Sunday, November 20, 2022

WINGS-WATCH: Fact-checking the bogus claims that support for independence was at "25% and falling" in 2007, and then "consistently in the lead" just before Nicola Sturgeon became SNP leader

By popular demand, welcome to our new Wings-Watch service, in which Scot Goes Pop will be - as and when required - fact-checking some of the more dubious and outlandish claims made by the well-known Yoon-curious blog Wings Over Scotland, which recently raised eyebrows by announcing it was "coming back" even though it had never actually closed.  

I must admit the first installment of Wings-Watch has come up a lot quicker than I expected, but it's proved necessary because the formerly Yes-supporting Wings blogger Stuart Campbell has chosen to devote his entire "comeback" (sic) blogpost to a lightly rewritten version of several of his previous posts in which he made a number of seriously dodgy claims about opinion polling, in an attempt to buttress his narrative that Nicola Sturgeon's leadership has been a failure.  (Of course, the belief that Ms Sturgeon has failed is perfectly defensible and I don't fully disagree with it, but it's nevertheless important for anyone who claims their output is "journalism" to avoid making bogus or distorted claims of fact to support their arguments.)

Wings Claim #1: "Salmond became First Minister with...support for independence at 25% and falling."

VERDICT: Intentionally misleading.  Mr Campbell's text links to a graph from Ipsos UK (formerly Ipsos Mori), which states in the small print that data between 1999 and 2008 comes from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey.  That survey is not comparable with standard independence polls as we know them today, because it did not ask the binary-choice question "Should Scotland be an independent country?".  It instead presented independence as one of three constitutional options - a format which until very recently almost always produced lower support for independence than standard binary-choice polling.  Furthermore, Don't Knows weren't removed from the Social Attitudes Survey, in contrast to the headline results from standard independence polls in the present-day which always strip Don't Knows out.  Essentially Mr Campbell is presenting readers with an apples-and-oranges comparison to make it look as if Yes support increased between 2007 and 2014 far more than it actually did.

For example, there was binary-choice polling in 2007 which showed support for independence at 39.5% and opposition at 45%.  With Don't Knows removed, that works out as roughly Yes 47%, No 53% - actually a smaller gap than the one recorded at the independence referendum seven years later.  You'll find that pretty much any claim that independence support was lower than 30% at any point in the decade leading up to the indyref depends on the sleight of hand of not stripping out the Don't Knows from a cherry-picked poll that was particularly poor for Yes, and/or using a multi-option poll that is not comparable with current polls.

Actually, Mr Campbell has shot himself in the foot by using the Social Attitudes Survey as his baseline for independence support in 2007, because that decision alone drives a coach and horses through his narrative that Ms Sturgeon has failed to increase the Yes vote.  Unlike conventional polling, the Social Attitudes Survey has found a massive increase in independence support since Ms Sturgeon became leader - it's gone from 33% in 2014 (the last survey conducted when Mr Salmond was leader) to 52% in the most recent survey in 2021.  Indeed, with one exception there's been a steady year-on-year increase - since 2014, the sequence of results has been 33 - 39 - 46 - 45 - 51 - 52.

As long-term readers will know, there is no greater admirer of Alex Salmond than myself, but I nevertheless must profess myself deeply puzzled at the subtext of Mr Campbell's suggestion that independence support was "falling" when Mr Salmond became First Minister in 2007.  Mr Salmond's second stint as SNP leader started in 2004, not in 2007, so if the implication is that he can take the credit for any increase in Yes support between 2007 and 2014, it would presumably be equally logical for him to take responsibility for what happened to independence support between 2004 and 2007.

Wings Claim #2: "After seven years he bequeathed Sturgeon...support for independence consistently in the lead."

VERDICT: Lie.  There appears to have been only three independence polls between the independence referendum and Nicola Sturgeon becoming SNP leader.  Two of those polls showed a Yes lead and one showed a No lead - so it's self-evidently untrue to claim that independence was "consistently" in the lead.  Additionally, one of the two polls with a Yes lead (which ironically was commissioned by Mr Campbell himself) used a non-standard question.

Wings Claim #3: "But none of the last six independence polls, and just three of the last 30, have shown Yes in the lead."

VERDICT: Essentially a lie, with one important caveat.  What I mean here is that Mr Campbell supports his claim with a screenshot from the list of independence polls from Wikipedia, but he's cynically used an out-of-date screenshot which excludes the most recent Ipsos UK poll showing a Yes majority.  Below you'll find an up-to-date screenshot of the same table, taken at 6.34pm this evening, and which as you can see includes the Ipsos UK poll.  So on that basis the claim that "none of the last six" polls have shown Yes in the lead is an outright lie.

The important caveat I mentioned is that the Ipsos UK poll used a non-standard question.  Nevertheless, it's there in the Wikipedia list this evening and that's the list Mr Campbell is claiming as his source.

If anyone was harbouring hopes that Mr Campbell might have a greater commitment to factual accuracy now that he's "returned" (sic) from his "rest" (sic), this would not appear to be the most encouraging of starts.

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21 comments:

  1. Yay! This is going to be a valuable feature, James, many thanks. Of course his cult followers will still lap up the lies, but it's important to confront them with the extent to which they've been hypnotised.

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  2. This has made my night. Fantastic.

