Friday, November 18, 2022

Support for pro-independence parties increases in the Linn by-election - but Labour still take the seat

First of all, the normal disclaimer that I'm taking this result from a Twitter post, so I can't 100% guarantee its accuracy.  When I've manually checked Twitter reports of local by-election results in the past, it's amazing how often there have been major discrepancies in the percentages.

Linn by-election result on first preferences (17th November 2022)

Labour 43.4% (+11.3) 
SNP 33.2% (-0.2) 
Greens 8.0% (+1.9) 
Conservatives 6.4% (-5.1) 
Liberal Democrats 5.7% (-0.6) 
Alba 1.8% (+0.5) 
SSP 0.9% (n/a) 
UKIP 0.4% (n/a) 
Freedom Alliance 0.4% (n/a)

If you do the sums, the first thing you'll notice here is that Labour have overtaken the SNP in the ward since the local elections six months ago.  But in the strange world of STV by-elections, this will still be classed as a Labour hold, not a Labour gain, because the vacancy was caused by the death of one of the ward's two Labour councillors.  The good news is that the combined total vote for pro-independence parties has increased from 40.8% in May to 43.9% yesterday - although that may be partly due to a sizeable chunk of votes for an independent candidate in May becoming freshly available.

The result is actually strikingly in line with what you would have expected from the recent Scotland-wide opinion polls.  Labour have made gains that are significant but hardly of biblical proportions.  The extra Labour voters have come to a substantial degree from the Tories and not from the SNP, whose support has held up since May - when remember they won an all-time record high share of the vote in local elections.

Linn was a particular test for my own party Alba, who were standing in a by-election for the first time ever.  Our result can be viewed in either a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty way, because we did slightly increase our share of the vote in the ward.  However, I suspect the general feeling will be one of disappointment.  A by-election removed some of the disadvantages faced by Alba in previous elections - our resources weren't stretched too thin, with activists able to pour in from across the country, and Alex Salmond was there to campaign in person.  The leadership probably hoped that would be enough to get us out of the frustrating 1-2% zone, but unfortunately that hasn't proved to be the case.  

This is merely the first in a double-header of by-elections Alba are standing in, and if we get a better result in two weeks from now, it'll be entirely reasonable to 'split the difference' and conclude that a little progress has been made.  However, taken in isolation, the Linn result supports the observation I made a few weeks ago that Alba's current coalition of support appears to be too narrowly-based and will not be sufficient to win list seats at the next Holyrood election.  There are still three-and-a-half years to go, so it's entirely possible list seats could yet be won, but that will depend on using that time to grow our support rather than contentedly flatlining in the 1-2% zone.  It looks like we've pretty much maxed out the 'furious at Nicola Sturgeon, let's destroy the SNP' vote and that we'll have to move out of our comfort zone to find the considerable extra support we need.

As I said after the local elections six months ago, the people who assume Alba will shortly cease to exist because of repeated poor electoral results are missing the point.  Defeats played a part in the demise of parties like Change UK, but that was only half of the equation - the other half was that the people involved had alternative political homes (such as the Liberal Democrats) to turn to.  Alba will continue to exist for the foreseeable future, irrespective of election outcomes, simply because we do not have an alternative home in the SNP under its intolerant current leadership.  But that doesn't mean that we should settle for mere existence without non-trivial support at the ballot box.  We can choose to actually do something with our continued existence, but achieving the elusive breakthrough will mean being brutally honest with ourselves about the fact that, as currently constituted, we're too narrow a sect.  We've been lulled into a false sense of security by the knowledge that we genuinely represent a substantial proportion of the independence movement, and we've assumed that's bound to be reflected sooner or later in a similar proportion of pro-independence votes.  But the wider pro-independence Scotland - made up of the vast swathes of people who aren't members of political parties and aren't involved in Yes groups and don't go to public meetings - is a very different universe.

Towards the end of my year on the Alba NEC, I became concerned that - paradoxical though it may seem - a sense of complacency was creeping in about the party's chances in 2026.  That was generated in part by some truly heroic assumptions about the voters who gave their third preference votes to Alba in May behind two SNP candidates.  The thought that people who don't actively hate you are bound to vote for you on the Holyrood list is seductive when you're looking for glimmers of hope, but I'm afraid political reality is a lot harsher than that for small parties.  Non-hate is not support.  We don't yet have the support we need and we're going to have to earn it.  We need to pitch our tent on the radical end of the pro-independence mainstream, with mainstream being the operative word.  That means, I would suggest, no longer pandering (albeit in a deniable way) to ethnonationalists, and massively toning down the near-homicidal rage at the SNP and senior people within it.  Putting a decisive end to the constant dark hints that we might try to sabotage a plebiscite election with a revenge mission against the SNP would be an extremely positive first step along that road.

