Thursday, May 25, 2017

Disaster for Tories as up-to-date YouGov poll unexpectedly shows their lead dropping even further

It's that time again, folks.

*puts on Canadian accent*

It's another terrrrr-ible night for the Conservative party.

Britain-wide voting intentions (YouGov) :

Conservatives 43% (-1)
Labour 38% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
SNP / Plaid Cymru 5% (n/c)
UKIP 4% (+1)
Greens 1% (-1)

I've already had to hurriedly update this blogpost, because YouGov have broken the habit of a lifetime by getting their datasets out straight away, which means we don't have to wait until the morning to learn the SNP's vote share.  The good news is that the party appear to be holding firm, although there's no sign of any additional progress in the Scottish subsample - the SNP lead the Tories by 41% to 30%, which is pretty similar to the most recent full-scale Scottish poll from YouGov.  But of course individual subsamples are not especially reliable - it's perfectly possible that this one is underestimating the SNP lead, and that the GB-wide Tory slump is being replicated in these parts.  And it's certainly very interesting to learn that it's even possible for Labour to reach a heady 38% of the GB vote without a major recovery in the Scottish subsample (although admittedly their 22% showing is somewhat better than their recent average).

The fieldwork for this poll took place yesterday and today, which means not only that it was entirely after the tragedy in Manchester, but also that it was entirely after the Prime Minister's announcement that the UK's threat level had been raised to 'critical' - which I thought was the moment that might have the really significant political effect by putting security matters (a traditional area of Tory strength) at the forefront of voters' minds.  YouGov have pointed to some internal polling as evidence that the situation was even worse for Theresa May on Monday, implying that the events of the last few days have indeed helped her to recover from a low that we weren't even aware of - but even if that's true, it looks like the recovery must be extremely modest.  It appears that we may have a tendency to significantly overestimate the effect of sudden shocks on voting intentions - like many others, I expected the reaction to the Jo Cox tragedy last year to boost the Remain vote, and perhaps it did, but not by a decisive amount.

As always with a single poll showing something truly out of the ordinary, we need to remember that the further narrowing of the Tory lead could just be an illusion caused by sampling variation.  But what this does mean is that it's pretty unlikely that the Tories are in a better position now than they were immediately after their manifesto launch, when it appears their lead may have slumped to single figures.  (The only polling firm taking issue with that is ICM, who put the lead at 14 points.)  It looks, therefore, as if Monday's U-turn on social care did not have the desired effect, and may even have made things worse for the Tories - at least in the short-term.

To answer the question a lot of people are asking : yes, if there's a uniform swing between Tory and Labour, and if the Lib Dems and SNP are resilient in seats they're defending, this poll takes us firmly into hung parliament territory.  The trouble is that the Brexit factor means there almost certainly isn't going to be anything even close to a uniform swing, meaning it's impossible to know for sure whether a 5% Tory lead would translate into a hung parliament or a small overall Tory majority.  But at the very least it would put the Tory majority at severe risk.

Of course the million dollar question is whether the polls are even accurate.  It would be a mistake to jump to the conclusion that the polls must be underestimating the Tory lead by roughly as much as they did last time, because methodology has been changed since then in the hope of avoiding any repeat.  Nevertheless, Matt Singh is gaining a lot of publicity for his prediction that the Tories will once again significantly out-perform the polls.  I must say I was a little underwhelmed by his reasoning - he's certainly on solid ground in suggesting that leadership ratings are predictive of election results, but I fear he may be placing too much emphasis on the sharp difference between the outcomes of May local elections and June general elections in 1983 and 1987.  It's possible there were 'era-specific' explanations for that phenomenon (such as the existence of the SDP-Liberal Alliance).  There's no reason to automatically assume that because something has happened twice in the relatively distant past, it's bound to happen a third time.

One problem the Tories have now got is that if they're in a bit of a hole, they can't really dig their way out of it by going after Jeremy Corbyn quite as brutally as they probably intended to until recently.  National campaigning will get underway again tomorrow, but all parties (with the possible exception of UKIP) will know that anything too nasty from them could backfire badly given the current public mood.

And a comforting thought to finish with - if this poll is close to being right, it reflects the state of public opinion at a time when the election was already underway.  A great many postal votes have already been cast.

32 comments:

  1. SNP in this subsample at 41%.

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  2. You guv still doing their best to boost the tories. But failing.

    If that video of mayhem telling the police that they were crying wolf didn't exist then she might have got away with it, and enjoyed the normal Tyrant's boost from standing up to terrorists.

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  3. The tables seem to be up now, James: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dcfgflapq2/TimesResults_170525_VI_Trackers_Terrorism_W.pdf

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  4. That adds up to 101%. We know the reasons but it's still wrong.

    Also the SNP on 5% can't put them at any less than 45% in Scotland. Giventhat Scotland is 1 in 10 of the vote and allowing for rounding. Depending on the actual population ration then it could represent 5.5% which would be 60% or more in Scotland.

    41% in the sub-sample can't give 5% in the UK total.

    Call up that twonk from yuk gov and have him explain his current polling fraud.

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    Replies
    1. YouGov can be legitimately criticised for many things, but not for percentages that add up to 101% - that's a normal effect of rounding.

