorsement to Mr Yousaf, they also haven't been particularly subtle about their attempts to undermine Ms Forbes' campaign, which is arguably tantamount to support for Mr Yousaf.
I've been trying to work out the likely psychological effect of the very silly story in the Record about how some SNP MSPs will refuse to help install Ms Forbes as First Minister if she wins the leadership election. This is clearly part of a 'shock and awe' campaign to intimidate members into thinking they have no choice but to vote for Mr Yousaf - but could it backfire? Could SNP members resent being blackmailed, and resent even more the implication that there are MSPs who would be so appallingly disloyal to their party and to the independence cause? I suppose we're about to find out whether SNP members will just obediently go along with absolutely anything that is chucked at them, or whether they have minds of their own.
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SNP MSPs may toe the line and vote for Forbes if she wins but Harvie has said the Greens will not and as the Greens are ultra zealot self ID I suspect the SNP/ Green agreement would collapse. Some SNP members are saying they are not voting Regan because that is who Alba want but will they vote Yousaf because that is what the Greens want.
ReplyDeleteHatred of Alba and GRR seem to sadly be the focus of many SNP members. In a normal sensible world, as distinct from Sturgeons Scotland, SNP voters would welcome televised debates to see and hear what they have to say and if they are truly independence supporters they would choose who is strongest on independence.
The tactic seems to be to monster Forbes on religious grounds and Regan as being an Alba stooge. The whole spectacle is revolting. What a binfire Sturgeon has left behind.
DeleteFelix
More evidence of Sturgeons gang working with the Britnat media.
ReplyDeleteAsh Regan's speech this morning is truncated by the BBC to go to an SNP youth guy Alexander Swanson from Stirling who blatantly lies about the Scottish public being fully behind the GRR bill and trashes Regan. This dumpling Swanson still thinks a sec 30 will be achieved. Perhaps he is happy to follow AlynSmith and S. McDonald and wait until 2050 but I don't call that being an independence supporter.
" For me independence is the immediate priority..." and that is the point at which the BBC stopped broadcasting Regan's speech and cut over to the dumpling Swanson who wants Yousaf as leader. The Greens are very important says Swanson.
Regan wants independence, people like Swanson want GRR zealots like the Greens.
Independence doesn't even get a mention with these characters . When did the SNP become the Gay Liberation Front? I'm honestly sick of hearing the same old tripe day after day with nary a mention of independence.
DeleteFelix (can't log on as Felix these days)
Currently mulling over what is the most incredulous.
ReplyDelete1. SNP members are not the least concerned about someone like Murray Foote working in the heart of the SNP.
2. SNP members not concerned about the man (Murrell) who would not let their member elected Treasurer look at the party's accounts (who then resigned in protest) and has a current polis investigation into such accounts being the man overseeing the leadership election.
The SNP will get what it deserves and that is Useless Yousaf as leader. The sooner Alba will rise on the dead carcass that is now the SNP. If the SNP aren't about Independence then they are nothing, they are just another Incompetent anti Scottish Party in essence.
ReplyDeleteFor some of us who could no longer stomach Sturgeon's evasions and GRR authoritarianism within the SNP Regan is, or is near to, the last chance for that party to get back on the rails. Failing that I suppose we're going to have to go for the long haul and start trying to iron out the wrinkles in Alba.
ReplyDeleteOldie WGD numpty Hamish100 thinks he is back in the eighties when Ronald Reagan was about. "Reagan should have joined Alba." says Hamish.
ReplyDeleteThe Herald reports a few more findings from the poll: https://archive.is/VCutu
ReplyDeleteInterestingly only 5% of SNP voters think that the new leader’s faith or personal beliefs are important. One reason why Kate is still leading the way perhaps.
PROPAGANDA SKIER STYLE
ReplyDelete1. Skier starts off by saying Regan is getting favourable treatment by the British media. " Is it me, or is Ash Regan getting the kid gloves by the British media? Can't seem to find any negative stories? They seem to be mainly neutral to positive."
2. Soon after he finds this:- " Quite a friendly write up for Ash Regan from the Spectator. Looks to me like she's their favourite in addition to being Craig Murray's."
Desperate stuff from Skier.
I have always believed that most of the WGD numpties were independence supporters who have just been led down the wrong path by bad faith actors ( Britnat cuckoos in the SNP nest). Skier is different I wouldnt be surprised if he was in the pay of Murrell along with Murray Foote. Has money raised from independence supporters for Indyref2 been financing Britnat cuckoos in SNP nest? Now that would be the ultimate insult to independence voters.
You're not a very nice person...are you.
DeleteI thought you were a WGD numpty but it's odds on now that you are a bot that Skier or Murray Foote has setup.
DeleteMost SNP members don't follow social media. Outwith the bubble of social media life goes on. I spoke to a few of the more mature members and they lean more to Kate Forbes. Although her religious views are at odds with most of them they said the next referendum will be won or lost on the economy. They liked her honesty. Shades of the 1992 USA Election. "Its the economy stupid." She comes over quite clear on economic issues to them. Just one straw in the wind.
ReplyDeleteHow many more of these Christians are going to come out of the woodwork. Ross Greer being the latest to tell us his Christianity is the right stuff and Forbes version not so much. This is shades of the old medieval Inquisition/Reformation days. These numpties think this is progressive - get a grip. Of course Ross refers to his Christian God as their. Has Ross be in communication with God and asked God what God's preferred pronouns are. This is all very confusing I thought Christians believed the Bible is the word of God. So has Greer got approval from God for a rewrite of the Bible to change HIM to THEIR?
ReplyDeleteNo wonder Andy Wightman got chucked out the Greens - they are full of looony tunes. I wouldn't let people like Greer or Maggie Chapman anywhere near children. It's bad enough Somerville being in charge of the education of our children but these Greens make her seem normal.
If you vote Yousaf you get these nutters.