Monday, May 21, 2018

Earl of Dumbarton ROCKED by new SHOCK poll that suggests monarchy could be DOOMED

There's a new poll out today that has a bit of something for everyone - republican-minded Yessers are delighted that it shows only a minority of the Scottish public are in favour of retaining the monarchy, whereas the unionist side are claiming it shows opposition to independence.  You won't be surprised to hear, though, that not everything is quite as it seems.

First things first: this is not an independence poll.  If you want to know whether people think Scotland should be an independent country, you ask "Should Scotland be an independent country?", or use very similar wording.  If you turn the question on its head and ask whether Scotland should remain part of the United Kingdom, you tend to get a slightly different result.  That may seem inexplicable, but there are lots of people in the middle who aren't really that bothered one way or the other, and who have a different instinctive reaction depending on how the question is framed.  What makes this poll even less meaningful is that it isn't even about Scotland specifically - it asks about whether the union of four nations should continue in roughly its current form.  If you're a voter with no particularly strong view about Scottish independence, it's highly unlikely that you would give a negative answer to that question.  You would feel like you were tearing someone else's house down because of your uncertainty about where the best interests of your own country lie - ie. just one country out of the four.  You'd have to be a very committed Yesser to reply in that way - and as it happens a healthy enough 30% did so.  A further 18% declined to give a view.

Apologies to any disappointed unionists, then, but this poll does not show an increase in opposition to independence.  It's just a practical demonstration of the obvious point that if you ask a different question you get a different answer.  I have no idea what the poll would have shown if it had asked the standard independence question, but it's safe to assume that the Yes vote would have been significantly higher than 30%.  And as has already been pointed out on Wings Over Scotland, another question in the same poll found that 34% of the Scottish public have become less supportive of the union in recent years, and only 20% have become more supportive.  That's the only genuine indication offered by the poll of the direction of travel.

You might be wondering about the credibility of the poll's methodology.  It was conducted by Deltapoll, which is an entirely new outfit and as far as I can see is not yet a member of the British Polling Council.  However, it was set up by two extremely well-known people from the polling industry (Martin Boon and Joe Twyman), so it's unlikely to be a Mickey Mouse operation.  Apparently the sample size in Scotland was around 500, which is large enough to be taken seriously - albeit only just.  The margin of error is therefore a little higher than it would be for a poll of 1000 or 2000 people.

The poll has Westminster voting intention numbers, which annoyingly are only presented with the Don't Knows left in, but a rough recalculation gives the following -

SNP 36%
Labour 29%
Conservatives 24%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Greens 3%
UKIP 1%

Just to reiterate - those figures are only approximate, because they're my own calculation with Don't Knows removed.  Not quite as good for the SNP as some recent full-scale Scottish polls from other firms, but bearing in mind the unusually small sample size, there's certainly no cause for alarm.  Even on these numbers, the SNP would be regaining seats from the Tories.

On the monarchy results, the fact that only 41% of the Scottish public support the monarchy doesn't tell anything like the whole story, because only 28% are actively opposed.  Nevertheless, it would have been unthinkable a few decades ago for the hostile and the uncommitted to have a majority between them, so perhaps the establishment should be a tad concerned.  In view of the other results, no-one can really say that the poll was distorted by having too many Nats in the sample!

Last but not least, the poll found that 54% of respondents regard themselves as primarily or wholly Scottish.  Only 14% regard themselves as primarily or wholly British.  31% feel that they are equally Scottish and British.  That's pretty much in line with what the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has been showing of late.  It remains the case that the independence campaign could win a majority if they persuade people to remove the word "but" from the sentence "I feel Scottish, but..."

146 comments:

  1. I've been away a long time. Which of them is the Earl of Dumbarton? I suppose it must be Chairlie's first-born.

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    1. 2nd born. 'arry, the only english member of the royals.

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  2. To be honest, forgetting polls and everything I'm just glad the FM is talking openly and confidently about independence again and restarting the debate (her words) and on timing, when rather than if.

    Maybe I was being over-paranoid but it had just went quiet on the whole thing and I was starting to get a bit edgy. Yes I know there's the whole waiting for the Brexit deal to crystallise in the autumn thing, but it was really beginning to feel like a lot of SNP folk would rather have preferred noone to bring it up for a while.

    Even as a member I was struck by how quiet things had gone...I joined up post EU referendum and there was loads of emails and links to videos etc., and the same up to the GE2017 and then it went very quiet. I put it down to some sort of a collective crisis of confidence post-GE result (which wouldn't really have been warranted given it was still a very good result in historical terms, just not quite as insanely good as the previous election) - but maybe the real reason is much more humdrum and there simply wasn't the need for that level of contact with all the elections out of the way for a while.

