Thursday, February 25, 2021

And make that TWENTY-TWO Yes majorities in a row: Ipsos-Mori telephone survey puts support for independence at 52%

Given the internal difficulties the SNP have been experiencing recently (some of them, let's face it, pointlessly self-inflicted by the leadership), I've been a bit nervous that the next poll might break the long sequence of consecutive pro-independence majorities, which stretch all the way back to a Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll conducted last June.  It's a relief, then, that the poll released today was conducted by Ipsos-Mori, which has been one of the most Yes-friendly firms in recent years.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Ipsos-Mori / STV, 15th-21st February 2021)

Yes 52% (-4)
No 48% (+4)

Have we been living a charmed life recently?  All of the last three polls were conducted by firms that have been on the Yes-friendly end of the spectrum, and all of them showed Yes remaining in the lead while dropping a few percentage points.  It's perfectly possible, then, that the next poll from a less Yes-friendly firm (for example YouGov or Survation) may break the sequence by showing either a narrow No lead or a 50-50 split.  But we shouldn't automatically assume that'll be the case - sometimes pollsters just converge with each other, so another possibility is that Yes may just be settling in at around the 51-53 range across all firms.  We'll have to wait and see.

The concern must be, though, that any fall in Yes support has occurred while the Sturgeon-Salmond controversy has been largely a 'bubble issue', so the impact of that story may not be fully factored in yet.  There's a broad consensus that the resignations of both Peter Murrell and Liz Lloyd are nigh-on inevitable, which means the SNP will at the very least be facing a day or two of very painful media coverage.  That could conceivably have a knock-on effect on support for independence, but the hope must be that we'll all move on relatively quickly.  I know some people honestly believe that Nicola Sturgeon will be brought down - I disagree with that, but if by any chance I'm wrong the impact on Yes support could be severe.  My guess is that the Yes surge over recent months has been tightly bound up with the popularity of Ms Sturgeon's handling of the pandemic.

There's some remarkably good news for supporters of 'Plan B' in one of the poll's supplementary questions.  Even before Don't Knows are excluded, an absolute majority of respondents (52%) think that, if a Section 30 order is refused, the Scottish Government should either simply press ahead with a referendum without Westminster's consent, or "take the UK Government to court to try and establish a legal basis for holding a referendum".  (The latter option isn't ideally worded, because of course what would actually happen is that the Scottish Government would legislate for a referendum and then wait to see if the UK Government launches a legal challenge as provided for by the Scotland Act.)  Better still are the results among Yes supporters: a massive 87% (!) are in favour of one of the Plan B options, and only 9% are opposed.  As many as 33% of Yes voters think that the Scottish Government shouldn't even bother with the courts, and should just get on with a referendum.

Oh, and you know how the Tories always say that nobody cares about independence and nobody wants a referendum?  Isn't it odd, then, that this poll shows that a) the majority of people want independence, b) the majority of people intend to vote for pro-independence parties, c) independence is the top issue that people say will decide their votes (it's listed as a major factor by 44% of respondents, compared to 32% for education and 25% for health), and d) a comfortable majority think that a referendum should be held if the SNP win the election.  It must be that people don't know their own minds, eh, Douglas?  I can't think of any other explanation.

Nicola Sturgeon's net approval rating has dropped by sixteen points since the Ipsos-Mori poll in October.  That can perhaps be explained by the Salmond inquiry and the score-settling against Joanna Cherry and others.  However, she remains way ahead of all the other politicians that were asked about.  The ratings for both Douglas Ross and Willie Rennie have improved a touch (Rennie now even has a net positive rating), but there's bad news for Sir Keir Starmer - he's dropped from +16 in October to +3 now.  It can't be a great sign if people like him less the more they see of him.  

Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions:

SNP 52% (-3)
Conservatives 23% (+1)
Labour 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-1)
Greens 3% (+2)

Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions:

SNP 47% (-)
Conservatives 22% (-)
Labour 14% (-2)
Greens 8% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-)

Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 72 (+9), Conservatives 26 (-5), Labour 17 (-7), Greens 9 (+3), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)

SNP: 72 seats (55.8%)
All other parties: 57 seats (44.2%)

SNP OVERALL MAJORITY OF 15 SEATS

Pro-independence parties: 81 seats (62.8%)
Anti-independence parties: 48 seats (37.2%)

PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 33 SEATS

That would be the Greens' best result ever in a Holyrood election, exceeding the 7 seats they won in the 'rainbow parliament' of 2003.  I'd suggest it gives a more realistic impression of their prospects than recent polls that have suggested they might win as many as 11 seats - those polls used a question that was less than ideal and might have given some respondents the false impression that the list vote is a second preference vote.  

Fans of the fringe 'pop-up list parties' will be beside themselves with excitement at the news that one of them gets a mention in a major poll for the first time ever - 1% of respondents who indicate that they may change their minds about how to vote on the regional list ballot say that Action for Independence, the nominally 'umbrella' party set up by former MSP Dave Thompson, would be their most likely choice if they do change their minds.  It's unclear whether AFI were included as a 'prompted option' in the poll or whether respondents mentioned them spontaneously (my guess would be the latter).  

There's mixed news for the SNP on the same question - prospective 'mind-changers' are slightly more likely to switch to the SNP than to the Tories, but the biggest potential beneficiaries are Labour.  That's probably because Labour are inoffensive to many unionist voters, and also to a minority of independence supporters.  

Ipsos MORI asked for views on the Scottish Labour leadership candidates, and it turns out that Monica Lennon isn't far behind Anas Sarwar - she trails him by 28% to 25% among all voters, and by 40% to 35% among Labour voters.  I haven't been keeping a close eye on the gossip about the vote, so I'm reluctant to give out a betting tip that might prove to be a complete dud.  However, I'd just note the disparity between the above numbers and the betting odds, which have Sarwar as an absolutely overwhelming favourite.  On the face of it, then, Monica Lennon might conceivably be a value bet.

*  *  *

I'm going to give a plug to various SNP crowdfunders as the campaign proper approaches.  Today I'd like to point you in the direction of Angus Robertson's bid to oust the Tories in Ruth Davidson's seat of Edinburgh Central - you can make a donation HERE.  

77 comments:


  1. The SNP on course for a majority at Holyrood with 52% support on the constituency vote and 47% on the list. Quite a high list vote.

    Poll by
    @IpsosMORI
    for
    @STVNews

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  2. It's a subject that most people rate lowly on their radars, and without any campaigns it's like a poll on whether you prefer chutney, or etonians.

    The turnout for an election in May (if anyone holds such a thing) will be more interesting. I wouldn't bet on a 55% turnout like the last one.

    Anyway, 45% of the Scottish electorate couldn't care less about the Scottish parliament. That much is certain.

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    1. "Nothing is certain apart from my evidence-free assertion. My evidence-free assertion is certain."

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    2. 35% of the electorate are hard pushed to vote for anything.

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    3. An election is evidence-free. That's a new normal.

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    4. James: elections are 'evidence-free'? FO

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  3. THE FISHING EXPEDITION

    Part 1.

    Barbara Allison, Director, Communications, Ministerial Support and Facilities, Scottish Government

    In Salmonds final submission to the Inquiry he provides a copy of an email sent by Allison dated 27/8/2018. The text is as follows:

    Hello (redacted)

    I am not sure if you will remember me. I was Director of People/HR at the time you worked with Scottish Government. I hope that this finds you well.

    You may be aware that there has been considerable media coverage here over the past few days in connection with the Former First Minister. We are aware that this coverage has been quite upsetting for some people and we are keen to support in any way we can.

    Your name and email address has been provided by a current employee at the Scottish Government, noting that you were someone who worked with Scottish Government previously and they were keen to ensure that you were offered any support you may require.

    I would be very happy to have a chat by phone or by email and put you in touch with the various support channels if that would be helpful.

    Kind regards Barbara.

    Now Allison in her visits in front of the Committee never mentioned her fishing expedition which happened just as Evans passed her Decision paper on Salmond to the Crown Office/Police and in the same time frame as the leak to the Daily Record.

