As I noted in my blogpost this morning, a consensus is emerging among the commentariat that the Tories are coasting to victory, and that some opinion polls bear little or no resemblance to what is really happening on the ground. One popular theory is that polls are picking up too many Labour supporters because those people are more enthused, and thus keener to be interviewed. I certainly don't dismiss that consensus out of hand - it may well be entirely right. But when you see an enormous survey of 11,000 people, seemingly bang up-to-date, conducted by a firm that actually didn't perform at all badly in the 2015 election, and it points to the Tories losing their majority, you at least have to take a step back and consider the possibility that there may be two sides to this story.
GB-wide voting intentions (SurveyMonkey) :
Conservatives 42% (-2)
Labour 38% (n/c)
(Other parties' vote shares are not available yet.)
To put SurveyMonkey's limited track-record into perspective, in their final 2015 poll they put the Tories on 34% and Labour on 28%, which meant they slightly underestimated both parties but got the Tory lead almost exactly right. It's possible they may have just got freakishly lucky in that individual poll due to sampling variation, but it has to be said there were hardly any other polls that were so close to being accurate (with the famous unpublished Survation poll being an obvious exception).
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You might be interested in Alasdair Soussi's article on the Al Jazeera website about the battle for Scottish seats at the general election - it features quotes from myself, Simon Pia, Ian Duncan and Professor James Mitchell. You can read it HERE.
We are all hoping that Bluekip will not get a majority. I for one will be more than happy if Corbyn can work with the SNP to get rid of the dictatorship. Fingers crossed
ReplyDeleteWe are all hoping that Bluekip will not get a majority. I for one will be more than happy if Corbyn can work with the SNP to get rid of the dictatorship. Fingers crossed
ReplyDeleteLibDem general election boss reported to fiscal over Holyrood spending
ReplyDeletePOLICE have reported the chair of the Scottish Liberal Democrats' general election campaign to the Crown Office over alleged criminality relating to the 2016 Holyrood election.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15331885.LibDem_general_election_boss_reported_to_fiscal_over_Holyrood_spending/
And not before time!
DeleteI had a look for predictions for Northern Ireland, seeing so much happening here, but can't find anything later than May. it would be interesting too here what is happening there.
ReplyDeleteDup and patriotic sinn fein are at 29 to 28 with interest rising judging by ratings. Seats contested may favour nationalist parties. Have more info if you want.
DeleteDo polling companies deliberately focus attention on party leaders seats? It'd seem a smart thing to do as being able to forecast an unexpected defeat is great advertising.
ReplyDeleteThink I might have taken part in this survey. What happened was I was completing survey totally unrelated to politics and, when I finished, an offer to take part in this one popped up. First survey was for a small and definitely unrepresentative part of population, but if they repeated this for whole range of surveys they could get a reasonable mix.
ReplyDeleteThis is how they do it in usa.
DeleteJust completed my first full YouGov survey on politics for ages... must be bombarding their userbase to inform their final prediction.. (due 10pm)
ReplyDeleteJust wanted to put in some high praise for this site and James's fairly tireless work. The SurveyMonkey poll for example was posted here long before anyone else I could see. It has got to the point where I come here first for my polling news and frankly in this election that is the news we are all feverishly interested in. I also much enjoy the spoof Tabloid headlines while I trust the judgement applied here even where I may disagree with the (honestly expressed) political opinion.
ReplyDeleteI am also interested in the Scottish question not only as an expat living in England but because it is now a very big deal indeed even for non-Scots. Times have changed too. As Expat I posted on this site a lot during Indyref and no doubt annoyed many because I was pro-Union. I must say my position has changed a bit. Given the high-handed Maybot's treatment of Scotland and her enslavement to the extreme right I have nothing but praise for the restraint and dignity of the SNP leaders. And if there was a hard Brexit then the Scots broke away I think I would be cheering them on and applying for my Scottish passport. The right wing of the Tory party is not fit to run any country.
YouGov political polls are like busses... nothing comes along for ages and now 2 in the same day!!
ReplyDeleteIt is hard to believe that all these " newspapers" and tv shows have people who consider themselves journalists and experts while james is out here all alone on a blog putting them to shame. james is the man.
ReplyDelete