    Slightly concerned on this possibility of an Autumn (October) potential General Election that certain outlets were discussing yesterday, just purely on how that would impact upon everything in terms of timing and uncertainty and sheer kicking the Brexit can yet even further down the road towards March 2019. Seems unlikely that the Tories would go for one willingly, but I can definitely imagine one becoming necessary given the parliamentary mathematics of the situation combined with trying to get key Brexit legislation through, but we'll just have to wait and see I guess.

    Anyway between the FM's comments yesterday plus the Scottish Parliament voting to reject the EU Withdrawal Bill in conjunction with the other non-Tory parties, I feel a bit more upbeat about everything than I have for a wee while.

    Sorry, that turned into a total ramble

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    1. Eh! Non Tories you have to be kiddin.

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    2. Plus. You got too much to say for yorself. Zip it.

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  3. Even if 'we' dump the English royals, they'll still be doun in London toun.
    We juist winna be peyin for them.
    Cash saved to be invested in public services.
    Head of state Post Indy has to give 100% loyalty to Scotland.
    Impossible if we 'share' a monarch with England.
    The new modern Scotland must be democratic from the outset.

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  4. Also is it true Markle had to convert from Catholicism before acceptance into the royal family?
    (As reported by George Galloway)
    Possibly not a reliable source, mind.

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    1. Who cares if someone converts from one fantasy or another. Rumour has it that Gorgeous went from the papacy to Islam.

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    2. He then converted to the ancient Egyptian cult of Bastet: "Might I be the cat?"

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    3. Purr. Lick. Purr.

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    4. Maybe we should be concerned about members of the ancient right-wing libertarian cult of Bastiat.

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    5. That sounds like George "Expenses" Galloway, alright. The nat si enabler.

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    6. Nat sis still quiet. Hungover or drunk. Watching TV wile England works to pay there welfare.

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    7. From what I've heard, Galloway is dead set against independence.

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    8. Angela Merkel? Her father was a Lutheran pastor.

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  5. Has the Dumbarton reference got something to do with Jackie "Lunch Club" Baillie?

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    1. You nat si English hating fash are in limbo and reduced to personal character attacks.

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    2. You would never stoop so low, GWC2, would you?

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    3. Nah I do not do blow jobs or commemt on the physical appearance of an individual. You fascists seem to exceed in this.

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  6. My mistake. If the reference had been to Baillie's Conservative Ladies' Lunch Club, it would have said "Cowal" rather than "Dumbarton". Silly me!

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  7. The Joke Nat sis have suddenly all gone tae bed. Nae arguments, nae policies. Close down the actors at Holywood and save money for the public services.

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    1. Still there in bed nat si sleepers? English who you hate are up and working. Paying for you to stay in bed and drink your buckfast iron brew. State a play.

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  8. Polls aren’t too different from the rest of the UK.

    Things seem to be remarkably stable:

    - majority for the monarchy (and it’s SNP policy to retain it)
    - plurality for the SNP as the most popular party
    - majority for unionist parties and for the union

    This hasn’t changed and I can’t see it changing soon. So, we will keep an SNP minority government who won’t want/aren’t mandated to give another independence referendum. More limbo I’m afraid.

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    1. Ha ha, wishful thinking, carry on, it's always good to kid yrself on otherwise it might start to be depressing for you, self delusion knows no bounds when it comes to you Britnats!

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    2. Aye ,Nothing much has changed!
      That's the problem. Two years on from Brexit vote and the UK aka greater England has no credible plan on how to function outside of the EU. Scotland's growth commission shows the way ahead for the foreseeable future.
      Time to repatriate our democracy.
      Bring on Indyref2.

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  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  10. Now that Fat lying bigot Davidson has been exposed as a fat lying bigot and a coward who can't even handle talking to a constituent in public, what chance of her becoming leader of the english conservatives?

    They all dream of another thatcher, but she's outed herself as a blair. A Narcissist and pathological liar.

    I don't think she's really what they're after now that they've all seen the man behind the curtain. And exposed as a fraud by a little dog too!

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    1. Nat si Irish bendover Coabrig knobend bum boy.

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    2. Talking to a constituent is one thing, harrassment is another. Remember Jo Cox!

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    3. Archie Bishop Pope former Child MolesterMay 28, 2018 at 1:50 AM

      She will be forgotten and her man remembered for cheating.

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    4. Constituent: "Hullo. Lovely day."
      Davidson: "I'm a pregnant woman. Stop harassing me."

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    5. Davidson: "I am a very impohtant pregnant woman. I caaan't undehstend plebs. Police! Arrest this buhly men."

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  11. Re George Galloway - on his sputnik programme last night he said that he would "even" support Scottish independence if another Tory government was returned. Massive sea change as he has always been virulently against Scottish independence. Never understood his attitude when compared to his attitude re Ireland/N. Ireland. In my view and for what it's worth it looks like the union is in tatters - not before time!

