I'm not sure mere words are sufficient to convey the enormity of the full-scale Scottish poll that has just been released by YouGov, with less than a month to go until general election day.
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election (YouGov, 8th-9th April) :
SNP 49% (+3)
Labour 25% (-4)
Conservatives 18% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 4% (+1)
UKIP 2% (n/c)
Greens 1% (-1)
There's an oddity here, because earlier today YouGov released a new 'nowcast' seats projection for the election, and in the commentary it was stated that the only significant trend that had been detected anywhere in Britain over the last week was a "very slight softening" of the SNP vote. So when it was reported earlier today that the new full-scale poll was "newsworthy", we assumed (OK, I assumed - not all of you did!) that we must be looking at a reduction in the SNP lead.
However, there isn't a direct contradiction, because the nowcast is based on different (and unpublished) survey data. The full-scale poll is more up-to-date, so it could be that it's picking up a trend that the nowcast hasn't caught up with yet. Or there may have been a methodological change that boosted the SNP in the full-scale poll - most probably the introduction of a likelihood to vote filter - which we'll find out about when the datasets are released.
Or, of course, margin of error effects could be at play, in which case the truth is probably somewhere between the full-scale poll and the nowcast. That would imply a relatively unchanged position - which would be absolutely fine, because it would still leave the SNP with a gigantic lead! Even the nowcast suggested that the SNP remained on course to win almost every parliamentary seat in Scotland.
Until we find out whether there has been any methodological change, it's difficult to make observations about the long-term trend with any confidence. But if we were to assume for the sake of argument that it's possible to make a direct comparison between the headline numbers of this poll and previous YouGov polls, the conclusion would be that we're looking at the first strong evidence of the SNP lead having increased further since the latter half of October. The first post-referendum YouGov poll put the lead at 16% - and an increase to 24% can't easily be explained by normal sampling variation (although it's not completely impossible). The SNP's own vote has increased from 43% to 49% since the autumn, which would also be very difficult to dismiss as margin of error noise. The position is less conclusive in respect of the Labour vote, which started out as 27% in the autumn, and has only varied within a narrower range of 25% to 29%.
Respondents to the new poll were asked who they thought won the first Scottish leaders' debate on Tuesday night (ie. the one on STV). It won't be any surprise to most non-journalists to learn that Nicola Sturgeon emerged as the landslide victor -
Nicola Sturgeon 56%
Ruth Davidson 14%
Jim Murphy 13%
Willie Rennie 1%
However, we can rest assured that the creepy Cult of Murphy in the press pack are reeling in disbelief at the sight of these figures, so comprehensively had they convinced themselves that their Messiah trounced Ms Sturgeon on Tuesday. Yes, guys, he was a distant third - behind even the leader of the Scottish Tories.
I mentioned last night my amusement at the antics of Ross Clark of the Spectator, who was so dismayed by the absence of instant polls after Tuesday's debate that he decided to invent some and declare Jim Murphy the winner of them. But that pales into insignificance in comparison with this tweet from Iain Martin just after the debate finished, which is surely destined to go down in history as the finest ever display of comically un-self-aware Murphy devotion -
"Twitter full of desperate Nats saying Sturgeon won debate. It's that cult thing again. Even when leader loses, claim victory. Creepy."
Iain was last seen barricading himself into a quiet pantry, and is expected to emerge in a few weeks.
I've no idea why he's feeling so chastened, though. Surely the explanation for this poll is obvious - 56% of the entire population of Scotland are "desperate" members of the Sturgeon "cult"! A whole nation of brainwashed zombies! Now that really is creepy, Iain. Creepy on stilts.
Lol (and first)
ReplyDeleteWhere do you find this out?
Yes Yes Yes
ReplyDeleteThere's just under four weeks left til the election and this is where Labour are!
DeleteHere's the thing, If he hadn't been elected by Labour idiots several months ago then you can be absolutely certain Murphy would have been out the door by now. Their very careers depended on him and Murphy has been utterly catastrophic for those 'scottish' Labour MPs who somehow didn't understand the Eggman was a major part of the problem instead of the solution.
I honestly can't see everyone in 'scottish' Labour keeping quiet for much longer. Even the dimmest of them must realise it's not just one poll and it's also not just the polls. Those who have any presence on the ground at all must have seen the reception Murphy and Labour are getting from the scottish public. Even the Murphy sycophants must realise just how disasterous he has been for them. He's less popular than Lamont was and his shouty unionist drivel is just making things worse and worse for himself and his expenses hungry westminster chums.
