Thursday, January 30, 2020

Drama as YouGov poll shows a pro-independence majority

The first post-election poll on independence has been published, and it suggests that the long-anticipated (but highly elusive) swing to Yes by Remainers who voted No in 2014 may have finally taken place on a really telling scale.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (YouGov, 22nd-27th January 2020):

Yes 51% (+7)
No 49% (-7)

Bear in mind that YouGov have in recent years been one of the most No-friendly firms, so it shouldn't be assumed that 51% is as good as it's going to get for Yes - it's conceivable that other firms will show something a little better, but we'll have to wait and see.  On the other hand, the 7% swing to Yes may be a touch exaggerated, because the previous YouGov poll looks very much like an outlier in retrospect - it showed a sharp dip in the Yes vote that wasn't picked up by other pollsters.  But it seems highly probable that YouGov's new numbers are reflecting some sort of genuine swing on the ground - 49% was the highest Yes vote they reported last year, and they haven't shown an outright Yes lead since 2015.

An intriguing supplementary question attempts to measure the depth of both support for and opposition to independence, and finds that absolutely definite Yes and No voters are tied on 35% apiece.  For my money that's a highly encouraging finding, because there's always a danger that a sudden swing might be based on rather shaky foundations.  That doesn't appear to be the case here - there's no longer any underlying 'natural majority' for No.

The unionist parties will of course ignore the headline result on independence and point to the finding that a majority are opposed to holding an independence referendum this year.  But the snag is that 44% are in favour of holding a referendum within the next five years (ie. within the next Holyrood parliamentary term) and only 39% are opposed.  With Don't Knows excluded, that's a pro-referendum majority of around 53% to 47%.  Given that the Tory government take the extremist and ludicrous line that no referendum can be held until after Nicola Sturgeon's death (which could potentially mean another fifty years of delay!), it's safe to say that the public are a lot, lot closer to the SNP's view on referendum timing than they are to the Tories' view.

Thoughtful Scottish Tory MSPs (if such a thing exists) will be deeply concerned that this poll shows they are about to make an error of historic proportions by confirming Jackson Carlaw as their official leader.  It looks like he can't be absolved of blame for the election disaster last month - he has a dismal net personal rating of -29, which is 29 points worse than Nicola Sturgeon's and almost as bad as Richard Leonard's.  (Yes, it's that bad.)

From a personal point of view, I breathed a sign of relief when I read through the list of questions that YouGov asked.  As you know, this blog will be publishing a poll in the very near future, and I was slightly concerned that there might be a significant amount of overlap between YouGov's questions and the ones that I asked.  But as it turns out, there's no real duplication at all, except on the independence question itself.  (Unless of course YouGov have a second batch of questions that they haven't released yet, but time will tell.)

77 comments:

  1. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/01/30/scottish-independence-yes-leads-remainers-increasi

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  2. That's quite a swing from the worst Yes pollster (recently).

    Given MORI was 50Y/50Y and Survation 49Y/51N around the same time, I wonder what these look like.

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    1. I'll be raising a wee toast tae Boris and the brexiters (GWC included) the morn's nicht.

      They've done so much for the cause. I'm not sure we would have broken the 50% barrier without them.

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  3. Surprise, there is still sane people in the world!

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    1. Before brexit too.

      Trust in Sturgeon rising rapidly as the big day approaches.

      Johnson really unpopular due to his racist hatred of Scots and no Section 30.

      Thinking about the current debate over Scotland's future, how much do you trust the statements and claims made by the following people?
      Nicola Sturgeon
      46(+4)% Trust
      46(-6)% Don't trust
      NET = 0 Trust

      Boris Johnson
      18% Trust
      71% Don't trust
      NET = -53% Trust

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  4. The *BORIS* thinks it clever to loudly bluster and condescend to demeaning Scotland every Wednesday, but his obnoxious Anglo-triumphalism is working agin him.
    The Bullingdon Bully is his own worst enemy, and with "Union" Jack snivelling at his heel, the colony of Scotland will finally be free.