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    1. Tartan ShortbreidMay 27, 2018 at 11:14 PM

      Gorgeous has the Union in tatters, yawn, is that all you fascists have going for you.

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    2. Madamazelle from arm and tears, parlay vous.
      Its a long way to tip a rarey.
      Tears fall through the years is all you left me.

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  12. Theresa May set to block indyref2 for at least 3 years, according to the Mail on Sunday.

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  13. Except Theresa May would be showing complete disrespect for Holyrood and be treating Scotland like a colony.
    Good luck wi that.

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  14. The Real GWC is BackMay 28, 2018 at 9:23 PM

    Wee knickerless crawlin up ra erse of Barnier what an embarrassing moment for a so called Scottish FM. Did she actually suck his magic lollypop.

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    1. No. I think she just stroked it. Like you and your neighbour.

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  15. Mick Barnier Der FuhrerMay 28, 2018 at 9:44 PM

    The Jocko FM knows how to please a man. We will let you Jockos stay in the EU, new crawlers are always welcome. Pass the wine and cheese.

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  16. Sir Robert Walpole Deceased.May 29, 2018 at 1:14 AM

    The Scottish Natsi fascists are crawling up up to their natural German Nazi home.

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    Replies
    1. He do kinky with bimbo. He do kinky with bimbo. He do kinky with bimbo.

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    2. Herr Groupenfurher Barner - euro tit.

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  17. So much entertainment to be had, leaving the troll talking to itself.

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    1. Are you sure it wasn't rapping?

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    2. More like stream of consciousness gibberish. Still comedy gold when it's reduced to bickering with itself though.

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    3. You anonymous nat sis - shut your f**king legs - there's a draft in here. Hahahahahahaha

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  18. Calton Smoker and BoozebagMay 30, 2018 at 8:59 PM

    The Nat sis are doing away with plastic cups while the polis, rail, Cal Mac the NHS are a shambles.

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    1. Shandies' pslace! Yeh, spoon spoon spoon. Burmese nat sis poofs. Up the Monkees.

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  19. Dinna fash yersel man. Juist stick a Union Jack on it. Mind you they're no easy tae find ootside o the supermerkets. They're being phased oot in Scotland. Make that ASAP.

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    1. Yer bum sore ram!

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    2. Like yor ma was phazed out when yor da got his bum done by Herr Sergio de Gaolle. Vive la Jeremy Thorp.

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    3. Calling security.

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  20. You jock fascists like the holy father ramin it up yer bum ramstam. It is tradition like the child abuse in Scotland.

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  21. So much entertainment to be had, leaving the troll ranting to itself about its various obsessions.

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  22. Bizarre. Like the spoutings of a ouija board only on a keyboard.

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    1. Isn't it just. It's the constant neediness that makes me laugh. I think it must miss regular human contact.

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    2. You shut up. You. The lot of you. Shut up. Nat sis bed wetter bum nobs.

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    3. Move to bloody Norway if you like it that much and you can lick Herr von Doktor Barneir's arse for him. You 'll both love it. Ooooh yes please Mr Barneir I would love another cup of fancy coffee and a bisciut from Italy.

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    4. Snooty shitpot. Nat si snob. You think yer great. Well nobody is interested in your craphound country except knickerless knickerless and he fash fans. Want a slice of me pizza Mister John-Paul Hitler? Ooooh what a lovely Spanish xar.

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  23. The puerile rage is comedy gold. You can almost hear the spluttering.

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  24. Splutter, Knob, Comedy.

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    Replies
    1. dot dot dot.
      not a lot.
      i'm a poet.
      now i show it.

      stick that in your dutch cap and chew it.

      bum stretch nat sis

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  25. and arlene's going to jockland to show them whose who. suck it up, bum stretcher mr barneir

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  26. The more angry and incoherent it becomes, the funnier this is.

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    1. think your the top clever man. arse bandit monseur musollini. switch of the lights wen you move to france. culdnt catch crabs on a glasgow bus

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  27. So much rage and so little thought. This is a mildly amusing diversion.

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  28. Eat pig shit you Wally! Fee fy for fum. Jocko chavs on Jeremy Kyle. Like the rest a you.

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  29. We'll have it housebroken in no time.

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  30. Oh yeh. Like Babs Windsir's flute?

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  31. All this ranting - it's indicative of some very deep-seated psychological issues. Ladies and gentlemen, feel free to speculate.

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  32. Ladies and ladyboys more like. Prancing around pole dancing and trying to get off with real men.

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  33. Notice, ladies and gentlemen, how it deflects with the use of language reflecting profound insecurities.