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  3. Wasn't there once a dedicated Wings Watch website? Great to see SGP pick up the baton.

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  4. "Actually, Mr Campbell has shot himself in the foot by using the Social Attitudes Survey as his baseline for independence support in 2007, because that decision alone drives a coach and horses through his narrative that Ms Sturgeon has failed to increase the Yes vote. Unlike conventional polling, the Social Attitudes Survey has found a massive increase in independence support since Ms Sturgeon became leader"

    Very important point.

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  5. Campbell and Co are the New Unionists. Vitally important to tackle them head-on.

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    1. Asking for a friend - is a New Unionist someone who only wants Scotland to be independent on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. My friend thinks this is a vitally important question.

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    2. Answer: They're 'New' Unionists, because they previously weren't unionists but now are. This differentiates them from 'Old' Unionists who were unionists all along. However I can confirm they remain unionists regardless of the day of the week. I'm more than happy to clarify this, and thank you for your interest.

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    3. Well thank you very much for clarifying your statement. Care to clarify further - who are Co - as in "Campbell and Co." Also do Campbell and Co concur with your statement? Have you got them to sign a written confession or have you got pictures of them worshipping a Union Jack or similar evidence? Is Cairnstoon a New Unionist? I did like his drawings. Is he part of the Co? Do you believe like your fellow anonymite above that they have been hypnotised in to being New Unionists? Is there a rogue Unionist hynopist going about hypnotising independence supporters in to being New Unionists. If true anyone could be next.
      My friend has many questions.

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    4. Is your friend a fake "Reverend", by any chance?

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    5. No. Are you the Unionist who is going around hypnotising independence supporters asks my friend as you seem so certain who are New Unionists?

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    6. Sturgeon & co are the new unionists. Vitally important to tackle them head on. Fixed that for you.

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  6. An excellent article that correctly casts doubts on the accuracy of his stats. Personally, I read that article and I had doubts myself about the accuracy of its contents when reading it. However, I believe Sturgeon is a failure to date and Campbell's stats just muddies the water and does not help the truth of the matter - namely, she is no independence leader. You do not need a load of dodgy stats to make that case. There is a bucketload of evidence to make that case. So, in effect his article undermines the case.

    What does "yoon curious" mean James?

    I like the Wings Watch logos - particularly the flying above one - articles should be peer reviewed to establish their accuracy. Nothing wrong with that but please do not go down market to cater for some of these anonymites.

    People should reflect on the fact that if there is no referendum in October next year it is more than likely Sturgeon will be in power for at least 10 years during which she has garnered votes promising a referendum after gaining multiple mandates. 8 years is failure as an independence leader/ statesperson - 10 years in power shows how great a politician she is.

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    1. "What does 'yoon curious' mean James?"

      Exactly what it says. It's a distinctly odd sort of "pro-independence website" that spends a fair chunk of its existence trying to hoodwink its readers and the wider public into thinking independence is less popular than it actually is. That sort of thing is indistinguishable from the anti-indy propaganda you might read in the Mail or the Express.

      Wings now exists in a transitional state on the road to out-and-out hostility to independence, and I think 'Yoon-curious' encapsulates that rather well.

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    2. Thanks for taking the time to explain this. It certainly is anti Sturgeon which I have no problem with. I will keep an eye out for signs of "yoon curious" in the months ahead and no doubt post whether I think that has happened.
      There are a lot of intolerant anonymites who think you must be a Sturgeon supporter to support Scottish independence.

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    3. He did once say "f*ck independence". That was probably just a symptom of one of the emotional spasms which seem to govern him, but you can see how it would make people doubt.

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  7. 10 years ago, WoS was a valuable resource IMO.
    Your attention to detail has just reminded how much less valuable it has now become. Thanks.

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  8. WGD numpty Eildh has this to say : " Roddy Dunlop is offering to defend Campbell apparently well it takes one right wing moron to defend another one. "
    This is same right wing moron who defended the Scottish Government against Salmonds Judicial Review. Oh well nasty numpty Eildh seems to be implying Sturgeon is a right wing moron. These nicophants really aren't on the ball.

    Other numpties are debating kissing unionists and shockeroony Irish Skier says he used to kiss English girls. You devil Skier. What a cad you are.

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    1. Our man of many areas of expertise and multiple nationalities is really getting in to the self ID malarkey as he is self IDing as Welsh for the duration of the World Cup. Sturgeon will be proud of him. So that's Scottish/Irish/French and now Welsh Skier.

      All that remains in the future is for Skier to self ID as a trans women and do a tour of the unisex loos in Scotland to prove that Sturgeon's selfID policy is just fine and proper.

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  9. "For example, there was binary-choice polling in 2007 which showed support for independence at 39.5% and opposition at 45%."

    Was there? Why haven't you linked to it, then?

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    1. Er, yes there was, and here's the link -

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence#Two-way_polling

      As you can see, it's taken from exactly the same Wikipedia page your hero got all his screenshots from, and the numbers are sourced.

      Gentle hint, my friend: don't take up a career in the law - your attempt at a courtroom theatric has just totally flopped. Did you really think I'd made the numbers up? What a silly boy you are.

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  10. Campbell isn't right wing ? Check out his comments on Gaelic and Hillsborough.

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