YouGov have just updated their projection model for what will presumably be the third-last time (I'm guessing there'll be the usual update tomorrow afternoon, and then a final one after the polls close). Again, the news is mixed - the SNP are on 44 seats, which is two lower than yesterday, but two higher than the day before that. And if you look a little closer, the picture seems to be considerably more reassuring than the update of two days ago, because the SNP's floor (the minimum number of seats they'd be expected to win within a 95% confidence interval) now stands at 30 rather than 17. Their ceiling is now 53, which is only one down on yesterday. The most logical conclusion is that there was a particularly good batch of interviews for Labour about three days ago which brought a large number of central belt seats closer to being competitive, but that the threat has receded somewhat since then.
At UK-wide level, the situation is utterly bizarre. The consensus among pundits and "sources" that Labour are set for a pounding tomorrow is growing ever stronger, and you'd think eventually that would start to be reflected in what YouGov are hearing from their respondents. Instead, today's update shows the Tories slipping to yet another new low - just 33 seats ahead of Labour in a hung parliament.
UK-wide seats projection (YouGov) :
Liberal Democrats 12
Plaid Cymru 2
Northern Ireland Parties 18
HUNG PARLIAMENT : Conservatives short by 24, Labour short by 57
Even the Conservatives' ceiling would only put them on 334 seats, which would be an overall majority of just 18 seats (or perhaps 20 after John Bercow is taken into account) - barely any improvement at all on what David Cameron achieved two years ago. I have to say these numbers aren't really passing the smell test, but we'll find out soon enough.