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  5. The "Three Amigo's"---- Jaikie, Lenny and Wee Wullie have registered such low recognition, poor positivity ratings and public disinterest that explains why they are petrified to ask Scots to decide their own future.
    But hiding behind Boris will only delay the inevitable--like being feart to go to school when you are due the belt.

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  6. Not bad considering lack of SNP action or any attempt to address the shortcomings of the last ref campaign. Imagine where we'd be now if some serious work had been done on this, 5 wasted years in my view

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  7. 49 years and under:
    65% Yes
    35% No

    The UK has no future.

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    Replies
    1. 51% Yes main poll numbers don't include 16-17 yo either.

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    2. There's a graphic on WoS that indicates it was 1,039 Scots aged 16+.

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    3. In the tables, the youngest tabulated group is stated as '18-24'.

      https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/cqi01wjj1n/Internal_ScotIndependence_200129.pdf

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    4. Unionist Media BDSM Club -- Free Entry for DomJanuary 30, 2020 at 7:21 PM

      That's good to hear. 52-48 is a fine place to kick on from.

      Were EU voters included in this poll? If not, we might be closer to 53-47.

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    5. It does look to me like this was a poll of over-16s. They probably just didn't bother including the 16-17 subsample in the datasets.

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  8. Just completed a Panelbase poll - was it yours James?

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  9. The reluctance to have an indy ref this year is interesting but perhaps easily explained. It could be simply that many intending YES voters just want to be sure we win this time. Afyter all, the trends toward support for independence are unlikely to reverse - some folk may just want to wait to make sure. :)

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  10. Scots were out on the streets in Glasgow today shopping etc and so on and no sign of riots. 11 pm GMT 31 January 2020 and Scotland will be free from the EU Empire. Welcome back MSPs and the Govan Job Centre is waiting for youz and £70 quid a week but you need to job seek. Your champagne lifestyles are over.

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    1. Has anyone ever hinted that you might be the Eddie The Eagle of political posting?

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    2. Is that a compliment?

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  11. Knickerless could not bring herself to blame the English for the closure of the A83. We can rest and be thankful.

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    Replies
    1. Have a drink to celebrate Scots now supporting independence thanks to brexit.

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    2. I will have a drink for any issue whether or not I agree with it. I am Scottish and not an Irish navvie like yourself.

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    3. You sound like you've already had the drinks. Quite a bucket.

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    4. There's a big party tomorrow night at mine celebrating majority support for Scottish independence. Loads of Irish and Europeans coming along.

      Johnson is guest of honor. He's the man. Took us over the line with a whopping 7% swing. That and he's officially kicked off reunification of course. New border in the Irish see is just day away now.

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  12. Genuine question...

    Why when Scots complain about Westminster - the 'British' Parliament - they're accused of being 'anti-English', yet when the English complain about Westminster, they're not accused of being 'anti-Scottish' (or anti-Welsh / N. Irish...)?

    Is this because:
    A. Westminster isn't really British, but is actually English, ergo the Scots are right to complain
    B. The English are racist toward Scots (and the Welsh / N. Irish), hence the former believe they are allowed to complain but the latter should shut it
    C. A combination of both

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    1. Why do Scottish Nationalist numpties want to be run from Berlin and its satellite Brussels?

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    2. Mainly to trigger simps such as yourself.

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    3. Thought you had died in your bed in agony.

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  13. It has been a long time coming but we will soon finally FEEL the effect of leaving the EU, for many the sense of loss, and Unionist Remainders waking up to the cold hard reality of being abandoned, of being politically homeless, of losing the ability to be both UK and EU. It will be interesting to see how many will however reluctantly take another look at independence.

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  14. The silence of the Remain Unionist parties is deafening. Where us the defiance, the start of the fightback?

    In 2014 no one thought indy was over, just round one, or awaiting the (non) delivery of the Vow.

    But on the Remain side, silence from the Unionist parties. But a few indy curious in England, saying good luck to Scotland
    ...

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    Replies
    1. No case for the union either. Nothing.

      The only response is stand there staring at their feet while an aggressive foreign neighbour attempts to overrule Scottish elections and colonise their country.