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  5. So since the Cons are on 30% in Scotland, and Labour thus under 19%, would that not suggest that in rUK the Cons will be about 44%, but Labour about 40%. The Tory lead is down to 4%, with 2 weeks to go. Photo finish we hope.

    And please nobody mention the strength of our voting block. We can do without anti Scots nonsense in the South.

    Perhaps we can get to a hung parliament yet. Perhaps the best outcome for all of us.

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  6. When was the field work done? (too lazy to check the data)

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    Replies
    1. Yesterday and today.

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    2. I took part in a You Gov poll on the 25th. They know from previous surveys that I voted remain, that I am a Yes voter and intend to vote SNP on 8th June. I don't believe that I am picked randomly.

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  7. I just see more dirty tricks from the pollsters on behalf of their paymasters but then I am a cynic. It plays right into the narrative(lie) that it will be a close election.

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  8. All after the Manchester bombing and the pm raising threat level. What we would call a flash poll.

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  9. James, could these percentages possibly mean that the SNP plus Labour could gain more seats than the Tories?

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    Replies
    1. That's unlikely - the lead would probably need to fall further.

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  10. Crossbreaks can be very misleading especially in small numbers. Kantar poll released today has a Scottish crossbreak with the SNP at 49%, Labour at 15%, the Tories at 11%, the LibDems at 2% with 20% undecided and 4% not voting. Sample size of 78. If only these numbers could be repeated in a full size poll.

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    1. You've forgotten to take the squeeze into account. After the squeeze it's roughly : SNP 59%, Labour 21%, Conservatives 14%, Greens 4%, Liberal Democrats 3%. But those numbers aren't definitive because they're not turnout-weighted. Kantar's datasets aren't terribly helpful from a Scottish point of view.

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    2. I like that 59 next to the SNP, exactly the same as the number of seats it should deliver.

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  11. Maybe update your poll of polls so we lazy people don't have to do the maths?

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  12. Are you gov polling the same people in Scotland and getting the same results. No way Tories are on 30%. OK it's a sample but miles out!

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  13. Must be about time to play the 'Corbyn in Sturgeons top pocket' card.
    Can't have nasty Jocks having a say in government.

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  14. The Conservative pensioners are not going to forget.

    In Scotland the SNP manifesto is just going to rub it in.

    Triple Lock, free health care, free perscriptions on the one side and dementia tax, bedroom tax and a crumbling NHS on the other.

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    Replies
    1. Triple Lock, free health care, free perscriptions

      Nothing is free. Someone pays for it, the question is who.

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    2. Those who pay nothing at present.

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  15. Even if Labour receive a higher vote share due to boundary changes, I believe that the tories could still win a majority?

    They will take a few seats up here, it's something we have to accept I'm afraid.

    Aberdeenshire West, East ren and probably the 3 borders seats and maybe another north east seat.

    I don't think Aberdeenshire West is signed and sealed yet though for them. Used to be a lib dem seat for years, snp could sneak through if libs return to their party....

    In many areas in the North East it's SNP v Tories. Liberal vote has collapsed...for now at least. Who knows if many will return to voting liberal and be not able to stomach voting for the tories after all that has happened.

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    1. There aren't any boundary changes this time.

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    2. Oh, well then, coalition of chaos it is

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    3. Don't forget that Unionists flocking to the Tories could also unseat Scotland's last Red Tory in Edinburgh South. Wouldn't it be deliciously ironic given SLab's SNP obsession at the cost of not campaigning against the Tories if it should fall to the Tories, not SNP?

      Since the transfers at the moment seem to be from unionist to unionist it is not at all clear that this means the SNP's dominance will fail. With the Greens standing in only a handful of seats us Yessers have only one party to vote for.

      I say that as someone who did not vote SNP for Holyrood and put them second and third in the council elections. Horses for courses. SNP the only way (Glasgow North possibly excepted) for the GE.

      Besides I'm in Dundee East, the safest seat in Scotland. It will take a political tsunami of enormous magnitude to unseat him and I don't see one on the horizon. So under FPTP a vote for anyone but Stuart Hosie is a wasted vote.

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  16. It can only be a case of speculation but I'm wondering how Labour voters in the likes of Aberdeen feel about their votes being used to put Tories in power? Could it pay off for SNP in the GE?

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  17. Meanwhile the fake news Herald is in full smear mode. The lying libdems were out campaigning in Wednesday in Edinburgh West. SNP candidate highlights their behaviour on Twatter and the slime use the dead husband of the loathsome C Jardine to hide their shame.

    I couldn't care less whose relatives are dead. this is democracy in action and our rights override anybodies hurt feelings.

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  18. Glad to see SNP holding firm. That will wipe smile off Theresa May and Ruth Davidsons face. !!!

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  19. Tory Policies are always in favour of the few not the many... this just about sums it up...
    https://thestoryparty.wixsite.com/breaking-the-news/single-post/2017/05/27/A-Strong-And-Stable-Leadership-A-Country-That-Works-For-EVERYONE

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  20. Tory Policies are always in favour of the few not the many... this just about sums it up...
    https://thestoryparty.wixsite.com/breaking-the-news

    ReplyDelete