Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Astounding Alba: new Panelbase poll shows Alex Salmond's new party on course for FIVE seats

Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions (Panelbase / Believe in Scotland):

SNP 47% (-2) 
Conservatives 23% (+1) 
Labour 20% (-) 
Liberal Democrats 6% (-) 
Greens 4% (+2) 

Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions: 

SNP 36% (-3) 
Conservatives 22% (+1) 
Labour 17% (-) 
Greens 9% (+1)
Alba 6% (-)
Liberal Democrats 6% (+1)   
All for Unity 2% (-2) 

Seats projection (with changes from the 2016 election): SNP 63 (-), Conservatives 26 (-5), Labour 20 (-4), Greens 10 (+4), Alba 5 (+5), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)

SNP: 63 seats
All others: 66 seats

SNP SHORT OF AN OVERALL MAJORITY BY 2 SEATS

Pro-independence parties: 78 seats
Anti-independence parties: 51 seats

PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 27 SEATS

The only thing about this poll that critics of Alba seem to be interested in is whether or not Panelbase once again listed the party as "Alba (led by Alex Salmond)" - the theory being that this would artificially boost its reported support (although ironically that means people are conceding that Alex Salmond is actually popular with some voters!).  I don't know the answer to that - I can't see any mention of the wording in the Believe in Scotland write-up.  But personally I'm not sure it's totally unreasonable to have a few explanatory words explaining to respondents what Alba is - it's possible that the party's support might even be underestimated if you don't do that on the first few occasions.

UPDATE: It now looks highly likely that Alex Salmond's name was NOT added to the Alba option in this poll - there's no sign of that in the datasets, and anecdotally, people who were interviewed for the poll say Alba were presented in exactly the same way as every other party.  So the commentators who used "a dodgy question" as the get-out clause for Alba being on 6% in the previous poll will have to dream up an alternative excuse this time.

One thing there perhaps should be a health warning over, though, is the 4% Green vote on the constituency ballot.  The Greens are only standing in a minority of constituencies, so I'd have thought it's unlikely that their national vote will be that high.  Assuming most Green voters are pro-independence, that means the 47% SNP vote in the constituencies may be a slight underestimate.

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More details and analysis to follow.  You can catch-up with Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak to Alba Party leader Alex Salmond, HERE (with video) or HERE (audio only).  And if you find Scot Goes Pop's coverage of polls helpful and would like it to continue, I'm currently running a fundraiser HERE.

32 comments:

  1. James, if this is the poll I did, and I think it is, then it did NOT have "led by Alex Salmond". Alba was listed simply as Alba along with the other parties (which included AFU.)

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    1. Well, tables are now in fact out (I should have checked before writing my other post about averaging) and it doesn't have Salmond in the prompt apparently.

      https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/Believe-in-Scotland-Tabes-for-Publication-140421.pdf

      So my PoP average would now be 3% Alba*



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      *3.4(+0.6)% to be precise.

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    2. Same here smerral. If these are the results from the Panelbase poll I completed on 12 April, only the party names were shown when asking voting intention on the regional list.

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  2. Is it possible to know if the 'price' of alba gaining seats is the loss of an outright majority for the snp from previous poll? It's a factor in choosing what 2nd vote.

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    1. So far national polling averages suggest no seats for Alba, with the ~3% for them likely costing the SNP/Greens a few depending - i.e. assuming Alba voters did try to maximise Yes seats on the day by voting for one of these two instead.

      The whole Alba plan hinges on them doubling their current support, which so far appears relatively stable at 3% since launch.

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    2. I suggest it is much more likely to be the Greens +2% on the constituency where they are for some reason competing with the SNP in many seats.

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    3. Eh? The poll above says 6%? Is that wrong?

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    4. 3% is the average of all recent polls, which is generally a more reliable indicator of support given individual polls use different methodologies and have quite wide variance (at this level of support) of +/-3%.

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    5. Hamish, yes it's easy I think. The SNP have List (2nd Vote) MSPs in only 2 of the 8 electoral regions (1 in Highlands and Islands and 3 in Scotland South, only 4 of the 56 available)

      So, if you aren't in either of the 2 Regions, then there are no SNP MSPs to lose so any other vote than SNP won't affect us.

      Even in Scotland South where we have 3 List MSPs, we will lose one if we win Ayr from Conservative which I think is likely. So an Alba vote can do no harm here either.

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    6. Thanks. I'm snp loyal all my life for the simple reason it's been the only way to win Indy(and I'm Ken on the no nuke bomb policy erc). For me the only reason to consider another is if it would have zero effect on the s no seats. For me then it means alba or green. First time ever I've had to actually consider my vote and what is most effective and also ties in with my values/aims for Scotland.

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  3. The modest swing from snp to green on the constituencies will likely be what's costing the majority.

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    1. I can't see Green winning any constituency. Were you thinking of any in particular?

      I do think that there has been an awakening of understanding about how the 2nd/List vote works and I think the Greens may well benefit. But not at the expense of the SNP as we only have List MSPs in two of the eight regions. Only 4 in total.

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    2. Oldchap meant that the very modest Green vote in the fourteen constituencies they are standing is the biggest threat to the SNP losing a few seats - to unionist parties in more marginal seats. Although arguably they will pick up anything they lose on the list.