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  15. Stu Campbell must be greetin into his glass of milk. His plan doesn't seem to be working. And he'll be ready to publish his next article tomorrow, whichever way it goes, to get his SNP / independence Baad shite across.

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  16. Anyone care about the SCON leadership drama? I'd assumed there's no way even they could be damaged enough to elect Michelle Ballantyne, but Carlaw does appear to be rather shiteing it

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    Replies
    1. Good to see Jackboot and Whisky girl knocking lumps out o' each other...lol

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    2. Anyone want to briefly summarise the political differences between the two? if any?

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    3. It's hard to be sure because the media has mainly focussed on their bitching about each other, but my impression is that Michelle hates poor people more

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    4. The crazy woman always looks like she downed a barrel if booze the night before. Has she a drink problem?
      The man with the fat face looks similar.

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  17. A lot of hot air on 'the other blog' about confused opinions on referendum dates being harbingers of all sorts of disasters and betrayals.
    FFS it's a hypothetical, tactical question. Ask the spear schiltrons at Bannockburn - 'right lads to you want to attack their left flank, or their right flank or let them break themselves coming to us ?' Would a huge majority have made the right choice ? It's a stupid question to ask unless your real purpose is to sow doubt and confusion.
    As far as it goes the poll is good news.
    Brexit is coming and a dozen uk crises with it. Keep cool and keep pushing. The time will come !

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  18. Hey ScotsIrish Skier, looks like you weren't the only one to acquire a nice shiny new passport recently...

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/30/brexit-730000-britons-acquired-non-uk-eu-irish-passports-since-2016

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    Replies
    1. Mass emigration of foreign/EU workers, every brit that can applying for an EU passport, a new border down the Irish sea, and a majority of Scots backing independence sums up well the success of brexit so far.

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  19. Alt Clut,

    The Battle of Falkirk is a better comparison. George Murray refused to let the cavalry loose to massacre the English army as it retreated pell mell back up the road to Edinburgh, partly because there was a significant number of Scottish Yoons on the English side and he hated civil war.
    The defeated troops he refused to massacre constituted 80% of the English army at Culloden a few months later.

    Never lose your moment. And never waste time thinking about reconciling the Yoons.

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    1. The Battle at Culloden sorted out the Clans and Italian/French/ Irish Catholic alliance against the Union. Amusing to see a statue of Charlie in the Vatican.

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  20. In fitba terms we're grindin oot a result. We'll take the points just the same.
    Meanwhile the'scottish' Tories are tearing oot each others throats over whether losing more than half their MP's was a 'result' or a disaster..

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  21. Stu has lost the plot. Shame as he was a very good analyst. Now obsessed with tearing the SNP apart. I think the referendum bill receiving Royal consent is a game changer. It means it's law. Is Boris going to tell his queen to go away??

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    1. Hmmm, is it worth a look? I thought he lost the plot ages ago. Or is it new levels of plot-losing? Does it involve genitalia?

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  22. @GWC You're always commenting on here, spouting your pish, calling independence supporters jock natsis but, the only Scottish people I ever see signalling the Nazi salute is your brethren, the House-Jock, Yoon-flag waving bigots, intent on causing as much violence and alarm as possible.

    I think we all know that you are on the wrong side of the argument pal!

    Hence forth, I dub thee 'Nazi House-Jock' and I hope that my brethren begin any reply to you with said moniker!

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    1. You clearly put a lot of thought into that however as a cross dresser I prefer to be called Daphne the Soviet Spy in Holyrood alias Eck.

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    2. Nazi House-Jock with no input of any value yet again. An intellectually stunted Yoon consumed by his own bigotry.

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  23. To the "Nazi House-Jock". Formerly known as GWC, or Billy Boy,
    I guess you and your lady wife might be starting to think of shipping out to your spiritual home.
    Like the 15% or so of Loyalists who retreated back to GB when them Yanks, eh Bill, after 1783, took them to a match win. Yorktown, oh dear, ach well, never mind. Did yea know that George III wrote a letter of resignation when the dust was settling. Mibee Mrs. Tupperware, who I would you would lick the feet off, will dae the same a wee bit in the oor future.

