Monday, November 1, 2021

SCOT GOES POP / PANELBASE POLL: Shortages of goods and petrol are strengthening the case for independence

Although the new Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll is predominantly about GRA reform and related matters, I also added voting intention questions, and three supplementary questions on political matters - two of which you've already seen, and which produced astonishingly good results from the point of view of the pro-independence movement. The third question is a little different, because it's produced a good, solid result, but not on the same dramatic scale of the other two. It may be worth pondering why that's the case. 

Do you think the recent shortages of goods and petrol strengthen or weaken the case for Scotland to become an independent country and to then seek to restore freedom of movement with the countries of the European Union? 

Strengthen the case: 35% 
Weaken the case: 22% 
Make no difference: 32% 

That's a roughly 3-2 margin for 'strengthen' over 'weaken', and importantly a bigger percentage of No voters from 2014 say 'strengthen' (16%) than Yes voters who say 'weaken' (9%). There's also a 34% to 16% lead for 'strengthen' among those who didn't vote in 2014. That suggests the shortages may be shifting the dial to at least a modest extent, or will have the potential to do so. 

It may seem odd that 22% of respondents hold the apparently perverse belief that the shortages have somehow weakened the case for independence and freedom of movement, but there are a couple of possible explanations for that. Firstly, the BBC have been utterly determined to ensure that it occurs to as few people as possible that Brexit may actually be to blame for the difficulties the UK has been facing recently. The supply problems have been presented as having multi-faceted causes which are difficult to pin down, and of course some people are all too eager to believe that we need London's "broad shoulders" to protect helpless Scotland from complex, multi-faceted problems. But probably a bigger factor is that some people are extremely partisan in their constitutional preferences and would just automatically say that any political event, no matter what it is, has weakened the case for independence. Boris Johnson resuming atmospheric nuclear testing in Prestonpans town centre? Oh, that just means we need London rule even more, of course it does. The fact that No voters from 2014 say, by a 34% to 16% margin, that the shortages weaken the case for the restoration of freedom of movement in an independent Scotland...well, it's possible they may truly believe that deep down, but ah hae ma doots. 

So for that reason, I'd suggest the people who chose the 'weaken' option are of less concern than the roughly one-third of the sample, including 43% of No voters from 2014 and even 23% of Yes voters, who think the shortages make no difference to the case for independence. Those people presumably mean what they say - but why? We can blame the BBC, but I think the SNP may need to consider whether they've been doing enough to join the dots in people's minds about the effect of Brexit on daily life, and how independence can resolve many of the problems. It could be that pushing the date of the independence referendum ever backwards has led the SNP to soft-pedal a little on the impact of Brexit - ie. if they presented our departure from the EU as an immediate and ongoing crisis, they know that people would be asking them why they aren't seeking a solution with considerably more urgency.

SCOT GOES POP POLLING FUNDRAISER: I hope you'll bear with me as I continue to heavily promote the new fundraiser, but as I've explained a few times, the crowdfunding for this current poll did not meet the full amount required, and I'm having to cover the shortfall with my own money.  So running any future Scot Goes Pop polling - on independence or other Scottish political issues - will be pretty much impossible unless we reach the £6500 target figure, or at least get very close to it.  At present we're more than 40% of the way towards the target, so a million thanks to everyone who has made donations so far.  I know times are really tough at the moment, but as I noted the other day, thousands of people read Scot Goes Pop every week, and if just 10% of those people were to donate just £10, the target figure would be reached straight away.  Of course some people can't donate for very good reasons, but one really helpful thing you can do is to share the fundraiser page and spread the word with your friends and family.

If you'd like to donate, please click HERE, or to read more about why it's so important for the pro-independence movement to occasionally crowdfund our own polls, click HERE.

17 comments:

  1. 'Those people presumably mean what they say - but why?' --- I'd like to suggest that one element is that many people --?most people -- continue to think of 'indenpendence' as a hypothetical, pub-discussion type issue, rather than as a real element of where we collectively go from here.

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  2. Have you seen the Express today? First day of Cop their front page is a spread of wood and plastics somehow suddenly appearing in the Clyde under the banner of "Sturgeon's Shame". If not deliberately dumped, how do they make it out that an operational failure is the fault of the FM? Bit like blaming Johnson for the human excrement gushing into English rivers for the utter failure of England's privatisation of their water supplies.

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  3. The two main political camps in Scotland now appear to be:

    1. Britnats/Unionists who no matter how badly Westminster treats Scotland it makes no difference to their support for being ruled by Westminster.

    2. SNP supporters who, no matter how much Sturgeon carries out despicable actions, spends her time on self promotion and ignores Scottish independence, they remain loyal to her.

    The end result of this is the ongoing rule by Westminster for the foreseeable future. Scotland may not be too poor and not too wee but a helluva lot of it's people are truly stupid.

    What a sorry state of affairs.

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    1. Commentateur / PersonneNovember 2, 2021 at 6:14 PM

      Another distinct disfunctional group is the SNP leadership ultras who spend all their time either obsessively attacking the "Abla party" or back-slapping each other through the medium of smug, incomprehensible in-jokes. But to be fair, that's a miniscule group in electoral terms that makes some noise on social media and has no impact on actual politics.

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  4. It might be that when you thought there was a 100% case for independence in 2014 (or before), then you'd opt for "no difference".