      Note the case of Edinburgh Central with Angus Robertson standing for the SNP. The Green's Alison Johnstone, who took 13% of the vote in 2016, is standing again and now we have Bonnie Prince Bob also cutting into the indy vote that AR might otherwise expect. Robertson's issue is that he is only second on the Lothian list as Graham Campbell from Glasgow has nicked in ahead of him. This might be an interesting watch on election night.

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  4. Green at 4% is surprising. They aren't standing in many seats. I would be inclined to think that is overstated and some of that will go the SNP, although the list vote for the Greens may be fine.

    No idea about Alba, they don't float my boat but I may be persuaded to lend my list vote to the Greens. Haven't decided yet. I will continue to watch the polls. I have friends that are going to vote Alba and was surprised they were stuck on 3%. It seemed light.

    Time will tell.

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  5. More importantly for the UK government possibly consenting to a referendum, 51% of referendum supporting parties (assuming that will be in the Greens manifesto).

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    1. For goodness' sake, it's not whether the UK Government consents to a referendum, it's whether the House of Commons consents -- and all the unionist parties were opposed to it at the General Election.

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    2. UK Parliament will almost certainly vote in line with what the Executive says because the government has a majority there but apologies for getting it technically wrong.

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  6. Greens presently 3% ahead of Alba so look to be getting my 2nd vote in Glasgow. If Alba draw level with Greens then me & Mrs PC will split our List vote between them. If Alba take the lead then they'll get our List votes.

    (Yes, I know there are regional variations but alas I don't see any polls breaking the vote down region by region, so all I can go in is the national poll breakdown).

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  7. Alba struggling a bit with the female vote. Sex of voters by party:

    Alba
    56% Male
    44% Female

    SNP
    42% Male
    58% Female


    Maybe Alba should change tack and model itself as a male rights party?

    By that I mean to start kicking up a fuss about 'man = adult human male!' and 'boobs in the gents changing rooms!' etc?

    It's funny how nobody really talks about this angle. It's like they're not really wanting to actually debate the issue, but just rabble rouse, which is easier with the image of a huge hairy bloke in a dress ravishing helpless young ladies at the commie pool locker room.

    Females with sex dyshoria are largely ignored.

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    1. If those figures are true the SNP has an even bigger ‘man problem’ to try to overcome!

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    2. Lol, true, and my post was of course tongue in cheek somewhat.

      However, the SNP are not trying to sell themselves as a 'man's rights' party (but an equality one), whereas Alba are claiming the 'women's rights' mantle.

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    3. 56 / 44 (ie a 3% swing either way) would to me suggest sex is virtually irrelevant. I've followed you on this blog for a while and you're generally well considered but this is reaching. Surprising analysis.

      So any party outwith a 3% margin of parity has a gender issue? What's the SNPs, labours or the greens? Lol

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    4. Hi Ross. Love the name. Best name going for a scotsman.

      I was of course being a bit tongue in cheek as I said.

      My overall point is that the GRA debate isn't about female sex based rights. It is just as much about male sex based rights if it is about this. Likewise the right of people with sex dysphoria - which includes both males and females - to quietly go about their lives free from discrimination.

      So for me, in terms of this issue at least, I'd be against a party that framed it other than this, i.e. tried to argue it was all about 'an attack' on a particular group. It's just not.

      I am happily voting Christine Grahame and Joan McAlpine again in May.

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    5. Aye sorry I read it too literally, I see now it was tongue and cheek.

      Honestly I couldn't give a monkeys about the GRA debate and won't be voting with it in mind. It sucks goodness out of decent people online and it's a relatively minor issue. Just my tuppence.

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    6. Skier you are time wasting and stirring here. "Tongue in cheek" doesn't cut it - you tried to score a cheap point and got rumbled by Ross.

      Alba sample size is around 50 people, SNP almost 10 times that. So if you want to make your claim on a sample size of 50 go for it. If your point had any merit at all it would be a "man issue" for the SNP with a much larger sample size. But hey, I get it - you're campaigning - so any mud will do.

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    7. You are better informed than me. I only know the current List MSPs are Joan McAlpine, Paul Wheelhouse and Emma Harper. Maybe that explains why Paul Wheelhouse hasn't answered my emails if he is not standing.

      Because Scotland South already has 3 List SNP, if we win Ayr (hopefully) we will lose 1 so net no change. So I've decided to 2ndVote Alba.

      We will still get Joan + other so I feel ok about my decision.

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    8. Hi Ian,

      I don't mind how you vote. Feel free to vote as you like. Do so honestly with your heart is my opinion. I have personally only ever said how I vote and why.

      I am not sure why you have taken issue with my post. I think it was a sensible point made lightly. But sure it could have been misinterpreted.

      Cheers, Ross (a different one).

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    9. Thanks SS. I like and respect your posts generally and I was doing that human thing of not saying the good thing while picking out the bad. Fair play to you for being kind in your response.

      I'm not going to rehash my original point....let's move on.

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  8. How was the list vote described on the poll? The question can influence the result. Second vote or Regional vote?

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    1. A fair 'And who would you vote for with your regional vote?'

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  9. All good for #BothVotesYes, see Alba are now exceeding their crowdfunding target. All good for our Yes movement.

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  10. I voted today in Lothian SNP 1 Alba 2

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