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    1. I appreciate and have some respect for your great loss of losing your EU masters later tonight. You will have to find some other cocks tae suck loser.

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  24. "Nazi House-Jock".
    Why don,t you just fuck right off, you Loyalst f**** toady.

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  25. Jean Claude ma baws JunkherJanuary 31, 2020 at 12:48 AM

    I Vill still be around for you jocks tae suck ma boabie when I defeat the Englanders in negotiations. Your vimmin just love our EU accents. They drap their drawers when I talk.

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  26. You Scottish people need the EU you could not run a piss up in a German Keller.

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  27. The back and forth between GWC and the people he succeeds in riling up is execrable as usual.

    It does make me think seriously though: what will happen IF Scotland does become independent to the most strongly British-inclined? There's a subset of the Scottish population with a genuine and huge emotional attachment to being British (this overlaps, but not exactly, with the loyalists or strong protestants). Indeed, you might go so far as to argue that the strongest British-identified amongst them are more strongly emotionally identified with the UK than the strongest Indy supporters are with Scotland...

    So if Yes wins solidly (57% or so) what do these people do? Do they leave and move to England or Northern Ireland? Do they stay and make trouble? Do they collapse into a depressive state for the rest of their lives? Is there anything Yes supporters can do to try and reach out to them? Are there any historical parallels? (Ireland after partition, ex-Yugoslavia, USSR, any former colonial society?)

    Intelligent comments welcome from all, even the trolls, go on let your mask slip for once.

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    1. Polls suggest that their centre of gravity is located in the more senior end of voting spectrum - more Jim Sillars than Mairi Black. To be hopeful this means their influence will dwindle and fall away after indy.

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    2. As in any civic society when a side loses at the ballot box as in the recent UK election the losers just have to move on and accept the result . So the Remainers in England will just have to get used to the idea. However us Scots as a nation State have repeatedly rejected the direction taken by Westminster.So even if Indyref2 is won even by 50% +1 the unionists quite frankly will have to accept that. Most Scots have an open inclusive welcoming attitude.People like GWC and his bigoted friends i fear will never change. I have booked my night in Edinburgh and going to the pro EU/Indyref2 rally at Holyrood

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    3. Generally unionists just get on with their lives post indy. However the EU ref has changed things. Post a yes, vote it will be completely acceptable to continue to argue not to leave the union during the deal negotiations.

      My opposition to 'yes' is purely economic, I'm part of majority who thinks that indy will not make Scotland economically better off. If the Scot Gov manage to convince me that it will become economically better off then i will vote yes. If they don't then I will vote no, and will continue to argue against indy post a yes vote, through the negotiation up until the day that Scotland actually leaves. Just as I did during and post the EU ref.

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    4. 100 years ago in 1920 only 26% of Scotlands revenues were spent in Scotland. Do you really think they have stopped ripping us off.

      In 1900 only 29% of Scotlands revenues were spent in Scotland.

      In 1909 a massive 49% of Scotlands revenue was spent in Scotland - WOW

      In 1917 back down again to 17% of Scotlands revenues spent in Scotland.

      Westminster has been making Scotland economically worse off for a long time - why vote for it to continue. It is an abusive relationship and only the weak or misinformed would vote for such a realtionship to continue.

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    5. "Generally unionists just get on with their lives post indy"

      Yes, this is exactly what happened post 2014. Indy supporters just got on with their lives. There was no trouble, no violence (only from some unionists).

      Some unionists may campaign for re-joining the union, and would be free to do so. The only difference would be however, is that this decision would not be Scotland's alone, but that of England and Wales (N. Ireland will have reunified) too. Maybe just England's if Wales decides to follow Scotland and NI.

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    6. If the Scot Gov manage to convince me that it will become economically better off then i will vote yes. If they don't then I will vote no, and will continue to argue against indy post a yes vote, through the negotiation up until the day that Scotland actually leaves. Just as I did during and post the EU ref.

