Thursday, April 22, 2021

Alba affirmed

I remember feeling a bit windswept when I heard the news that Caroline McAllister and Lynne Anderson had defected from the SNP to Alba.  Of course as an Alba supporter I was delighted, but there was a little part of me that recalled what a remarkable achievement it was to turn the tide within the SNP and get them elected in November as Women's Convener and Equalities Convener.  And out of the blue they were voluntarily giving all of that up.  Now, to be clear, it won't have been a rash or hasty decision - I'm sure Alex Salmond or his close allies will have been in touch with them well in advance to give them a chance to mull it over and make a considered decision.  But once you jump, you're committed and you have to make it work.  You've left the SNP in the hands of the Fiona Robertsons of this world, and if you want your viewpoint to be heard in future, that'll depend on getting Alba MSPs elected in May.  

That's why it's totally unrealistic for people to say "oh look at the two new polls, Alba aren't getting off the ground, you have to toddle back and vote SNP on the list". The people who have moved across to Alba don't have that option.  Of course if Alba were to eventually fold, some people would go back to the SNP, start from scratch, and try to build up an internal powerbase all over again.  But that would be a very long-term project.  For now they're quite rightly going to hold their nerve, see this campaign through, and try to maximise Alba's list vote.  If every party that had a couple of poor opinion polls immediately gave up, no politician would ever achieve anything.

I've already sent in my vote by post, and it was SNP on the constituency ballot, Alba on the list.  When I saw the ComRes poll this morning, I did wonder for a fraction of a second if I'd made a mistake, but I quickly realised that I hadn't.  I live in Central Scotland, and the reality is that a list vote here for either Alba or the SNP could easily be wasted - a vote for Alba could be wasted if they fall below the de facto threshold of 5% or 6%, and a vote for the SNP is likely to be wasted due to the d'Hondt formula penalising them for being over-represented in the constituency seats.  Some would say that the Greens are the percentage choice on the list in this region, but I was never going to vote for a party that doesn't make independence its highest priority.  (I'm also very unhappy with the Greens' obsession with identity politics, but I could have held my nose if they at least shared Alba's sense of urgency on independence.)

The reality is that the Alba experiment will have been a success if there's at least one Alba seat in the new parliament.  If you doubt that, you only need to look at how important it is to the Alba-haters that the party draws a complete blank and that Alex Salmond suffers his "final, crushing defeat". They won't be able to make that claim if Mr Salmond himself is returned as an Alba MSP in the north-east.  I was thinking back to 2003 when the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party won a list seat in Central Scotland thanks to a below-the-radar campaign that relied on leaflets pointing out that they were running Billy McNeill as a paper candidate.  I don't recall them registering in the pre-election polls much.

In other words, don't write Alba off.  It's entirely possible they'll have a presence in the new parliament.

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You can catch-up with Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak to Alba Party leader Alex Salmond, HERE (with video) or HERE (audio only).  And if you find Scot Goes Pop's coverage of polls helpful and would like it to continue, I'm currently running a fundraiser HERE.

40 comments:

  1. Voting on election day, myself. Definite SNP in Edinburgh West, of course. But still on the fence between Alba and the Greens on the Lothian list. Leaning to Alba as Kenny MacAskill is a top tier #1 candidate. I've my differences with the fella on many issues, but his eyes are on Indy beyond any of the Greens.

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    1. Unfortunately Alba's #2 candidate in Lothian is about the worst single candidate in the entire election (at least that I'm aware of). The SNP's lead candidate is also pretty bad, in a blander way. So it'll be the Greens for me.

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    2. "...but his eyes are on Indy beyond any of the Greens."

      I think you've just given yourself the reason for voting Alba in the List vote, John.

      FWIW I'm SNP/Alba in the NE

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    3. I've already voted SNP 1& Alba 2

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    4. I know very little about Alex Arthur, but the very fact that he's standing for election makes him superior to, for example, Ian Botham.

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    5. Edinburgh (North & Leith) here; will be voting for Ben MacPherson on the constituency vote but do feel a second SNP vote would be wasted; but looking at 2016 the Lib Dems got over 5% on the List Vote and didn't win a seat so I expect an Alba vote to be wasted too.

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    6. The Lib Dems won a constituency seat in Lothian, so their list vote was divided by two. For that reason they would never have had a chance of a list seat unless their vote had been roughly twice as high.

