I've been having my latest technological meltdown, but 24 hours late, here's a quick note to let you know I have a new article on the TalkRadio website! You can read it HERE.
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After an insanely long wait, ICM have finally released the datasets from last week's GB-wide poll. The Scottish subsample figures are: Labour 37%, SNP 32%, Conservatives 23%, Liberal Democrats 3%, Greens 2%, UKIP 2%. The Labour lead can be partly explained by the fact that respondents who said they would vote SNP were sharply weighted down from 64 to 43 - that may have happened for good reasons, although if we assume YouGov are right that a disproportionate number of SNP-inclined voters simply didn't turn out on June 8th, weighting to past vote recall may start to underestimate the SNP's potential strength.
We've now had seven Scottish subsamples from various firms since the election, with three putting the SNP in the lead, three putting Labour in the lead, and only one putting the Tories in front. I think all we can say with confidence now is that it looks like a tight three-way battle, and that the Tories probably aren't in first place. I'm not convinced the Scottish Labour recovery will survive any return to public infighting between the Corbynites and the "moderates", so perhaps that's what we should be keeping the closest eye on.