      In such an eventuality, would you see yourself campaigning to rejoin the Union?

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    7. if there is an economic case for rejoining the union then of course i would.

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  28. Everyone, please call me 'Nazi House-Jock" from now on as it's the most apt description of me there has ever been.

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    1. Sorry but once a low life Britnat turd always a Britnat turd.

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  29. If an entire UK nations (even 2 of these based on NI polling) wants to leave the UK, you can completely understand why the exit gates are crammed with foreign skilled workers emigrating en masse.

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  30. Well guys, Yes has won. Today marks a new dawn. Unionism has collapsed. Unable to justify itself at all now, it has thrown in the towel ('No Section 30'), admitting complete defeat in the Y/N debate. Unionism no longer has a case for itself. Nothing to offer at all. So it has dropped out of the fight.

    It is now not indy Scot vs union Scot, but Scotland vs England. The fight the nats can never lose.

    And so, like night follows day, Scots swing en masse to backing full independence 'tomorrow, no questions asked, plan free, you don't need a campaign or white paper, we are ready!'.

    A day for celebration as a new independence dawn is breaking for our nation.

    65% Yes / 35% No in the under 49s, and these people making a greater % of the electorate every day in an utterly unstoppable manner. The UK is utterly fucked. It's over.

    As the old saying goes, 'no racist English fascist shite will stand in the way of the march of a nation'.

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  31. Tonight we return the gesture, and sing to our neighbours and friends (unlike England, which would take away our vote / parliament / freedom), for we shall 'tak a cup o' kindness yet' with them again for auld lang syne.

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  32. Niall January 31, 2020 at 5:32 AM

    The back and forth between GWC and the people he succeeds in riling up is execrable as usual.
    Ach, Niall, most of it is just banter. Eh GW.

    How many will go, or stay. American War of Independence.
    It,s though around 30% were Loyalists, they were contained by the Americans and had no impact, indeed the Brits were very disappointed at the poor response, they thought they had a fifth column of Quislings. Did,nt happen. After peace, a small percentage returned, 15% ish, it is thought, returned to GB.
    The one I get a good laugh at is Flora MacDonald, you know, Bonnie Prince Charlie escaping the Government troops disguised as her maid, Betty Burke. Anyway, after many travails, she and her husband, who was an officer in the Brit Army, went to the Carolinas, appear to have purchased an estate.
    So hostilities commence, husband raises a militia of 1000 men, for the Brits, promptly gets beaten, taken captive, eventually release.
    Finally end up back in Angleterre, having lost everything.

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    1. I think many of them (loyalists) that could not stomach american independence actually migrated north to Canada. Some of course just accepted the change and got on with their lives (and never looked back)!

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  33. After peace, a small percentage returned, 15% ish, it is thought, returned to GB.
    Should have said, 15% of the 30%.

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  34. Good to hear Sturgeon confirming that a referendum without Westminster approval would be illegal and illegitimate.

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    1. That's not at all what she said though.

      Out of interest, have you ever told the truth to anyone in your life? How does it feel to lie day in and day out? These all must blur into one, and and you never really know that the truth is any more.

      Note also a majority of Scots support indy. You've lost.

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  35. well I am now screaming inside. no drama, no fuss, just 'be patient' while we start to tell people that independence will be a good thing. I'm beginning to feel as I always feel when dealing with lawyers in business, and that is not a good thing. Once I have stopped screaming I may weep.

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  36. It cost the taxpayer 15.85 million for the Nat sis to have their Scottish referendum 2014. All this simply to indulge in their racist anti English project. The Nat sis probably think that crawling to the EU will save the economy when they screw it up. Remember Greece Nat si bhoys it is only the poor and working class who suffer in a recession.

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    1. Thanks to Boris, everyone knows it is the English that hate Scots. It's the only explanation for no Section 30.

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  37. Knickerless has just said that there will be a profound sadness for many of us across the UK. The wee EU crawler did not say Scotland.

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  38. A couple of questions James:

    What's the trend in the U65 group from the previous YG poll?
    What's the level of support in those voters who were born in Scotland (if asked)?

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