Thursday, June 28, 2018

Anguish for mystery man Leonard as Scottish Labour slump to THIRD in new Panelbase poll

Tonight has seen the publication of a new full-scale Scottish poll, conducted by Panelbase and commissioned by Wings Over Scotland.  Funnily enough, I had advance warning this was coming, because one of the poll's respondents sent me some of the questions the other day, and I couldn't think of anyone else but Wings who would commission a political poll that included supplementary questions about the Old Firm and Wee Ginger Dug!

So far we only have the headline voting intention numbers for Westminster and the Holyrood constituency ballot...

Scottish voting intentions for the next Westminster general election:

SNP 38% (n/c)
Conservatives 27% (n/c)
Labour 25% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Greens 2% (n/c)

Scottish Parliament voting intentions (constituency ballot):

SNP 41% (+1)
Conservatives 27% (-1)
Labour 22% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
Greens 2% (n/c)

The eagle-eyed among you will already have spotted that the percentage changes listed above are different from the ones listed in the Wings article.  That's because I'm using the standard approach of comparing with the last poll conducted by the same firm, whereas Wings states that he's comparing the Holyrood numbers to a much earlier poll from last December, and comparing the Westminster numbers to the result of the general election a year ago.

When the last Panelbase poll came out a couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that I was a little startled that it showed Labour's Westminster vote holding up, and indeed that it showed Labour moving from third into joint second - which flatly contradicted what looked like a highly significant Labour slump in the most recent YouGov poll.  The YouGov direction of travel seemed intuitively much more plausible, because it was in line with the Labour-to-Tory swing witnessed in Britain-wide polls in recent months.  Tonight's poll may go some way towards solving the mystery, because it shows Labour slipping back in both Westminster and Holyrood ballots.  It could be that the last Panelbase poll overstated Labour a tad due to normal sampling variation, and that what we're seeing tonight is closer to the true picture.  That said, Labour are only just behind the Tories in Westminster voting intentions, whereas YouGov suggested a slightly bigger gap of four points.

Although tonight's poll and the previous one from Panelbase were only conducted two weeks apart, something very significant happened in the intervening period - ie. the SNP walkout in response to the power-grab.  Superficially, then, it looks like that eye-catching moment was not an immediate game-changer, although I would argue that the real value of it was in hardening and motivating the SNP's core vote.  That's something that doesn't necessarily show up in headline poll numbers, but could make a huge difference in any snap general election.  The SNP's biggest problem last year was not so much voters drifting off to Labour or the Tories, but rather SNP voters just not turning out at all.

Having said that, the SNP's Holyrood vote has crept up by one point, which although not statistically significant leaves open the possibility that the power-grab issue has caused some small movement in the SNP's favour.

Rather than fretting about the lack of any major SNP bounce over the course of June, I think we'd be better off reflecting on just how admirably the SNP's vote has held up over the year - and, incredibly, it is now a whole year - since the general election.  Given the hysterical post-election narrative in the media, you might well have expected some kind of anti-Nat bandwagon effect that could have led to Labour quickly reclaiming their traditional place as the dominant party of Scottish politics, at least as far as Westminster voting intentions are concerned.  But they haven't even come close to doing that.  There have now been twelve full-scale Scottish polls since last June, and nine of them have given the SNP a higher vote than the 37% achieved at the general election.  (No poll has put the SNP lower than 36%.)  If tonight's numbers are to be believed, the SNP's lead over the Tories has increased from 8 points to 11 since the election, and their lead over Labour has increased from 10 points to 13.  Given the large number of ultra-marginal constituencies in Scotland, that would be more than enough to produce a significant number of SNP seat gains from the two main unionist parties.

39 comments:

  1. Richard Leonard may be a mystery man to most people in the country, but from my point of view he's doing a great job.

    Keep it up, Richard. Whoever you are.

    Ruth Davidson's bright future seems well behind her, but Willie Rennie must be thrilled his Liberals have soared to 7%.

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    1. Yes indeed, let us hope the unionist parties keep producing this standard of political weightlessness...

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    2. You jocknatsis

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    3. What a dick.

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    4. Yeh. 9 inches. What a beauty.

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    5. You got it in the Yarrow, old chap.

      Under the bough, of the Salix fragilis.

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    6. Kylie Drnovsek-ZorkoJuly 3, 2018 at 7:47 PM

      You seem sinister.

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    7. Are you, trying to win 'Scrabble'?

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    8. Kylie Drnovsek-ZorkoJuly 5, 2018 at 2:21 PM

      No. I'm from Slovenia and appeared in 3D on University Challenge. Kylie is just my camp name. Oooer!

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    9. Ooer, sounds like the real McCoy.

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  2. Is it likely that the reason the SNP hasn't shot up after the power grab, due to many of the Yes/SNP voters, now being Leave and potentially voting Tory? Therefore they don't mind it to get Brexit done?

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  3. The poll is reassuring. The SNP vote is firming up and there may well be more to come. While some SNP vote may have voted Leave a lot of Labour and soft Tory vote voted Remain. There is much to play for and with some notable No voters now saying that a Scotland in Europe is preferable to a UK outside Europe the future is wide open (as the Late Tom Petty noted).

    The walk out certainly had a dramatic effect on our local branch. Our branch numbers have increased by about 15% within a week and there are still people joining. We held a street stall last weekend and we had people asking us for membership forms and we gave out 14. That is a lot for one stall in one wee town. So the walk out may not have affected the polls massively yet but I think James is right, it has galvanised the support out there. Our biggest enemy in 2017 was voter weariness and apathy not Ruth Davidson.

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    1. You jocknatsis

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    2. You Jane

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    3. That's a great number for a small town. If the same is happening everywhere, that's good news. Congratulations!

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  4. Gladdens my heart this one,I still have hopes of seeing an independent Scotland.I still wonder why its so difficult for some to want to be independent after all that is what England was voting for with Brexit or so many of them had said.We should give these people what they want their country back I heard it said so many times they want England out of the EU.

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  5. brexit reality and a likely bad or no deal will have to shake businesses and the general public too. by the way i am in spain just now and i was appalled to see the brit nat newspapers in Torreveija's Iceland Overseas store. the Sun, Express and Mail led the disgraceful display slagging the Germans for going out the world cup in ways that i considered stepped over the line, take glee in germans ext one said, another showed faulty towers german salutes and nazi displays to try and mock Germany'exot and ones headlines stating boldly that "the BRITISH public will definitely not shed a tear as Germany go" And now i have to ask the question again why should Scots support England in the world cup to be part of this hateful display towards one of our European Neighbours.

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  6. You just love the pretend socialist Jock Natz Party. They hate everyone now not just the English.

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    1. ..specially the Swede's, Namibian's and Paki's. Jocko nat sis jealous of there diddly pop's.

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    2. You just want to jock yer latte up Scotty Poppers natsis, dirty, lazy scrounging jocks.

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    3. you jocknatsis

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    4. If that is what you think of Scotland why won't you let us leave.

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    5. Please do leave. You Scottish just hate the fact that we English have large willies and attract your excuse for women. Your Scottish men are so drunken poisoned dwarfs and cannot get it up.

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    6. Seek professional help. Immediately.

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    7. Scrotum Maximus SmellyJune 30, 2018 at 5:43 PM

      I did and joined the SNP.

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    8. Evidence? Where's your evidence?

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  7. I call my diddly pop The Love Rocket.

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    Replies
    1. The Love Rocket grows when I think of you in yor leather gear. Grunt.

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