Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Panelbase) :
SNP 42% (-2)
Conservatives 30% (-3)
Labour 20% (+7)
Liberal Democrats 5% (n/c)
Greens 2% (n/c)
UKIP 1% (-1)
This is now the most up-to-date Scottish poll we have - the fieldwork overlapped with the Ipsos-Mori poll. but it both started and finished several days later. The results differ significantly from Ipsos-Mori in showing a more modest SNP lead, and in still showing the Tories comfortably in second place despite the Labour recovery. Because there's no particular reason to suppose that Labour have slipped back since the Ipsos-Mori poll was conducted, it's likely that the differences between the two polls can be largely explained by methodology rather than by real changes in public opinion. We may therefore face a degree of uncertainty going into polling day over the extent of the threat faced by the SNP from the Tories. Constituencies like Moray and Perth & North Perthshire would certainly look somewhat less vulnerable if Ipsos-Mori are correct.
Whichever firm is closer to the truth, though, there doesn't appear to be much risk of substantial seat losses to Labour - unless of course the new GB-wide Survation poll is right in suggesting that the Corbyn v May Question Time special produced an additional Labour surge. The big question for the last few days has been whether the Labour mini-recovery in Scotland was happening at the expense of the SNP or the Tories, and Panelbase seem to be indicating that it's a bit of both - although there's always a chance that the true picture is being masked by margin-of-error effects.
There's another possibility as well. Panelbase recently changed their methodology for GB-wide polls in a more Tory-friendly direction, and I don't yet know whether they've done the same thing for their Scottish polls. If by any chance they have, it would probably be good news, because it might indicate that there's been more Tory slippage than appears to be the case at face value. We'll find out eventually.
Obviously opinion polling is the last thing on people's minds at the moment, but I just thought I'd give you the information briefly for the sake of completeness. Based on the Manchester precedent, it seems almost inevitable that campaigning will now be suspended again, and that the Question Time edition featuring Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron will be postponed. If the suspension goes on for a few days, there may even be a slight question mark over whether the election will take place as planned on Thursday (although given the immense legal and practical difficulties associated with a postponement, I would imagine it probably will go ahead).
UPDATE : The full-scale Scottish poll from Survation we were expecting to see last night has belatedly appeared...
Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Survation) :
SNP 40% (-3)
Conservatives 27% (-1)
Labour 25% (+8)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-3)
That's sufficiently similar to the trends seen in the Panelbase poll to reduce the chances that Panelbase were flattering the Tories due to methodological changes. All the same, we have one poll showing the SNP suffering a little more than the Tories from the Labour surge, and another poll showing the opposite, so there's no clear evidence that the SNP's lead over the Tories is going to be lower than it would have been without the Corbyn bandwagon. Indeed, Survation report a slightly bigger lead than Panelbase do - although the flip side of the coin is that they also give the SNP a significantly smaller advantage over Labour, so there may now be a danger of losing a few seats in that direction.
What we're seeing yet again is the inbuilt disadvantage that the SNP face in a Westminster election - this Labour surge simply wouldn't have been feasible in any other context. People are getting excited about Corbyn because they're visualising him (implausibly) forming a government, which is an allure that the SNP can't directly compete with. The huge saving grace is that it's the party in third place that is surging, rather than the party in second place - and in a first-past-the-post election, that should save our bacon unless things get dramatically worse.