Wednesday, September 22, 2021

No matter how much time passes, we always seem to be "just one more election victory away" from holding an independence referendum

Do you remember back in 2018 or early 2019, when the bulk of us in the independence movement were still giving the SNP leadership the benefit of the doubt in relation to their assurances that an independence referendum had merely been delayed slightly and would still take place before Brexit? Journalists and certain academics used to treat us as hopelessly naive, and would say that "everyone knows privately" ("everyone" being code for the political elite and their journalistic chums) that talk of a referendum in the foreseeable future was just for show, and that the real battle to decide whether a referendum took place would come in the form of the 2021 Holyrood election.

Now, it's easy to say in retrospect that those people were right about our naivety in taking the SNP leadership at their word, but here's the thing: if they had also been right about the 2021 election being the true moment of reckoning, they would now be saying "the SNP won decisively, it's over, a referendum is happening".  But they're not doing that, are they?  Take a look at this quote from a new newspaper article (it appears to be from The Times) which is suddenly talking about the 2024 Westminster general election in exactly the same way that the 2021 Holyrood election was previously talked about - as the decisive electoral event.

"The next general election is seen as key to the prospects of a second referendum.  If the SNP increases its number of MPs, which at present stands at 45...further pressure would be placed on the prime minister to agree to re-run the 2014 vote."

Are you beginning to see how this works?  Every time an election billed as "the big one" takes place, it magically turns out afterwards not to have been particularly important after all, but oh my God, the next election, just you wait, that'll be the one to make civilisations tremble.  

If by some miracle we actually improve on the 81% of Scottish seats we won in the 2019 general election - a ridiculously tough target that we shouldn't be setting for ourselves, and that nobody should be setting for us if they have a democratic bone in their body - we'll then be told that the SNP need to win an overall majority in the 2026 Holyrood election, and Boris Johnson will be sure to buckle under the pressure at that point.  And then if the SNP win that majority, hey presto, it'll turn out that they also need to make yet more gains in the 2029 Westminster election - which by that point may mean winning more constituencies than actually exist.

I've no idea if this is an intentional con-trick on the part of the SNP leadership to keep us distracted while they get on with staying in power and delivering the stuff they really care about (like GRA reform), or whether it's a sign that they lack confidence in themselves and are too nervous to bring matters to a head.  But either way, we need to break out of this endless cycle of passivity.  We have an immaculate mandate to hold a referendum, and we must use that mandate before the next general election even takes place.  It's as simple as that.

45 comments:

  1. If we do actually end up with a GE before a referendum I think I'd actually vote for Alba, something I never thought I'd do. But general elections are something of a free hit and the SNP are taking the piss out of all of us.

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  2. When the SNP/WGD numpties die they can have the consolation of putting on their headstones

    "BOTH VOTES SNP"

    because due to their support of Sturgeon it won't be in an independent Scotland.

    "BOTH VOTES SNP"

    The mark of the numpty tribe.

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  3. I voted SNP for the last time in May. There's no point to them any more, and if they think they can play this game, they must have forgotten how suddenly we stopped voting in Labour!

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  4. Given the legislative process, it is not possible to hold a scheduled referendum without a snap election being able to interrupt it. The Prime Wanker can wake up one day, says "go" and about six weeks later, we're at that ballot box - weeks or months before the referendum rolls around.

    There are basically two bad options to handle this: hold a referendum anyway and prepare for a snap election to interrupt it or hold it within a year of that election when it's politically inconceivable for even Johnson to call another one so soon.

    I favour the first of those as the "less bad" option but fighting a snap election and a major referendum in the same year will strain the SNP. They can't just abandon that election and hope its results doesn't derail the referendum's outcome. Unfortunately, Johnson can bluff and delay calling that election all the way to 2024 at which point the referendum gets held in 2025.

    Ideally, that useless bastard will call his snap election next year and that keeps us on schedule for 2023. We should be so lucky...

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    1. If only we had a 600,000 pound campaign fund which had been ring fenced to help with the costs of a referundum...

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    2. Alan D

      " keeps us on schedule for 2023" where is this schedule hiding? I didn't see it attached to the 11 point plan.

      Michelle Thomson SNP MSP says there will be no referendum in 2023. Perhaps you can also show her this schedule.

