Monday, October 24, 2022

A reminder of why Sunak's coronation is probably the best available outcome for the independence cause

It was slightly comical and/or grotesque last night to see so many Labour people on Twitter queuing up to celebrate - literally celebrate - Rishi Sunak's likely coronation as Prime Minister.  They apparently thought the SNP would be gutted by the fact that we're not getting the return of Boris Johnson.  Well, I don't know what the SNP leadership are privately thinking, but as I've been saying for days, the political realities have changed out of all recognition during Liz Truss' ultra-brief tenure and it is simply no longer the case that Johnson is/was the ideal Tory leader for the independence cause.  What previously made him such an asset was that he gave the Tories popularity in England but left them deeply unpopular in Scotland - thus meaning voters could see that independence was the only way out.  Sunak is now our best hope for replicating that former balance, and these Labour armchair commentators may soon think they should have been careful what they wished for.

However objectionable he may be for a variety of reasons (personally I'll never forgive his ideologically-driven hostility to anti-Covid measures), Sunak is the only leading Tory who is regarded as a credible figure by voters in England, particularly on economic matters. He is thus the only person who might just about be able to drag his party back into the game south of the border.  There's far from any guarantee that he'll do that - it may be a task beyond the capabilities of anyone.  But if he does, Labour in Scotland may no longer be able to ride on the coat-tails of their party's momentum in England, and the prospects for a plebiscite election may look pretty decent.

But is the flipside of the Sunak effect in England that we must also accept he's the most likely person to revive Scottish Tory fortunes and win them seats?  I'd have been far more worried about that if he'd won the last leadership contest a few weeks ago.  In the intervening period, the Tory brand in Scotland has been tarnished to the point where the party is now loathed as much as it was in the late 1980s and 1990s.  Even a vaguely respected leader will only be able to limit the damage in Scotland at the next election - any notion of getting back to 2017 levels of support is now pure fantasy.  So that's what I mean when I say Sunak is best placed to get us back to the optimum situation of Tory popularity in England and Tory unpopularity in Scotland.  If his relative charisma and relative competence ends up saving his party two or three Scottish seats, that's a fairly marginal downside in the overall scheme of things.

Furthermore, if Johnson had won, an early general election could have been on the cards, due to Tories defecting or resigning the whip.  That would have given the SNP leadership an excuse to back off from the plebiscite election plan and the independence cause could have been left to go into drift after any defeat at the Supreme Court.  They will now have no such excuse, because the likelihood is that the election will be held in 2024, well after the Supreme Court ruling.  (In spite of what some people would have you believe, there is essentially no chance of the election being as late as 2025, because no Prime Minister voluntarily holds a national vote in January.  The latest likely date in the real world is October 2024.)

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8 comments:

  1. On the other hand, if the Tories do recover enough to make the GE competitive, doesn't that give Scottish Labour ammunition to take anti-Tory votes back from the SNP which an obvious landslide for Labour in England would not?

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    Replies
    1. Keaton, you have identified another possible reason why using a UK GE as a de facto referendum is far from the best option. If Sturgeon hasn't got the guts to call a referendum then she shouldn't have been promising one in her manifestos. Just where did she say before the May 2021 Scottish election that she was going to ask the U.K. Court for permission. Where did she say in the manifesto that she might use a UK GE as a de facto referendum. People were tricked in to voting SNP for Indyref2.

      Use a Scottish Parliament election as a de facto referendum if the UK court says no or no decision.

      Delete
  2. Did Sturgeon really say the only way to deal with the psycho drama going on in the Conservative party was a general election? No it isn't - Scottish independence is the true and long lasting way of dealing with the Tories.
    The last time Sturgeon and Blowhard called for a UK GE they helped change a divided, broken UK Parliament in to a Tory 80 seat majority and helped Johnston get Brexit done. Well done Sturgeon and Blackford - they helped take Scotland out of the EU. Just whose side are they on.

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  3. Fans of the mad liar Irish/Scottish/French Skier who claims to be an expert on so many many things may not want to read any further.

    Poor old saddo Skier still hasn't updated his website page since Jan 2022. His headline article is some pathetic detective story ( nasty hit job) about Tasmina of the Alba party's dress and shoes. I well remember the WGD numpties giving this story from the Daily Record great big loving licks as they stuck the boot in to Salmond about him buying a pair of £600 shoes. It was of course nonsense and lies as the Daily Redcoat has about much credibility re honesty as Boris Johnson, Express, Mail etc but the WGD numpties didn't care. They were happy to believe a Britnat paper when it suited their prejudices. The WGD numpties also believed the crap fed to the Britnat Daily Redcoat editor from N.Ireland Davy Clegg about Salmond's persecution.

    Anyway Skier claimed he donated money to the Alba Party and got Xmas cards from Tasmina and Salmond and using his great powers of deduction he worked out they were taken in London but shock horror they were actually near Mi5/6 offices - hint hint. What a tosser. No wonder there is no great clamour in the borders or indeed anywhere for him to give them more of his outstanding (🤣🤣🤣) articles.

    If you think I am being overly unkind to Skier he recently said he didn't care what people on SGP said about him. So fill your boots😀. As he is happy to leave all that nonsense about Salmond and Tasmina on his blog page all year no one should feel any guilt. I never have.

    You are a prize numpty Skier. You claim you gave money to Alba ( does the big dug and wee doggers know about this) got a couple of Xmas cards as a thank you and then claimed the pictures were taken in London ( shock horror) and that is just such a terrible thing according to Skiers article. He adds in some pics from the Daily Redcoat as well. Top independence blogger he ain't. You would think his independence ski slope chart would be the main feature of his blog.

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    1. "Skier claimed he donated money to the Alba Party"

      Blatant act of transphobia. Doubtless the WGD moderators will now ban him.

      Delete
    2. James, nice one😂. I forgot about that aspect.

      I hope someone from the SNP investigates his admitted financial support for Alba. Perhaps it was the same £20 he wanted back from you. Let's look at this - he wanted that money back from you because of your support for Alba but claims he gave money to Alba. Does Skier ever make any sense?

      Delete
  4. The UK Supreme Court could make one of 3 possible judgements.

    1. LEGAL

    1.1 Sturgeon presses ahead with referendum and it takes place in October next year.
    1.2 Sturgeon presses ahead with referendum and Sunak passes a law in Westminster to make it illegal.

    2. NO DECISION.

    Back to where we were in June 2022. Sturgeon does what? I'm not aware she has expressed an opinion in her June 2022 "plan" if this is the judgement. The Keatings judgement.
    2.1 Sturgeon presses ahead with the referendum in October next year.
    2.1.1 A legal challenge takes it back to the UK Supreme Court.
    2.2 Sturgeon decides to go for a UK GE de facto referendum.

    3. NOT LEGAL.

    3.1 Sturgeon presses ahead with UK GE de facto referendum.
    3.2 Sunak (or whoever is PM) passes a law to have a de facto referendum using an election made illegal. Britnats in Scotland boycott the election. The SNP get all the MPs but is declared illegal as a vote for independence. Sturgeon is happy and declares one more mandate for Indyref2 is necessary at next Scottish Parliament election. Numpties go yippee I love carrot soup.

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  5. There hasn't been an SNP leadership contest for 18 years. The 2014 one only had one candidate, and that's not a contest.

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