Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Relearning the oldest truth : voting Tory doesn't produce results for Scotland

I've been having my latest technological meltdown, but 24 hours late, here's a quick note to let you know I have a new article on the TalkRadio website!  You can read it HERE.

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After an insanely long wait, ICM have finally released the datasets from last week's GB-wide poll.  The Scottish subsample figures are: Labour 37%, SNP 32%, Conservatives 23%, Liberal Democrats 3%, Greens 2%, UKIP 2%.  The Labour lead can be partly explained by the fact that respondents who said they would vote SNP were sharply weighted down from 64 to 43 - that may have happened for good reasons, although if we assume YouGov are right that a disproportionate number of SNP-inclined voters simply didn't turn out on June 8th, weighting to past vote recall may start to underestimate the SNP's potential strength.

We've now had seven Scottish subsamples from various firms since the election, with three putting the SNP in the lead, three putting Labour in the lead, and only one putting the Tories in front.  I think all we can say with confidence now is that it looks like a tight three-way battle, and that the Tories probably aren't in first place.  I'm not convinced the Scottish Labour recovery will survive any return to public infighting between the Corbynites and the "moderates", so perhaps that's what we should be keeping the closest eye on.

17 comments:

  1. Labour has no solution for keeping the Tories out of power in Westminster, England votes and that's what we get, whatever it votes.
    Whatever Labour may do in Westminster will be undone the next Parliament. We can keep them out of power in an independent Scotland, no other way, it's that simple.

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    1. The solution is simple people should stop voting for the Tartan Tory con merchants and return to Labour... The punters are now seeing the nat sis for the scum they are... The Yellow does not disguise the Blue.

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    2. (points and laughs)

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  2. How quickly some people forget.
    In my lifetime of almost 7 decades,England has only ever elected a Labour government for one of those decades (I exclude the phoney Blair years).
    So,it would be sensible to conclude that the preference of English voters is for Conservative governance and that Corbyn is just a passing fling whose time will soon pass.
    Any vote for the London based parties is effectively a vote to retain Tory governance of Scottish affairs.
    Younger voters take note.

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  3. Corbyn is a flash in the pan , right place , right time , with a train wreck of a Tory party to contend with they couldn't go far wrong . Come the next election people will have sussed out what a hopeless case Labour really is and they will drift back to the Tory's . who trusts Labour .Remember "there's no money left " that's Labour ,spend , spent spend , they haven't a clue . Thank goodness Scotland has a good alternative to these gangsters , let's support them to the max come the next election !

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  4. Great to be part of Britain on this glorious day
    GSTQ FTP WATP

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  5. .... spoken like a true Socialist, inclusive, working class Scottish individual ..... my arse, you bigoted orange sectarian Tory ponse. you really are a low life and your pre tense of affinity to the Labour party is even more shallow than you.
    I want you to keep spewing your bile for a'body to recognise you for what you really are ...... a covert Tory,as well as a few other titles which would bide easily at hame in your distorted cranium.

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    1. You made the two above comments!

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    2. The troll "GWC2" calls scottish people "jocks", made death threats on this blog while posing as a Yes supporter, advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister.

      I wish a long and healthy life on the troll, long after we're independent.

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    3. You will be pan breid and the Union will continue.

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    4. The troll "GWC2" calls scottish people "jocks", made death threats on this blog while posing as a Yes supporter, advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister.

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  6. Have to admire James how you nat sis make it up as you go along with the impersonators and such..! Anything original to offer in your fascist quest?

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