      Michelle Thomson also says that Johnson will never let us go and because of Scotland's resources he would be a numpty to let us go. But hey Sturgeon and Kavanagh say Johnson will grant a sect 30 and there will be a referendum and we will be independent so everything is just fine. In the meantime their bank accounts grow larger while people will freeze to death this winter in Scotland.

      Oh and Thomson also thinks we should concentrate on the next General Election.

      The real numpties are those who keep supporting Sturgeon and her crooked gang. If you are supporting Sturgeon you are against Scottish independence.

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    3. As if Johnson is going to schedule an election on the basis of Scottish politics. He doesn’t care. Well he probably cares a bit about keeping Scotland. But he cares a lot more about staying in power. He’ll call an election when he thinks he can win it. Scotland is the least of his concerns.

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    4. If there were an Indy ref anytime before 2024 (which there won't)the SNP wouldn't have a penny with which to fight it. Their profligate behaviour has created a monster party with an insatiable appetite for money. They are literally broke and kept on life support by Westminster MPs 'Short Money'.

      I won't and I can't see many other people donating to a new 'Indy Ref Fighting Fund'. The memories of the last fund haven't gone.

      Sturgeon's work of destroying the Indy Movement has gone well, and I'm sure her puppet master's will be pleased with her and her husbands efforts.

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  5. Given the Orwellian times in which we live, indyref2 is the equivalent of the perpetual war of Nineteen Eighty-Four. The SNP says "referendum soon" and the Tories "no referendum if you vote for us". It keeps everyone pointing at each other and distracts attention from what the government is really doing, which, in the SNP's case, is trying to redefine reality and destroy our basic freedoms so Nicola Sturgeon can win a place for the Scottish Government in Stonewall's top hundred employers list.

    That woman, her narcissism, and her groupthinking cabinet all need to go. What has she achieved in office since she took the top job in 2014? I can't think of a single thing. The SNP's MPs are worse than the Feeble Fifty (notable exceptions being Joanna Cherry, Philippa Whitford, and Angus Brendan Macneil), with the MSP contingent apparently even lower in quality. None of them are able to say no to Sturgeon.

    Scotland needs to wake up or we'll never regain our independence.

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  6. I have voted SNP even though there have been some major policies I have disagreed with but the last election was their last chance. Never mind independence getting rid of jury trials would be beyond the pale for me. They will not get my vote the next time unless they make the next election a plebiscite on independence.

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  7. Salmond said the dream will never die. Sturgeon and her gang are giving it a right good kicking at present and will soon be moving in for the kill.

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  8. I think we have become too obsessed about holding a pre-independence referendum - its time we got out of that box for 2 main reasons. First is that Westminster can decide to call a UK general election and disrupt the process, second Westminster can employ yet another dirty tricks/media campaign to undermine any YES campaign. The one thing that Westminster cannot control yet (but watch them try) is the fact that Scotland's people are sovereign in Scotland. Not "The crown in parliament" whatever that means. Sovereignty of the Scottish people enables a number of routes to independence, be it a plebiscatory election or a simple mandate to withdraw from the treaty of union or some other route. This is an idea whose time has come, forget referendums, act like a sovereign nation and thus become a sovereign nation.

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  9. Spot on, James. The people of Scotland keep voting SNP and the SNP keeps ignoring them. Heart-breaking.

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  10. No point in voting SNP any longer. Cowardice and treason are rampant in that party and it breaks my heart to say that. It is a party full of Agents of the Brit State now. Throw in the rabid man hating on top of it and they are never getting my vote again under any circumstances. I no longer believe that they will call a Referendum. There is no trust left.

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  11. I have been an SNP voter for over 40 years (although nearly went the Scottish Labour Party with Jim Sillars - happily didn’t!) BUT in all conscience simply will be unable to maintain my allegiance to the party if it does not deliver an independence referendum within the next two years.

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  12. Even before I realised Sturgeon had absolutely no intention of forcing Indyref2, I wondered why the SNP (back then the ALBA alternative did not exist) wasn't focussing on the alternative.

    This was Thatcher's statement that electing a majority of pro-Independence MP)s to Westminster would be grounds for Scottish Independence.

    Since the Sturgeon National Party insists, we can only have a referendum with the say-so of Westminster, why don't they fight the enxt Westminster election on the basis of - a majority of pro-INdependence Scottish Mps is the basis for Indyref2?

    Call the Unionists' bluff.

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    1. That's probably the only option left, though democratically the requirement would have to be >50% of the vote for independence parties. The SNP could scrape a majority of MPs even if ~65% of the turnout was for pro-Union parties, which wouldn't be much of a mandate.