    Not a good choice obviously from a political point of view, but I'd be tempted from a point of logic.

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  5. So we are to suffer for how many years before Saint Nick decides we are worthy of a vote to decide our fate?
    I see the Republican (booo!) candidate has wiped the floor with his Democrat (booo!) opponent. He turned a large deficit into a thumping majority after weaponising GRA reform, woke capture of schools and the anger of people who finally see what has been kept hidden.
    There may be a lesson there for Scottish politics, but I fear some are too far gone to learn it.

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  6. Some of the Micawbers on WGD are punting the line that it is best to delay an independence referendum because things will get worse due to Brexit kicking in really hard in the future. This sort of line has been punted for many many years now as excuses for SNP inaction. There is of course the possibility if things do get worse some voters may go the other way and think we do not want more problems from independence things are bad enough at present. Alternatively, things re Brexit may get better.

    Other numpties repeat the mantra we don't just want to hold a referendum we want to win it but express absolutely no concern at the SNP leaderships total unpreparedness or desire to convince voters of the need for independence. Most of the elected SNP personnel just get on with the day job as good devolutionalists should do. As long as the Britnats control the media message there will never be a guaranteed referendum win.

    The SNP comment published recently that Scotland is a nation in waiting couldn't be more true. Waiting for 314 years now and under this SNP leadership we will be waiting a long long time more. Sturgeon will never deliver independence and if the Macbeths take over from her some time in the future then they will not either.

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    1. Does anything show up the pathetic Sturgeon more than her posing for selfies with the 'right on' brigade outside the conference while the adults inside ignore her? And all this happening in her own back yard! Still, she should be used to empty posturing by now, she's been doing it on independence for seven years. The Duggers all know nothing is going to happen, they're just getting their excuses in early. Incidentally, it's sad to see how, with the demise of Wings, James' blog seems to have become the new focus for their hatred. The baleful influence of Skier by any chance? At least a dissenting voice can get a hearing on this site - chance would be a fine thing on the Dug.

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    2. "James' blog seems to have become the new focus for their hatred"

      Really? Is this on the comments section of WGD? I remain very much a moderate compared to Stuart, I don't want to burn the house down, even though I'm in Alba I accept that the SNP will have to play the leading role in bringing about independence if it's to happen in anything like the foreseeable future. But it seems that those driven by blind faith in the SNP leadership don't really do nuance.

      And so much for the supposed instruction to the WGD moderators that I wasn't to be mentioned - although maybe that was lifted after I refused to be browbeaten.

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    3. The way it goes is that the mad liar Skier does not mention you by name but anyone can see he is referring to you and your articles. Others btl just come out and refer to you by name.

      According to the doggers if you do not bow before Sturgeon ( the leader who is all knowing and has a secret plan ) then you are a Unionist. Yep some of the numpties still believe a secret plan will suddenly be unveiled that will deliver Scotland from Egypt oops UK. Moses she ain't.

      "........ that the SNP will have to play the leading role in bringing about independence." Usually the person in the leading role wants to be the leading person. I see no sign of this from the SNP/Sturgeon. So how do you think this will happen James?

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    4. Meanwhile in the land of the doggers and the home of the numpty they are going orgasmic over a couple of pictures of Sturgeon at COP26. Sad sad people.

      When old numpty Old Pete suggests now would be a good time to announce the date for the referendum in front of the world's leaders the mad rabid doggers pounce on him and tell him now is not the time. But it will be soon says Indyref2yespleasenicola. Doggers may want independence for Scotland but independent thought, not authorised by the great leader, must be stamped on immediately.

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    5. Update: the doggers are now multi-orgasmic due to Biden giving Sturgeon a gift. Pet dogs are easily pleased.

      Did Biden say he would support Scottish independence unlike his old mate/boss Obama in 2014? Now that would be something to get excited about.

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    6. Update: the old dog Old Pete fights back in a wimpy kind of way and says - " Now is not the time that started a few years ago now. When will be the time? Time is starting to pass quickly for me, I can't wait forever and a day. Still happy to accept I might be very keen and a bit anxious that our chance might be slipping away."

      Aye even old doggers like Old Pete are starting to realise all is not right with the SNP leadership and getting restless.

      Sturgeon no doubt will be posted missing from the AUOB march on Saturday. As it has not been approved by Sturgeon the numpties on WGD just ignore it. Pet dogs the lot of them.

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    7. Update: according to WGD numpties mad liar Skier, Grizebard and nasty Dr Jim you are not a real independence supporter if you are not going orgasmic about Sturgeon getting a gift from Biden. This is what Sturgeon has brought the SNP down to. SNP numpties interpretating this simple act as international support for independence. Biden probably asked Sturgeon I thought you were having your referendum in 2017. What happened?

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  7. Why are we no oot in Glasgow showing the flag , demanding Indy?

    stop girning , get aff yer knees!

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    1. I take it you will be attending the AUOB march this Saturday 6/11/21 in Glasgow.

      I know I will. Or are you the one on your knees?

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  8. When Blackford kept saying "Scotland will not be dragged out of the EU against it's will." he obviously kept getting his words all mixed up and what he meant to say was -

    "The SNP will not be dragged out of Westminster by the people of Scotland against it's will."

    Pension Pete says "that's more like it."

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