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    Replies
    1. Get her. Little Miss Bumtit Cleverarse Fannystench.

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  34. Yet another Jockistani who thinks he's cleverer than the rest of us. Please let me sit at your table Senior Barniet. So I can feel impirtant and more classy than the British even though I am a Britisher. Vooley voola champagne. Ooh yes please. Better than tea for me and other Jocko bumboys.

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  35. Deep-seated psychological issues and worrying obsessions.

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  36. The frantic gibberish is hilarious but I'm glad I'm not standing near him/her on an isolated unstaffed station platform. At night. Without CCTV!

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    1. I dunno. Watching it argue with the help point could be entertaining, since it would forget to push the button first. Kind of like what it's now being made to do here...

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  37. Jockistan. Where women look like Les Dawson and men look like Andy Capp. Just as well you v got us to keep the Jean pool ok.

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  38. I have little doubt that its inner life would have made Pasolini blush.

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    1. Whats a sophisticiated jockistani. One who doesnt puke on his bird when he get's a whiff!

      Pasolini. Gasolini. Musollini.

      Why was the Spanish dancer constapated - he coldn't pasadobly!

      Hahahahahahaha.

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  39. What level of desperation causes it to attempt to engage in human contact in this manner? Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is yours.

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  40. Puke your guts up on the floor ladies and ladyboys. Fanny jockosnoot tells you it's yours. Nickerless fash cow is puking now. Nob boys.

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  41. Deep-seated psychological issues on display here. The obsessions it displays are developed in childhood, according to Freud.

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    1. The audience at a jockistani strip tease - "Keep them on"

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  42. I mentioned the source of psychological issues and it brought up, yet again, its sexual obsessions. Interesting.

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    Replies
    1. Gash fud nat si jocko tartan bum bhoys. Ride it out, Jocko!

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  43. Lick my f*uc*king lolly. In your tit!!!!!!!!!

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  44. Nickerless nat si fash tits...
    Like it f+&£king up.
    Jockistan wogs!
    Nickerless bitch. Tit cum.
    Spunk face tash.
    Tarts. Click.

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  45. It's had a full-blown meltdown. That's mildly amusing.

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  46. I cannot claim any credit for breaking it. It was already irreparably damaged.

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    Replies
    1. Sex in a bed. Nickerless fanny. Fash nat si bum bhoys riding.

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  47. Bereft of direct human contact, it resorts to homophobia in a vain attempt to provoke a response. That tells us a great deal about its inner life.

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    1. Ooooh. Bereft. I'm worried. Keep yor nockers on, dearie. Oooh.

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  48. There are entire sections in bookshops that cover the sort of unrelenting misery its upbringing must have been. In Smith's it's painful true stories, in Blackwell's it's psychology.

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  49. Ship ahoy, me hearties. Fun below deck's. A Nony Mous is coming along in drag. Under the captain's table. Grunt!

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  50. Deep-seated psychological issues. Every incoherent rant validates the hypothesis.

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    Replies
    1. You nat sis spy on yor neighbors. Watching them in there garden. Getting in to taxi's and going to other people's house's. Yeh. Sad!

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  51. There's no point in anyone challenging the subject for a link to its latest bewildered ramblings. It'll only result in another ad hominem screech of impotent rage, as it hates being questioned.

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  52. Yor mental. Load's a stupid words.

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  53. The subject, lacking the means to assemble a coherent argument, resorts to its stock-in-trade ad hominem attack.

    So much rage. So little thought.

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  54. My favorite charachter on Captain Pugwash? Ethel Minge and Doctor Nickerless Fanny. Noy yor nat si pals

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  55. The subject continues to display the anticipated behaviours. It may be argued that it has been so thoroughly traumatised that alternatives to ad hominem attacks and childish tantrums are inconceivable.

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    1. Yor a nony mous. squeek squeeek. cheeeeeeeeze pleeeeeze for missus mouse. squeeeeeeeek. cheezy jocko fanny.

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  56. The hypothesis is being proven.

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  57. If I watch through your curtain's I bet I sea load's a jocko nat si creme puffs having a pugwash. Hello missus gash. How's your bat cave? Ooooh Monsieur barneiro of Italy's how you like a my dingo dong

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    1. Every body knows what go's on in your house. We are all laughing about it. We call your house 'Creme Puff Villa".

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  58. Profoundly damaged.

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    Replies
    1. Drofoundly pamaged, as I call it. Hahahaha.

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    2. Freed thrè brirds.
      Trupprence ra brag.
      Trupprence, trupprence, truppeence ra brag.
      Freed thrè brirds.
      Trupprence ra brag.
      Trupprence, trupprence, trupprence ra brag.

      I freelance music. Sorry Dolly - Ri freel mrusrical.

      Between you cant fo that.

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