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  2. Alba remain on 3% average, so I think Salmond still is in with a chance. I guess the hope would be that 3% is concentrated in a couple of regions such as the NE.

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  3. I still can't make my mind up between the Greens and Alba for my list vote. I've been vacillating between the 2 for weeks. I come at this as someone on the far left, much further to the left than either of these parties, trying to make a decision about what option is going to cause the most benefit in the long term.

    My sense of disillusionment with with SNP is almost complete. I don't believe in their vision, their record or their commitment to independence. But pragmatically I understand if we are to get a crack at independence sooner rather than later that they are the only option right now. But this will be literally the last ever time I will vote for them. If we're having this same discussion in 5 years you can bet I won't be the only one.

    I don't really believe in anyone in the political class in this country anymore. I don't believe we live in a democracy. I'm inclined to vote Alba as a disrupting force, to hasten independence. But I also in my heart just don't believe that they are going to get that many votes or seats. Maybe Alex Salmond and no one else. And his mainstream media baggage is vast, the masses hate him. His lone voice in parliament really won't do much.

    So as I sit here in Glasgow Southside, amongst the tenement ruins and the poverty, holding my nose so hard not to vomit as I give my constituency vote to Nicola Sturgeon, not really believing a list vote for for Alba will translate in to anything, being incredibly disappointed with the only other option, the Greens, I ask myself is this it? Is this the only interaction with democracy I get? It's utterly, shamefully pathetic.

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    1. I sympathise with the general sentiment. If it's any consolation, the choice here is still better than in England or the US, and not really any worse than in European countries with PR.

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    2. I disagree I dont think the masses hate him.

      I think he remains popular and over 50 percent of SNP voters will vote for him.

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    3. Try living in England and having to vote there then! The SNP are operating with their hands tied behind their backs it is Westminster who still in the main holds the purse strings and the SNP have done more and offering more than Labour ever did.

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    4. Edward, the actual number of votes Alba need in each region is quite small. In Lothian a bit under 10,000 should do it for 1 seat. So if you consider the 2-300,000 that were attending the AUOB marches then if a third of those voted Alba they would get at least 1 seat in each region.

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  4. SNP 1, Alba 2, in Glasgow for me. I actually like Roza Salih SNP list leader, but she stands no chance, and I can't trust the Greens. Alan's policy position is FAR superior to any other, and it's the policies I'm voting for.

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  5. Did you miss the last NEC? The one before their move to ALBA.
    The meeting in which Fiona Robertson was given the remit to draft the documents that should have fallen to the elected representatives.
    The meeting at which Nicola sat side on and ignored everyone but her cult.
    Do you not think they had zero choice? Elected by members and ignored by Sturgeon.

    Why was Fiona Robertson there? Backdoor via an affiliated group. She doesn't need to be elected by members.

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  6. I'm in Southern Scotland for list MSPs so after careful consideration it'll be SNP in East Lothian constituency and for my list vote . some Alba supporters are not helping their cause by calling SNP 1&2 voters traitors,or stupid or Unionists or worse ( If there is worse than being called a Unionist ), if The First Eck is returned to Holyrood I for one would be happy to see that , though i'm a bit dubious regarding some of their other candidates , so do your own research and vote for your choice or your choices, but please do vote its now or never .

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    1. Another vague smear of ALBA candidates. "nudge, nudge do your own research" pathetic.

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    2. Why vague? That's what some loons are saying. I have no skin in this game, but vaguely attacking someone who gave a good comment is weird.

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  7. If you're worried about the impact5of salmond don't (unless you live in de North East as you won't be electing him). I however, do live in the North East and I'm not worried at all, in fact I'd love him to get back.. So (real yes) alba for me.

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  8. Most of the SNP voters in my area are voting Swinney and then Alba. Salmond continues to be extremely popular and whilst Swinney and Sturgeon aren't the alternative is Murdo Fraser!

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  9. I think it is reasonable to think that Alex Salmond might have got in on the list as an independent.

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  10. Regional list SNP support by sex:

    Comres
    Women = 47% SNP
    Men = 31% SNP

    Yougov
    Women = 44% SNP
    Men = 35% SNP

    Seems SNP remain the party of 'women's rights' as far as women are concerned.

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    1. This strikes me as worrying. At the first indyref more men than women voted yes, and now it looks as though that trend is reversing. Parties should be aiming for a balanced representation. That 12pt gap says that men are turned off by their policies.

