Someone working with the media asked for an update of the Scottish subsample average, so as I did the calculation anyway, I may as well share it here...
SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
SNP 45.0% (-1.6)
Conservatives 24.0% (-6.1)
Labour 22.2% (+7.3)
Liberal Democrats 7.4% (+3.1)
Before anyone gets too excited, this average is based on just five subsamples, and is heavily skewed by the Kantar/TNS results, which are wildly out of line with everything else. Without Kantar, the SNP would be lower and the Tories would be higher. Nevertheless, it does look very much like Labour have genuinely made a modest recovery - their vote share is pretty consistent across the subsamples. That opens up some intriguing possibilities - if, for example, the GB-wide swing from Tory to Labour has been replicated in Scotland without the SNP taking a significant hit, it might help the SNP in several constituencies (although obviously if Labour recover too much, the SNP might start losing seats in former Labour heartland areas).
In other words this poll is utterly meaningless in that it could mean any one of a number of scenarios or none of them at all.
ReplyDeleteNope, that isn't what I said at all. I said very clearly that the Labour recovery looks to be consistent and genuine.
DeleteIt means the Unionist vote is split more effectively and anti SNP tactical votes less attractive
ReplyDeleteHopefully we can do a reverse council election scenario on the Westminster party and split their vote instead of combining it to keep the SNP out.
DeleteWell, the Labour recovery in Scotland has nothing to do with Kezia Dugdale and company imo. They are obviously benefiting from Corbyn performing better than expected against the Tories, at least in the last few weeks. I reckon the SNP need to get at least 45 per cent of the vote.
ReplyDeleteSeems like ther is a two phase election in Scotland -
ReplyDelete1. Pro or anti Indy, then
2. In the Unionist camp, the English/GB election
So a 7% SNP to Tory swing, if you looked at yougov and ignored Kantar would be a 12% swing
ReplyDelete