    Now I have no idea if Allison goes fishing for trout or Salmon but she clearly was going after Salmond.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trolling must tire you out. Have a lovely day after a good rest.

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    2. Unknown you obviously do not have the wit or energy to come up with with a moniker.

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    3. It's pretty standard in any investigation for investigators to appeal (including asking relevant organizations to do this on their behalf) for any victims or those who may have knowledge of the crimes - which they may only realise in retrospect - to come forward.

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    4. Appeals to victims / witnesses isn't regarded as 'fishing'.

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    5. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - this was after it was passed to the police to investigate. It was not Allisons role to investigate. She never declared it to the Inquiry. She never asked if she had any concerns about anyone else. It is 100% obvious what she was doing.

      You are truly a disgusting liar and no future claim that you were just playing Devils advocate will excuse you. Someone like you should have no role with impressionable young people. But as you lie all the time I wouldn't be surprised if you lie about that.

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    6. So you now insult intelligent adult (early 20s*) scots as 'impressionable' like they are wee kids? You are definitely a right-winger.

      Kevin O'Gorman thought the same and he was against universities 'fishing' (or rather appealing) for people to come forward if they had been subject to sexual harassment.

      ---
      *I only supervise postgrads

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    7. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014)

      Does your employer know that you regularly lie and post misleading information or is it all a lie.

      So Smearer when you posted you had to leave Scotland to get a job despite being highly qualified and then you subsequently posted that you only went for interviews did you think you lied the first time or is deliberately misleading ok in your stank of a mind. What lies will you now dream up.

      So once again just like Sturgeon you are Smearing. The fishing took place after it had been placed in the hands of the police to investigate. You read Salmonds submission he said that. I said that in my post. I said it in my subsequent post. You really really cannot read well. You supervise post grads - hope to hell there is not much reading involved because you are crap at it. The bashing of rocks must be your forte.

      You know nothing Smearer. Evans had already appealed for people to come forward way back in late 2017. Allison was fishing during a police investigation.

      Delete
  4. Honestly, unless you are an mono-obsessive, the important stuff is that:

    - The Scottish government is responsible for the education system.
    - The Scottish government is responsible for the health system.
    - The Scottish government is responsible for national transport infrastructure.
    - The Scottish government is responsible for the funding of the councils that take care of our bins and orphans.

    etc. etc. etc. etc.

    I have had just about enough of nitwit nationalist totalitarian Scottish crap.

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    1. The Scottish Government are also responsible to the voters, 52% of whom want Scotland to become an independent country - and that's probably partly because they understand that independence will help improve public services.

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    2. Isn't thatthe point? One of the biggest shocks to the economic well being of thei country is the decision to cut us off from the part of the world we happen to be closest to and erect trade barriers? And that's something the Scottish Government and indeed the Scottish people have no say or control over.

      That's the whole point. It's either independence or hope in vain that the good folk of England will choose a government more to our taste. It's a bit like being a vegan in a group of rabid carnivores and hoping that one day they'll choose that we all go to a nice vegan place but in the meantime being forced to eat meat all the time.

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    3. Domhnall: I didn't vote SNP, so do I get a refund, or do I erect an international border around my flat?

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    4. I notice you avoid mentioning the economy, brexit, taxes, welfare, jobs etc.

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    5. - The Scottish government is responsible for the education system.
      - The Scottish government is responsible for the health system.
      - The Scottish government is responsible for national transport infrastructure.
      - The Scottish government is responsible for the funding of the councils that take care of our bins and orphans.

      The Scottish Government is NOT responsible for Brexit. Maybe you can help ? I have 3 deliveries waiting at my German manufacturer but am unable to arrange shipment because last week UK customs wanted paperwork to show gross weight per pallet and now they want listed weights individually. They also wanted VAT shown in documentation. Now they don't. Vile English Nationalism is destroying multiple Scottish businesses and you clearly don't give a fuck. Oh and it appears that, courtesy of the Internal market bill the UK Government power grab will now be funding national transport infrastructure and council funding. You think its bad now ? ..... just fucking wait ! So please don't give me all your pish about nitwit nationalism. Your brand of UKock, British / English nationalism is the most toxic, divisive and destructive variety presently available to the Scottish public

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  5. Dear Mouse,
    'I have had just about etc, etc, etc...'
    Well, cheerio then.

