Saturday, May 8, 2021

FINAL RESULTS: The SNP gain one seat overall, will *not* be a minority govt as long as there's an opposition Presiding Officer - and pro-independence parties win majority of the popular vote on the list

I haven't calculated the national popular vote on the list yet, but John Curtice stated that the SNP, Greens and Alba have 51% between them, so I'm sure that's true.  Given the importance the Tories have placed on the #PeachVote, I don't see how they can dismiss that outcome.

In terms of seats, the BBC projection was almost but not quite right - the SNP won one seat more and the Greens took one seat fewer.  That makes no difference to the outcome for the pro-indy parties combined, but crucially it means the SNP will be neither a majority nor minority government as long as an opposition MSP is selected as Presiding Officer.  It'll be a 64-64 split between government and opposition.

Final results:

SNP 64 (+1)
Conservatives 31 (-)
Labour 22 (-2)
Greens 8 (+2)
Liberal Democrats 4 (-1)

Pro-independence parties: 72 seats (56%)
Anti-independence parties: 57 seats (44%)

PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 15 SEATS

27 comments:

  1. Got to be a Green PO, surely?
    Pro-Indyref post-holder and we still have a substantial Pro-Indy majority of seats, even allowing for missing that one?

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  2. How does voting work if it's a tie? I read rules saying presiding officer has a casting vote but not sure how s/he casts their vote. Is it just however they want or are there rules about how a Presiding Officer votes?

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    1. Historically POs have preferred not to be put into the position where they have to cast the deciding vote. If they are, it is up to them how the excercise that vote.

      Alex Ferguson (PO during the 2007-2011 Parliament when exact splits in the chamber were more common than at any time before or since) preffered to side with the status quo in any given vote when it came down to him. But it would be up to the new PO to make these decisions themselves.

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    2. Technically it might be up to them to decide, but in practice they're expected to vote in line with the convention that a casting vote should uphold the status quo, whatever that is. David Steel once broke that convention, leading to a defeat on a symbolic motion for the Labour-Lib Dem government, and he was heavily criticised for it. I don't think he ever really explained why he did it, although he made clear that it was a one-off and wouldn't set a precedent.

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  3. SNP + Green + Alba = 50.1% of the (PR) vote. That's before you add other wee teeny Yes parties.

    Iref2 = Settled will of the people.

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    1. Incredibly good result for SNP considering the shambles of the last 5 years.

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    2. Yes, without the unionist false accusations against sturgeon about breaking the ministerial code + the fantasy grand conspiracy and all the time wasted on that, I imagine indy support could be higher and we'd be closer to indy.

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  4. James you should be factoring 'Independent Green Voice' on Glasgow list. 2000+ votes for IGV as a crank pop up suggests overwhelming bulk of those 2k+ ballots would have surely gone Geeens but for *deliberate* confusion caused by Electoral Commission name registration approval of IGV. Strong suggestion that vote loss equates to one seat rather than two for Greens.

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  5. For me this result shows how solid the support of 45-50% of the electorate is in their support for independence. They are prepared to overlook umpteen scandals, waste, inefficiency, missed targets and probable corruption to keep the rickety vehicle on the road. They are prepared to overlook the lack of preparation for indy, the lack of analysis, the lack of any kind of 'marketing strategy' to convince that needed extra 10%. The lack of a viable rebuttal unit and the deadly tedium of all those SNP MPs at Westminster. I must admit the SNP did better than I thought they would, in fact it is pretty incredible.
    Nicola has been given one last chance, will she seize it? I predict not, instead more occasional sabre rattling, a concentration on gender politics and a fervent hope Boris does not grant a referendum. Lets fight them with our baby boxes!

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    1. It might not be a bad thing if Johnson rejects the request from the new government. Just to get more people's backs up and open a few more eyes to the power imbalance in the UK

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  6. Bit gutted that Andy Wightman never made it..

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  7. John Mason SNP MSP now wants 70% votes for an Indy referendum. How much more insulting can the SNP Reps get - ta for your votes suckers, now away with you.

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    1. You seem unhappy that, for the first time ever in a national election, a majority of Scots voted for parties advocating Scottish indy. Unlike 2011 and 2016, it is now the settled will.

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    2. imagine skier, what the result could have been if the SNP had been even vaguely competent over the last 5 years
      Never mind we already have Kirsty Blackman tweeting about the overwhelming desire of Scots for GRA reform. That will advance the cause no end. Lets not get distracted by land reform etc

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    3. We didn't vote for SNP on the constituencies to insult us and take our votes for granted and it seems that several SNP mouthpieces are doing that already.

      The wokist Roddick doesn't know when to shut it either in relation to the Lists. Just 1 million or so wasted votes and more Yoon mouthpieces in Holyrood as a result.

      I would definitely have preferred Andy Wightman over the insulting Wokist Roddick any day.

      The Settled Will - Tell that to the SNP MSPs then. Some of them arent getting the same message as you obviously.

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  8. Just crunched the numbers (missing out 'others') and make it 50.7 for SNP, Greens and Alba.
    I see Unionists claiming that this should be done on constituency votes.
    And that's different because there's quite a bit of Labour/Green shifting. I wonder if Mark Ruskell or Maggie Chapman might put their names forward for Presiding Officer.

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    1. Shows why spoiling your constituency vote wasn't a good idea of you did so as an Alba supporter. Even more so if you actually voted for a unionist in some mad attempt at tactical voting. The unionists were always going to look for any excuse to play this as a win for them. Their main theme being to ignore the actual numbers and the part of the election that's proportional. Whilst at the same time ignoring just how much of a landslide the FPTP vote actually was in comparison to the one that gets Johnson his majority.

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  9. What happens to a budget if 64 vote for and 64 vote against, does it pass or not?

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    1. Presiding officer has the casting vote and by convention they cast in favour of the government. So 64/64 is as good as a majority.

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    2. Pretty sure Kamala Harris gets to vote ...or is that just in USA? Lol.

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    3. Think the general rules for casting votes are pro status quo except for budgets where it's to vote in favour.

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  10. 64 snp and 8 green party so budget needs green party support to pass

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  11. The PO is usually a MSP who has signalled it's their last term. My pocket change would be on James Dornan. The Greens might put a candidate forward, but neither they nor the Lib Dems would be keen to lose a sitting MSP.

    With an eye on the international scene, a SNP-Green coalition might be quite useful, as the Greens are polling well in Germany, potentially displacing the CDU/CSU in the chancellorship or the SDU as a junior coalition partner. Being able to send a Green Deputy First Minister over there as an ambassador in such circumstances would be hopefully productive.

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  12. The List vote at 51% for Yes parties is just like the Panelbase polls.

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  13. 50/50 is super annoying as we will be bombarded by broadcasters and politicians telling us that there is ‘not’ a majority in favour of a referendum.
    Having said that, the new statesman and daily mail reps on ‘the papers’ tonight had the good grace to admit that it would be a bit bonkers to argue that those in favour of independence had not ‘won’ - we just need to be mindful, apparently, that the Green Party do not have independence as a priority, so there.

    I am looking forward to seeing the detailed figures for Lothian so I can play with them to see if I should have done differently with my regional vote for the Greens.

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  14. James, do you have a source for that 51% Curtice figure? I'm having an online discussion on Quora about an Indy mandate, and it would be handy to know.

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