The Scottish subsample from today's Britain-wide YouGov poll, conducted yesterday and the day before, shows : SNP 42%, Labour 28%, Conservatives 18%, Liberal Democrats 6%, UKIP 4%, Greens 2%. This is the kind of result that would have looked entirely typical until the methodological change that YouGov introduced yesterday, but it's now a touch harder to interpret.
For the first time that I can remember in a long, long time, the political weighting in a GB-wide YouGov poll has seen the SNP vote scaled up in real terms - only by a small amount, but it's still a very different story from the routine downweighting we've been used to. Unlike yesterday, though, the new likelihood to vote filter hasn't boosted the SNP - with or without it, they lead by 42% to 28%.
It really is quite frustrating that the mists of a methodological adjustment have descended at exactly the moment we are searching to see if anything fundamental has changed. But we'll shortly have more clarity, because a full-scale Scottish poll from YouGov is coming very soon, possibly tonight, possibly tomorrow. It's very difficult to know what to expect from it - taking account of the new methodology in the GB-wide polls, the subsample figures might be pointing to a small reduction in the SNP's enormous lead, or they might just as easily be pointing to no change at all. We'll see.