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  6. I would think that 100% of Scots want a better Scottish education system. 100% of Scots want their bins emptied more regularly. And 100% of Scots want the potholes fixed. Sacking 50-odd MPs isn't that important.

    You should write about Serco, seeing as they seem to run the Scottish government.

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    Replies
    1. Funnily enough I hear the same things in England, Wales, Northern Ireland, France, Germany, United States etc etc. We all want these things.

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  7. Mouse: For the avoidance of doubt, I delete all comments that lecture me on what I can and can't blog about. That's three in the last few minutes. You might as well stop wasting your breath.

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    1. I like the pointless quasi-political invective. The stuff in the strainer might get on your clothing and ruin your complexion.

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  8. Scots now know that the MSP they are voting for were not involved. Salmond has cleared that up for them.

    I doubt most people know who Peter Murrell is. I mean it's not as if voters know that a party CEO even does never mind the names of these.

    For voters its like 'OK, so Salmond doesn't like this murrell person, who ever he is. Ok so murrell has to resign. Like I give a f**k'. It has zero bearing on their lives. What matters is brexit, jobs, the economy, devolution, independence, covid etc.

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    1. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) says "Scots now know that the MSP they are voting for were not involved." Smearer Skier lying again. Salmond has not cleared that up for them and Smearer is a blatant liar.

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    2. Yes he has. He has named who in the SNP he believes was malicious towards him. He gave 3 SNP names; none are candidates.

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    3. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - blatant liar.

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    4. No, it's there in his submission. 4 names, none SNP candidates.

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    5. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - he also says "There are others who, for legal reasons, I am not allowed to name."

      So you are a blatant liar.

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  9. It's been interesting watching the women haters in this affair being convinced that if Murrell was at fault, then his wife must be at fault / must be blamed too because she's his wife so not her own woman.

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    1. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014 - smearing again because all he has is lies and smears.

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    2. Why did you think this applied to you IfS?

      Do you think women should take the blame for what their husbands do?

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    3. Smearer Skier ( liar since 2014) - never said it applied to me and you are just deflecting and smearing generally. You are a liar with no shame.

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    4. Why are you responding to my post then? Who am I smearing?

      Surely you'd agree that only sexist women haters would blame a woman for what her husband does?

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    5. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - you truly are a disgusting person. You are one side of the coin with your old disgusting mate GWC on the other side.

      Fuck off with your straw men. I don't jump to your tune.

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    6. "Fuck off with your straw men. I don't jump to your tune."

      Then why are you responding to loads of posts which don't mention you / are not in response to yours?

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    7. He comes from the the charm school centred in Bath. He cannot give you the simple answer to your simple question.

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    8. Unknown when did you stop being a woman hater. There is a simple question for you - a month and a year will do.

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    9. Unknown you aint that great with simple questions so think before you post next time and please do come up with a moniker that will immediately be recognisable as you. My suggestion: ARSEHOLE!

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  10. Lloyd, Evans, P Murrell and A N Other who I cannot name all need to go. And an apology from NS for taking her eye off the ball. Putting GRA and hate crime bill on back burner and kicking out entryists with no interest in Independence would also be appreciated.

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    1. If the committee conclude to this effect, then definitely yes. Obviously not on the word of one person.

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  11. So I do not get to decide?!!! :(

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  12. So for VI, it seems ISP remains on less than 2% for the list.

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  13. Alex Salmond has not been a member of the S. N. P. for years. Why is most people still acting as if he still is.

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  14. I see unionists are now back to saying Nicola wasn't out to get Salmond, but was colluding with her best mate, in this case by telling him who was complaining about him.

    Going full circle.

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    Replies
    1. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - it is only liars like you that go round in circles to try and cover up their lies.