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30 comments:

  1. Sound sense James. A strategy of being an electoral party with minimal support to work from is a hard road at best. Unless I've got it wrong Alba's strength lies in it's base of experienced and motivated activists.
    Picking up, and campaigning, on local and national issues and making the link to a renewed, independent Scotland may be a way forward. The SNP is pretty much incapable of that kind of politics so there would be no viable proindependence rival in the field.
    Specific elections that might promise some progress could be prioritised as they arose.
    A small footnote to this is that there are a few, at least, of us out here who are presently non party (mainly ex SNP) who would be attracted by this especially if the anti SNP approach was modified to working together at a local level while still voicing the shortcomings of The Sturgeon/gender politics dead end.

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  2. Hi James, a downbeat assessment from you. ALBA's share of the vote increased by 37%. Just because it is low numbers we are comparing does not change the facts of the case. I think you are the one with unrealistic expectations of ALBA's electoral performance. When the voters tell you where you are - believe them. That is where we are. But we can build on these performances. I have been active in the West Lothian Broxburn ward campaign. I'm hopeful we can progress from 1.39% in May to over 2%. That is what success looks like. It will take years to progress to the point of saving deposits at FPTP elections with 5%. I'm ready for the long haul. I know many others are too. This is a 10 to 15 year project.

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    1. If we've lowered our sights to the extent that 1.8% or 2% is now considered "success", then my downbeat assessment is entirely justified. Our vote increased last night from 1.3% to 1.8% on an extremely low turnout. We took 90 votes. To describe that as a "37% increase" looks like nothing more than highly determined straw-clutching.

      On your latter point, the last thing we should be aiming for is a 10-15 year project to "save our deposits in FPTP elections". We shouldn't even be standing in FPTP elections unless it's as part of a Yes Alliance. There is no future for this party in FPTP vote-splitting - we'll be punished heavily for it. The aim of Alba should be independence by the fastest possible route, not "saved deposits by 2037".

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    2. "When the voters tell you where you are - believe them. That is where we are."

      Indeed so. It's hard to see how you're disagreeing in any way with the thrust of my blogpost. 2% or less is exactly where we are, and that means we won't be winning list seats in 2026 if we just settle for where we are right now and say that it's good enough, which is precisely what you appear to be doing. Are you seriously suggesting it's "unrealistic" to try to grow our support in the next three and a half years to the 5-6% we need to win a decent number ofseats? Or is what you really mean that it's more important to stay within our comfort zone, rather than take the necessary steps to reach out to the new categories of voters we're going to need?

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    3. And who/what is responsible for this low vote share. Sturgeon's monstering of Salmond working with the Britnat media. That's who/what. I speak to people who used to hero worship Salmond who now see him as a monster and Sturgeon is now their great hero. Personally I never hero worship any politician that truly is for numpties.

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    4. If we end up having to go done the route of a UK GE de facto referendum then it should be a "yes alliance" with candidates standing under yes to Scottish independence on the ballot paper. If it is just SNP people will think it is just a ruse by the SNP to get more MPs and more Westminster short money.

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  3. Anon above seems to see Alba as the equivalent of the Albanian democratic underground circa 1955. "We know we won't live to see the fruits of our efforts but we're quite prepared for that."

    Admirable in a way, but not quite what people thought they were signing up for last year. (Which was supermajorities, referendum bills within a week, etc, etc. Jam today, not in a hundred years.)

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    1. Alba are doing far less well than any Albanian political parties

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    2. Rubbish. For example, Nisma Thurje took only 0.65% of the vote in the 2021 Albanian general election.

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  4. Hello, James. I don't think you reported on the recent by-election in Buckie. Apologies in advance if you did.

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    1. No, I didn't, I must have been preoccupied with other things at the time. A good result for the SNP, although given the circumstances that's perhaps not surprising - you'd expect them to prosper in localities where the Tories are the main opponent, but run into more problems where they're up against Labour.

