I only caught the last few seconds of that, but it sounded like Nicola Sturgeon has firmly chosen the Andrew Wilson magical thinking approach of "persuade and the obstacle will somehow vanish by some unspecified means"? If so, I have to be honest and say that's a mistake.— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) January 31, 2020
Rule No 1: It is impossible, literally *impossible* to be sure of a win before a referendum is called. The really big changes in public opinion (in whatever direction they occur) will happen once the campaign is underway.— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) January 31, 2020
Compared to the 2014 campaign, 51-49 is in "beyond wildest dreams" territory as a starting point. Are we really waiting for unachievable levels of support (like 60% or 67%) before doing anything? If so, the leadership have given up on independence. They just don't know it yet.— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) January 31, 2020
You're missing the point. If we're "learning the lesson from David Cameron" that polls can be wrong, that's an argument for saying we shouldn't call a referendum even if we're 20, 30, 40 points ahead. In other words we can never do it.— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) January 31, 2020
Oh for heaven's sake. There's nothing "illegitimate" about legislating for a referendum and then allowing the Supreme Court to decide whether it can take place.— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) January 31, 2020
Her tone was entirely off caution is fine (up to a point) if you sound convincingly like trying to push things forward. Nicola missed the target today.— Chris ward (@rampitchfork) January 31, 2020
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I have more analysis of yesterday's sensational YouGov poll in an article at The National - you can read it HERE.