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    2. Liar? It's all over the news. Did you not watch FMQs?

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    3. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) has obviously been watching his favourite broadcaster the Britnat Broadcasting Channel. Yep Britnats like you lap up the British state broadcaster. You lie almost as much as the BBC and Sturgeon.

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  15. NOT A SHRED OF EVIDENCE Is now Sturgeons favourite saying. Funny how she kept saying she will not comment until she appeared before the Committee. Yesterday at the Corona virus briefing she had multiple mad rants about Salmond. Jim Sillars added it up to be 9 mins worth. A public health briefing and the FM of Scotland uses it to attack Salmond and attack the court verdict.

    Sillars reckons she has broken the Ministerial code. I wonder if James Hamilton will add it to the list.

    When she says not a shred of evidence she is really thinking I wish I had got all the evidence shredded and then I wouldn't have had to rely on the Crown Office, Swinney and Evans to try and hide it all.

    She is a guilty person feeling the heat.

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    1. She's not named in Salmond's submission as someone who acted maliciously. He names 4 people, including three from the SNP. Sturgeon is not one of these.

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    2. He doesn't name Swinney, his mate of decades, as acting maliciously either. You should maybe apologise for joining unionists in attacking Swinney when Salmond deliberately and specifically excludes him from the list of people he feels wronged him.

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    3. The troll still trolling his anti-NS stuff, we will wait and hear all of those giving evidence over the next week and make our own minds up thanks.

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    4. Smearer Skier ( liar since 2014) you should apologise for all the lies you post. That should keep you occupied for a couple of weeks at least.

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    5. I've been looking at the mad house known as WGD BTL and bloody hell Terence Callachan who says there is no conflict between Sturgeon and Salmond comes across as the most sane of the lot of them. That's how stark raving mad they are. Mr Kavanagh has got a full house of looneys.

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    6. Salmond does not criticise Sturgeon says Smearer.

      So why did Sturgeon criticise Salmond at yesterday's briefing and at today's FMQs.

      Nasty nasty nasty Sturgeon still smearing Sturgeon and as Smearer says Mr Nice guy Salmond is not criticising Sturgeon at all.

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  16. So, a year+ of 'Salmond, trans, sturgeon, civil war, Salmond, trans, sturgeon, civil war, female willies this and that'....

    ..and the polls huvnae changed a jot. All parties pretty much exactly where they were a year ago.

    Seems to me unionists need to try something different.

    Ok, no, don't do that. Just continue with 'Salmond, trans, sturgeon, civil war, Salmond, trans, sturgeon, civil war, female willies this and that'....

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  17. Faculty of Advocates now attacking unionists for trying to imply James Wolfe / the CPS are somehow in Sturgeon's pocket and that Salmond is really a criminal, even though he was found innocent.

    http://www.advocates.org.uk/news-and-responses/news/2021/feb/importance-of-maintaining-confidence-in-judicial-system-and-rule-of-law

    “The Faculty wishes to remind all concerned of the importance of maintaining confidence in the judicial system and in the rule of law. Maintaining that confidence requires, amongst other things, recognition of the importance of the independent role of the Lord Advocate, the independent role of the courts and, perhaps most importantly, the vital place of the verdicts of impartial juries in criminal proceedings.

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    1. Got a feeling the part about reminding folk about maintaining confidence in the verdicts of impartial juries might be partly directed toward the FM who yesterday did a “I know he was found innocent but.....”. I know she is under huge pressure from all angles but appearing to question the outcome of a verdict is not a good look for her to be offering.

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    2. His QC stated during the trial that he regretted some of his behaviour in the past, nothing illegal, he wasn't a saint which he acknowledges. At the end of the day he was found not guilty by the jury. Which is fine. At the end of the day we want to find who started to orchestrate the action against him that caused the flawed Government action. It certainly was not the present FM.

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    3. Unknown is that you Grizebard or maybe it is Terence. It's the sort of uninformed crap you guys would post. You are like Smearer Skier - you don't have a bloody clue.