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  11. SNP 1 Alba 2 for me also. Alba saved the SNP my constituency vote, as far as I'm concerned.

    BTW - has there been an unusually low number of opinion polls published this time, so close to the election? Strange.

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  12. While the unweighted base does look at bit more SNPish, it's not enough to explain the massively high Yes recall, particularly give the more recent 2016 recall is perfect.

    2014
    60(+15%) Yes
    40(-15%) No

    2016
    36(-2)% Leave
    64(+2)% Remain

    2016
    52(+5) SNP

    Causes heavy SNP/Yes downweighing.

    I guess we'll see next month whether 2014 weighting is past it's best. Certainly, the electorate then and today are very different. It's six years younger, but pollsters are trying to give people the past vote of people 6 years older than them.

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    1. It seems quite a few folk may be ashamed of what they did in 2014. To the extent that they have, consciously or unconsciously blanked it from the memory banks lol.

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  13. The full tables for the YouGov poll.

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/gat47c3kha/TimesResults_Scotland_210420_W.pdf

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  14. Already voted by post SNP 1 Alba 2. West of Scotland.

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  15. Already voted by post SNP 1 Alba 2. West of Scotland.

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  16. Haud oan, I thought the judiciary were all in Sturgeon's pocket? Wings/IfS assured me of this.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19249869.snp-set-clash-judiciary-pledge-introduce-register-interests/

    SNP set for clash with judiciary over pledge to introduce register of interests

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    1. Campbell never said the judiciary were in Sturgeon's pocket. He said the Lord Advocate was in her pocket and by his actions, I agree.

      As did a group of ex senior lawyers and sheriffs recently in Scottish Legal News

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    2. That's not what the faculty of advocates said, they issued an official statement condemning English attacks (like Campbell's) on the independence of Scots law / the Lord advocate.

      Campbell is a liar anyway. He lied about sturgeon breaching the ministerial code for example.

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    3. A wee reminder.

      http://www.advocates.org.uk/news-and-responses/news/2021/feb/importance-of-maintaining-confidence-in-judicial-system-and-rule-of-law

      ...The Faculty wishes to remind all concerned of the importance of maintaining confidence in the judicial system and in the rule of law. Maintaining that confidence requires, amongst other things, recognition of the importance of the independent role of the Lord Advocate, the independent role of the courts and, perhaps most importantly, the vital place of the verdicts of impartial juries in criminal proceedings.

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    4. I wasn't referring to the Faculty statement, which would be obvious if you had read my comment without jumping to conclusions (and in any case I would direct you to the final part of your quote, which was a rebuke to Sturgeon's public undermining of the jury verdict).

      This is what I was talking about:

      https://www.scottishlegal.com/article/exclusive-crown-office-has-no-licence-to-police-a-free-press-in-a-free-country-say-senior-lawyers

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    5. The opinion of individual lawyers is as valid as my own on the matter. Adam Tompkins is a lawyer for example. The faculty of advocates is better seen as speaking for the body as a whole.

      Sturgeon hasn't undermined the jury verdict; she's consistently said Salmond actions were not criminal. Only in people's imagination were the faculty of advocates attacking the FM and the lord advocate's independence.

      It was pretty clear the rebuke was to the English media, Wings included, who were trying to push a grand anti-Salmond conspiracy where everyone from the SNP, police, the CPS, the courts, the Lord Advocate to the till lady in tesco was involved in 'trying to send an innocent man to jail to help Peter Murrell and partner's career'. Salmond has even apologised for his inappropriate behaviour which got him into hot water.

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    6. Well you don't know the difference between the LA and the judiciary and have already jumped to conclusions without reading what I said, so I reckon I'll take you opinion with a pinch of salt.

      I'll leave you with this:

      https://www.scottishlegal.com/article/scots-lawyers-call-for-role-of-lord-advocate-to-be-split

      Have fun.

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  17. Here in the Scottish Borders my current thinking is that I will get most bang for my buck sticking with both votes SNP. If polls nearer the time suggest otherwise I will reconsider my list vote.

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  18. James. I looked at those last two polls.both have independence losing big. One by 5!! So I tend to think they suck. Also, I don't see the numbers adding up either. One brags that SNP will not get majority but will get 65? Seats and up 2, but also greens will be up so the two together will have most ever. Weird.

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    1. 48-52 is losing big? That's a statistical tie.

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