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    2. keaton - Fair point about a plus-50% of the overall vote.

      However, Thatcher only specified over 50% of the seats, so, that would surely be a cause for another referendum.

      The Unionists have become very-good at using "once in a generation," it would be extremely-difficult for any Tory to go against the word of the Blessed Margaret.

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    3. Ah, I misunderstood your point. The quote attributed to Thatcher is that a Scottish majority of "nationalist MPs" would constitute a mandate for independence itself. Assuming she actually said it (is there evidence that she did outside of memes?), it's obviously nonsense and while contradicting her might be embarrassing for her political heirs, they're not going to facilitate the breakup of the Union just to save a bit of face.

      A mandate for a referendum is a different story; the SNP have already cleared the hurdle you describe (arguably multiple times), so there's no need for another election. The country has voted for a manifesto which promised to allow them to "choose Scotland's future in an Independence Referendum", and the government is obligated to implement that in this parliament.

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    4. Keaton - " the government is obligated to implement that in this parliament."

      A very naive comment.

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    5. Why? I'm not saying they will do it, just that they're obligated to. So another election victory wouldn't add anything.

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    6. Keaton - I never said you said they will do it. They are not obligated to do anything. It's just a politicians promise. Politicians will always find excuses for not carrying out a promise whether it is in a manifesto or elsewhere. There is no binding legal obligation. The only sanction is voters not voting for them at the next election. But numpties keep on falling for Sturgeons promises. So sorry it is a naive comment.

      I agree that another election victory (just like all the other mandates for a referendum) wouldn't add anything.

      Sturgeon is just using independence supporters to keep her and her gang in power.

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    7. They're morally obligated to hold a referendum. If you don't think that's the case, I'm not sure why you keep complaining that they don't.

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    8. Keaton - morals and Sturgeon - now this is getting silly. Angus Robertson and morals now this is getting silly. I could go on but I think my point is made.

      I refer you to my previous posts where I said on multiple occasions I favoured using the May 2021 election as a vote for independence.

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  13. THE FORTHCOMING AUOB EDINBURGH MARCH

    If any SNP/ WGD numpties turn up they can chant - what do we want - independence - when do we want it - when Nicola tells us.

    Others can chant - Sturgeon fuck right off. When do we want it - now.

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    1. Anyone see any SNP flags at this march. Has Sturgeon passed the word round that attendance at an AUOB march means excommunication from the cult.
      Any SNP MPs or MSPs attending.

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  14. I am f*cking raging. With one day to go, the AUOB march has been forced on to a totally crap route (Galloping Glen) by the SNP/Labour city council. WTAF??

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  15. Meanwhile in the land of the WGD numpties and the home of the dogger not one word about the AUOB independence march in Edinburgh. Nothing.

    Now we expect the doggers to blank anything remotely critical of Sturgeon e.g. the fact that Sturgeon promised a low cost/non profit energy company years ago, the members voted for it at their recent conference and all SNP MSPs then voted against it in Holyrood. That is standard practice for the doggers - avert your eyes and/or stick your head in the sand.

    It now appears independence marches are getting the AVERT YOUR EYES treatment from the doggers.

    Make no mistake WGD is just a party political broadcast for the SNP and Sturgeon. Independence supporters that are not members don't exist for the doggers. Independence is secondary to the party for the doggers. Sturgeon and the doggers are the main obstacle to independence not Dross.

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    1. Can you help share with us the AUOB message today, were there any speeches, what did they say?

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    2. I would never have heard of the AUOB march if it hadn't been for all the pre-publicity on this site. Thanks

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    3. Is there any report on this, anywhere?

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    4. Independence Tv for live streaming of the march and future marches

      YouTube Independence Live AUOB Edinburgh 25 September 2021

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  16. THE DAY INDEPENDENCE DIED

    14th November 2014. We just didn't know it at the time.

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    1. Once Sturgeon and her gang are gone - Scottish Independence The Resurrection will be the order of the day and that depends on how long it takes for the numpties to wake up. Sadly for some of them that will be never as they will be deid.

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  17. WGD Numpty Quote of The Week

    Capella comes up with this bit of wishful thinking.

    "I think the Scottish Government is maybe developing Prestonpans now."