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  5. If those percentages are accurate, the combined pro-indy share of the vote is slightly higher than Labour's. That shows the importance of tactical voting and not putting up spoiler candidates when it comes to an election under First Past the Post rules.

    43.9% versus 43.4%. Half of one percent.

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  6. James, you have very kindly published my posts highlighting how a UK GE de facto referendum is the worst franchise for a yes vote. Not one person, including yourself, have said I am wrong but if the UK court says no or no decision that is the route the SNP are expecting to take us. Happy with making it difficult to actually win a vote as long as we are doing what Sturgeon wants seems to be the prevailing attitude. Anyone consider that perhaps Sturgeon is sabotaging a yes vote by even considering this route or are we just happy that she might actually do something even if it stacks the deck against a yes vote?

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    1. You're lack of understanding transcends your stupidity

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    2. Another numpty one liner. Pray tell me what I am missing. Or is an abusive one liner the height of your intellect.

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    3. You are missing a more extended vocabulary of abusive terms. 'Numpty' is so yesterday.

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    4. Numpty - Scotlands favourite word according to a poll. The term implies general idiocy, silly or stupid. If you are a Britnat perhaps you would prefer "pillock" - A stupid or annoying person, a simpleton or a fool. Take your pick if you cannae back up your words with facts/arguments/a measure of reason etc etc. Both numpty and pillock are generally recognised as mild terms and you haven't demonstrated anything that suggest that both are not appropriate to describe you.

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  7. Hi James, just to say please keep speaking out against Rev Stu. You're one of the few people in a position to do it, and it's desperately needed. Most of the independence movement is behind you on this one, and all of the movement should be.

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  8. Great to see this site's fundraiser has jumped so much higher since the last time I checked it. The thinking part of the movement is with you, even if sadly there are other parts!

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  9. The annoying thing about the gathering at the top of Buchanan st, Glasgow on Wed ( re the UK court decision ) 5-7pm is the fact that the statue of Dewar is there. The guy who agreed with Blair to move Scotlands sea border diagonally northwards to give England a false claim to some of Scotland's oil fields.

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  10. The Reverend Stuart Campbell and his Mormon-style cult disciples are looking increasingly irrational. Like any good cult, he not only gets their total unthinking obedience, he also empties their bank balances and it makes them happy.

    Please shut up, "Reverend", you are making yourself look stupid, but you also need to let these people get back to their lives.

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    1. Talking about cults and emptying bank balances the big dug seems to be slowly slowly moving his following towards accepting the reality that Scotland is treated like a colony by Westminster. But he still refers to Scottish democracy being in danger or damaged etc etc. The true reality is that Scotland has NEVER had democracy in its entire existence. Perhaps the big dug is on a journey. His current article entitled " Austerity and colonialist paternalism: what the Tories do for us." The big mistake in this heading is that it may be the Tories at present but Labour and LibDems are just the same. They just take turns at being our colonial masters.

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  11. WGD numpty James highlights the confusion so many have about sovereignty and what it is. James says Westminster is currently sovereign but in an independent Scotland the people will be sovereign as will the Scottish parliament. Wrong at present and wrong in an independent Scotland.

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  12. It is truly amazing how little people have to say on this blog about Wednesdays upcoming UK Supreme Court announcement. Is it because more people have realised that Sturgeon has appointed a Lord Advocate who does not think the Scottish Parliament can legally hold a referendum. This person is part of a Scottish government which gains most of its votes by putting in its manifesto that it will hold an independence referendum. Go figure that one out Sturgeonites.

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  13. It is always good to see a Tory MP get a right skewering and Martin Geizler certainly did that to Lamont this morning. What a complete car crash of an interview by one of the U.K. governments men in Scotland.

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  14. Crikey, Mike Russell says we must defend ourselves against Unionist lies. Some people may think better late than never but I say it has taken you all this time to think that rebutting all the lies by the Britnats might be a good idea. What a numpty. What happened to the SNP's rebuttal unit? No money left from the referendum fund - all spent on new chairs? Useless people.

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  15. Sturgeon must surely be a big supporter of the FIFA president Infantino as he had a right good go at doing some self iD yesterday. It's long overdue that Sturgeon did some self ID as well - she could try self ID as a proper independence leader.

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  16. Why don't you self ID as the wee Tory you are

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    1. Anonymite I am neither wee nor a Tory but you clearly are a numpty. The only question is whether you are a bog standard (with the emphasis on bog) numpty or a WGD numpty.

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