Wednesday, April 14, 2021
Alba may contribute to a Yes-dominated parliament
Just a quick note to let you know that I've written a piece for The National's online-only National Extra feature, about today's remarkable Panelbase poll suggesting that Alba Party could be on course for five seats in the Scottish Parliament. You can read it HERE.
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Great article and great news
ReplyDeleteBut that's not Patrick Harvie, it's Andy Wightman in the picture!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thenational.scot/resources/images/12509489.jpg?display=1&htype=0&type=responsive-gallery
The panelbase 6% for Alba is positive because they were prompted for in the same way as other other parties. So Alba fans can definitely be more pleased with this than the last panelbase.
ReplyDeleteHowever, as James notes, it could still be that it's just a house effect of panelbase, and in fact the previous prompt with 'led by Alex Salmond' didn't actually make any difference, i.e. we have a real 6(nc)%.
As has been discussed in past threads, adding his name might not have boosted Alba, or at least it might put some off while encouraging others, so net no difference.
If 6%s start cropping up in other polls, then Alba may be heading for a few seats. Lib Dem type levels. However, to be confident of that, they really need 6% on average. Lib dems for example are holding steady at about 6-7%.
For the moment Alba are 3(nc)% in polling averages since that first Survation at the end of March. It's enough to maybe cost Yes parties a few (3?) seats but not gain Alba any; assuming this 3% would alternatively be voting SNP or Green on the list.
Of course I don't advise people how to vote; I just say how I plan to vote and why. But if on the eve of the election people are to attempt a 'supermajority' tactical approach based on e.g. 49% SNP on average for the constituency, they need to accept that what Alba are averaging too can be expected to happen with similar probability.
This is because polls are already factoring in people attempting to vote 'tactically' for Alba (or Green) on the list. And it may be an over-estimation given people can do it risk-free in polling while they watch whether others are doing so. Smaller parties do tend to fall back a little on the day because of this.
Anyway, still a few weeks to go!