Saturday, June 3, 2017

Either this is a rogue poll, or the Tories are now in total meltdown

There will be several polls published tonight, but the one you're about to see may well be the most important of the lot, because the fieldwork was conducted at lightning speed after last night's so-called "debate" between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn.  Some commentators felt that the programme was relatively positive for May, but if these numbers are right it appears that the opposite is true.  Perhaps looking an underpaid nurse in the eye and using the fatuous phrase "magic money tree" isn't such a guaranteed vote-grabber after all.

GB-wide voting intentions (Survation, online fieldwork) :

Conservatives 40% (-6)
Labour 39% (+5)
Liberal Democrats 8% (n/c)
UKIP 5% (+2)
SNP 4% (n/c)

Scottish subsample : SNP: 44%, Labour 28%, Conservatives 21%, Liberal Democrats 6%, UKIP 2%

Obviously an individual Scottish subsample can't be regarded as remotely reliable, but nevertheless it's heartening to see a decent SNP lead, because we know from the experience of 2010 that high-profile debates excluding the SNP can have an extremely damaging effect.

UPDATE : Two other polls are more favourable for the Tories, although the fieldwork for both is not quite so recent.  ORB has the Tory lead increasing from 6% to 9%, while ICM have the lead only falling from 12% to 11% (although it should be noted that's still the smallest gap ICM have reported at any time during the campaign).

UPDATE II : The YouGov poll (which may be the final GB-wide poll of the evening) gives the Tories a lead of 4%, which suggests the state of play has remained very stable for several days.  However, it looks like the fieldwork either wholly or mostly preceded last night's "debate".  So the million dollar question for this evening : is Survation simply a random outlier, or is its more recent fieldwork highly significant?  Could it be picking up a Cleggasm-type effect?

The average Tory lead in tonight's polls is 7.2% - probably not quite hung parliament territory, but not too far away from it.

UPDATE III : ICM's Scottish subsample is : SNP 41%, Conservatives 29%, Labour 23%, Liberal Democrats 5%, Greens 2%.

31 comments:

  1. Scotland subsample of 66
    SNP: 44% Lab: 28% Con: 21% Lib: 6% UKIP: 2%

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  2. Totally out of line with all the other polls which may or may not mean anything.

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  3. It's not *totally* out of line - ICM and YouGov have Lab vote share around 40. The only odd thing is the Tory vote share.

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  4. Looks like ORB poll is now out on the Telegraph:

    Conservative;45%
    Labour: 36%
    Lib Dems: 8%
    UKIP: 4%

    If I were in a betting mood, which I'm sure as hell not on this one, that's what I'd go with.

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    1. But it's less recent than Survation. The two don't necessarily contradict each other - it's possible that the explanation for the difference is simply the fieldwork dates.

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  5. I have to admit, I think this Corbyn surge has come too late. Many people who want to vote for him probably aren't registered (think students and other young people). Social media also doesn't reach the dedicated older voters as we know.

    Are these polls weighted by people who actually are registered to vote?

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    1. All UK pollsters weight but the weighting veries considerably by how they do it. This explains a lot of the extreme variations. For example, many weight down the young vote even if they say they will vote on the historically based assumption that a considerable percentage won't.

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    2. I'd've thought they wouldn't even poll unregistered folk? Perhaps James can tell us.

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    3. They factor in whether folk are registered or not, whether they are likely to vote of not, etc. Who does that more accurately is the question.

      E.g. Look at the second paragraph below by Uk Poliing Report on one of yesterday's polls:

      "Ipsos MORI’s penultimate election poll has topline figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 40%(+6), LDEM 7%(nc). Changes are from their previous poll in mid-May, hence the drop in the Tory lead here is probably largely just reflecting the post-manifesto drop that we’ve seen in other polls. The forty point figure is the highest Labour have recorded since early 2014 (though of course, back then it gave them a substantial lead… now it still puts them five points behind).

      "Note that there is a minor methodology change, filtering out unregistered people and adjusting turnout to account for overestimation. The effect of that was to increase the Conservative vote by one point, to decease Labour by one point, so without it we would have been looking at a three point Tory lead."

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    4. Keaton, having registered doesn't mean that you bother to show up on the day. Unfortunately.

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    5. Of course. I was replying to Anonymous's question as to whether polls are weighted by voter registration. If pollsters have that information, it seems pointless even to include anyone who's unregistered.

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  6. One thing is for sure, some of the polls have to be mince or even straight forward lies.

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  8. Perhaps an acceleration in support for Labour means the fieldwork dates are much more important.....

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  9. Deleted for not saying what I meant. I hadn't seen the fieldwork dates when I posted the numbers, just the headline numbers. Of course, that could explain it but I also don't know which weighting methodology they use. Still the numbers don't look unrealistic to me. I have a very hard time believing the Survation numbers. I think they're probably on the outer edge of outlierness. (Is that a word? lol)

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  10. If May wins this, it's because of the main stream media.

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    1. I disagree, If Corbin losses it will be because he has been stabbed in the back by his own party ever since he was elected leader. Especially the welsh party & MP's and it looks like it will be Corbin who will now save their bacon.

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  11. So the million dollar question for this evening : is Survation simply a random outlier, or is its more recent fieldwork highly significant? Could it be picking up a Cleggasm-type effect?

    You mean a big poll surge late in a GE campaign which turns out to be a bit of a damp squib on the day?

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    1. Not really - the Cleggasm was three weeks before polling day. Cameron undid some of the damage in the second and third debates (especially the third, when Clegg looked a bit tired).

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    2. James, dont you think in this case it will break one way or the other? One model or set will prove better?

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  12. Who is actually watching the debates?

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  13. Interesting that (via Britain Elects Twitter) Corbyn measures better than May for 'doing well/badly' rating in that YouGov poll, albeit it -2 (to her -5).

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  14. ICM has twitter explanation up of how they from 33-31 to 45-34. Possible terezie attack on london bridge, fyi

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  15. I hope that the troll has a large expensive house as he will certainly need lots of care moving forward.

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  16. Be funny if he chances come down to south thanet and the CPS

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  18. New Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times:

    Results (Panelbase, Sunday Times):

    SNP: 42% (-2)
    Con: 30% (-3)
    Lab: 20% (+7)
    Lib: 5% (n/c)
    Grn: 2% (n/c)
    UKIP: 1% (-1)

    Fieldwork 26-31 May

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    1. No sign of Survation yet, presumably not released because of the terrible events in London. This poll agrees with Ipsos Mori on SNP share and Lib Dem share, but disagrees on the balance between Con and Lab.

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    2. GB-wide voting intentions (Survation, online fieldwork) :

      Conservatives 40% (-6)
      Labour 39% (+5)
      Liberal Democrats 8% (n/c)
      UKIP 5% (+2)
      SNP 4% (n/c)

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