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    4. The First Minister of Scotland on live TV on successive days rubbishing the verdict of a jury in a criminal trial and taking the side of the false accusers and people posting on this site see nothing wrong with this. Unbelievable - you are like the moonies. It would be bad enough if it was any criminal trial but when you take into account who the accusers were it is like something from a Hollywood movie. A horror movie.

      At least some people in the legal profession have the courage to speak out.

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  18. On the polling I would be worried by such a tiny 52/48 lead at this stage in the game, given Boris is such a great recruiter for independence. For one thing very little unionist ammunition has yet been fired, very few anxieties raised and I sense the split in the SNP is only just beginning to register with the broader public. Taking the 3% margin of error, this is pretty well a tie. (Just to clarify my own position I am a former No voter so disgusted by Brexit and the way Scotland has been treated that I am a tentative Yes voter while still being a bit uncertain. But on this polling at this stage I now feel far from certain independence is on the cards).

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    1. To be fair the 3% goes both ways. It could be a tie or it could be that there has been next to no movement in the polls.

      There is an immense amount of negative coverage of the Salmond case inquiry. However, the evidence ends next week and while the inquiry will undoubtedly highlight procedural errors I'm not sure there will be a majority on the committee to go beyond that. Obviously, Fraser, Vole-Hamilton and Baillie will want Sturgeon burned at the stake but they have wanted that for the last decade. Only a year ago Unionists were wetting themselves with excitement over Salmond going to jail and Sturgeon being implicated in covering for him. The wheels came off that so now the same Unionists are pinning their hopes on Salmond causing damage by seeking redress for what he sees as betrayal. I can understand that to a degree but I think his anger is blinding him to the zeitgeist that is Me Too. I can't see how such serious allegations could have gone anywhere but the police...they should have never even have been near a grievance process in the first place.


      However, with less on the inquiry, vaccines picking up as supplies increase and lockdown easing as we approach the election a majority is certainly possible (although nothing is guaranteed in politics). From there an independence referendum is winnable.

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    2. Commentators saying that the Scottish government constitutes a failed State or a banana republic without the bananas doesn't disappear next week.

      That stuff is forever.

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  19. An independence supporter gets 6 months in jail for naming alphabet women on twitter.

    This is Sturgeons Scotland. It doesn't make me proud or happy. You?

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    1. Do you think independence supporting views put you above the law?

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    2. Donald Mc Gregor - my answer to your question is no.

      Two questions for you.

      1. Does this happening make you proud or happy?

      2. Are the leaders of the SNP above the law?

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  20. That tiny lead fro Indy is symptomatic of the SNPs failure to promote Scots Indy in any way. It should be at least a 20 point lead with Johnson and the nasty brand Tories in charge in London. Sturgeon and her anti Indy cult must go!!!

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  21. If Sturgeon is just an innocent bystander as some would have you believe then why did she not welcome the judgement of the jury and ask Salmond to rejoin the party. Why has she attacked him and on live tv questioned the validity of the jury verdict. The reason is she is furious her plot has failed and, of course, the alphies are all part of her gang.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you in need of your meds, or just naturally mental ?

      You offer a fat ZERO to this 'discussion' other than smears, then call others 'smearers' .

      Salmond is making a fool out of himself here, frankly.

      He has a legitimate point, the continued identity protections to the accusers is wrong.

      He was found not guilty, yet everyone knows he was accused of serious crimes (and some frankly ridiculous non crimes).

      Even after being cleared, nobody gets to know his false accusers identity.

      Women have laws named after them to protect them from nutters, yet innocent men are named and (wrongly)
      shamed, publically.

      Now, if Salmond had went after THAT issue, he would have a case, but no, he is attacking people who have done him no harm.

      And sorry, his word is NOT 'evidence'to be blindly believed.

      Salmond had a jury to thank for not doing what he is trying to do himself, create guilt by smear.

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  22. Well said Gordon. Nicola can wrap this up on Wednesday, then onwards and upwards for Scottish Independence.

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  23. If only Scotland was an Independent State, it could deal with government corruption.

    Just wow

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