    She could have said she THINKS the Scottish Government is MAYBE developing plans for Scottish independence as well. Unbelievable levels of self delusion and wishful thinking by Capella.

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  18. Campbell in his farewell article references a couple of pet tame bloggers making a lucrative living out of the "independence industry" but doesn't name them. Just who could they be? Kavanagh most certainly. The other? - a small man? or a man from North Lanarkshire? Methinks it is the small man.

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    1. You've lost me. I'm from North Lanarkshire, but who's the small man?

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    2. Oh, I see. Small by name, you mean.

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    3. I must admit I will miss Wings. I didn't always agree with SC's views but he was right more often than wrong and was the first to warn us of the direction of travel of the SNP under Sturgeon. I didn't even mind his abrasive approach to those who disagreed with him, although admittedly I was never on the receiving end of one of his attacks as James was.

      His departure from the blogging scene means we have lost the biggest beast to counter the fawning sycophants on WGD and Bella but the drift away from Sturgeon will continue and only gather strength as time passes without delivery of indyref2. Even the 'Duggers' will have to emerge blinking into the light of reality eventually as so many have done before them. Rev Stu's contribution to the indy cause will live long after those (if there are any) of Mike Small and Paul Kavanagh are forgotten.
      P.S. IFS, I enjoy your reports from WGD but I don't think they are all numpties. There are some genuine, if misguided, people there btl. Skier is quite mad of course but seems happy now the Greens are on board - that dream of urinating next to a real live woman is only a heartbeat away! - and Dr.Jim seems a particularly nasty individual but, for the most part, their only 'crime' is their blind faith in the Dear Leader which PK actively encourages as a means of monetising that part of the Indy 'marketplace'.
      P.P.S. Skier's latest epistle mentions his French wife, his Irishness and his residency in the south of Scotland. Skier bingo is alive and well - he really is the Dug's b****cks!!!





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  19. Felix, Campbell was the first to warn in print about Sturgeon but at the time I thought he went too early as he could provide no evidence for his Sturgeon The Betrayer article. There is NOW plenty of evidence so no apologises from me for calling people numpties. My main ire is for Kavanagh who I know is duping the numpties. He may justify it to himself by saying he is trying to keep the independence movement together but he is just lying to himself and to his numpties. I don't doubt that the numpties want independence (well other than a few Sturgeon propagandists) but that doesn't mean they are not numpties.

    The numpties need to remember that (apart from a very very small number of individuals who support independence ) ALL of us have been taken in at some point in time by Sturgeon. It's getting to the stage soon that only Sturgeon propagandists and the mentally retarded will still believe Sturgeon will deliver independence.

    James, the fact that Campbell did not say three bloggers suggests in his own way Campbell is not so cross with you now. Probably not something you are concerned about though.

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  20. Dr Jim has posted on WGD that Stuart Campbell “doesn’t even live in Scotland “. I have replied asking what on earth has that got to do with campaigning for independence as Dr Jim appears to be excluding everyone who doesn’t reside in Scotland from the campaign for Independence. I’m addition they have published my email address although that may be my fault as I’m a newbie at commenting. Meanwhile I await the pile on.

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  21. Update: Dr Jim also referred to people who are unhappy with the SNP under the current leadership are unionist trolls. I objected to this (stating I have no confidence etc.) and responses were I was on the wrong site etc. So much for reasoned debate and being able to disagree with each other. For the avoidance of doubt this is not intended to be a criticism of Mr Kavanagh but merely a statement of what has happened to me in today’s Scotland.

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    1. WGD has fast become the most intolerant site in the Indy blogosphere. Any dissenter from the cult of St.Nicola is given a quick kicking by the mob before being dumped outside as a 'unionist troll'. Indeed, you should count yourself lucky to have made it past moderation in the first place - I never have. The result is a bland echo chamber in the comments section, united only in their loathing of Wings and adulation of the Covid Queen. With Stuart Campbell gone, a new target for their ire must be found for when indyref2 fails to materialise. Judging by Jeggit's latest rant, it looks as if James is moving up the Sturgeonite 'hate parade' - maybe they're beginning to miss their bête noire at Wings already.

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  22. Agreed, I was told I was on the wrong site etc.that I was in the minority and basically told I wasn’t welcome as per the steps statement that if you want to criticise the snp or Ms Sturgeon ur not welcome. It’s so obviously nothing more than a “ love in” where any dissenting voices are “got rid off” . Much like the snp party. So sad but heigh ho.

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