Put it this way, the knives are being sharpened right this second behind the scenes in 'scottish' Labour and it's going to be every man for themselves after the carnage plays out. God knows who they are going to replace the Eggman with but you can bet they are thinking about that right now. How could they not be?
I agree but they cant get rid of him now but in May ,if he is not out the door Id be shocked
DeleteSomeone send that Lib Dem SPAD a thank you note.
ReplyDeleteWe did the next best thing Niall.
DeleteThe SNP's Danus Skene is up against the fat fool yellow tory Carmichael in Orkney and Shetland. Since it was revealed Carmichael and his spad were neck deep in the shite and dirty tricks the fundraiser for Mr Skene's SNP campaign to oust the incompetent Carmichael has rocketed to £2,700 odd quid!!
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/orkney-and-shetland-snp-campaign-2015#pledges
Thank you indeed.
You would need a heart of stone not to laugh. :-D
I can see the headline in the MSM tomorrow….
ReplyDeleteLiberal vote goes up 33% after Scottish debates
What to 1.333333333%
DeleteOh. Made all the better by Jim, Murphy Saviour of the Union being at this point when I saw those poll results;
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=afRE3RwLwaE#t=762
Hmm, outlier methinks. Sub-samples haven't really suggested an increase of this sort. May be partly due to methodology changes (likelihood to vote)? Need to see the tables...
ReplyDeleteApparently only 44% of Labour voters thought Murphy won the debate on Tuesday.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes
Events, dear boy. :)
DeleteThere was fury at the Frenchgate smear pretty much across the board and a probably debate bounce for Nicola. Together they could pretty easily explain the movement in the polls.
Actually the subsample this week have shown a strong SNP VI and weak Labour - earlier today we has SNP on 56% on a CVI measure in Survation and a very strong 44-25 in the usually poor for SNP TNS-BRMB
DeleteCould I put a general question to James about the role of 'Don't Knows'? Like everyone else, I struggle to accept that these numbers are real, no matter how much I would like them to be. I wondered if there could be an influence from removal of the the DKs from the final figures.
DeleteIn FPTP there is always a dilemma for people whose preferred party has no real chance of taking the seat, presenting two hard questions: firstly whether to go for tactical voting or 'waste' the vote, both bad options; and second to decide which party is the best one to vote for. In this election, uniquely, one party is in with a serious chance in every single seat, so, uniquely, SNP voters don't face either dilemma. So I wonder if the DKs might fall disproportionately to the other parties?
Whether that's the case or not, I'd be interested to know what proportions of respondents are saying DK.
Orla
That Labour number feels right to me now.
ReplyDeleteI have thought for some time that most of the Scottish polls were over-estimating their support because, to me, it FEELS like Labour has lost significant ground since 2011 when they polled in the low 30s.
In the same way, although I hadn't thought about it before now, it FEELS like the SNP has gained ground since 2011 when they polled 45%.
Might this be the straw that forces Miliband to cut SLAB adrift and deploy what is after all UK Labour resources in the English marginals.
SLAB may not have reached their zenith just yet.
If I were Miliband I would be opting for that strategy. The most stringent goal for him currently is to be able to command a working majority to oust the Tories, which the SNP have already signed up for. It therefore makes no sense for him to waste resources in Scotland and he should be targeting England.
Delete@Anonymous
DeleteMight this be the straw that forces Miliband to cut SLAB adrift and deploy what is after all UK Labour resources in the English marginal.
Possibly. Miliband would have to get rid of Douglas Alexander as his campaign manager first (not sure what his correct title is?). Would that be possible without making it so transparent to the media? If he did not get rid of Alexander, then it would be very difficult to implement such a tactic without him twigging it. Why would Alexander go quietly? He is almost a prototype of the careerist politician.
All depends if Dougie in his heart of hearts believes he can keep his seat.
DeleteIf he doesn't then I'm sure he could be persuaded to run the UK campaign, forget about his own election and take his seat in the Lords and even a place in the government afterwards.
After all, the ermine robe is what all SLAB parliamentarians aspire to, innit?
Alternatively, telling him he needs to concentrate on saving his own seat might be a handy way of getting rid of him with plausible deniability.
DeleteI refuse to believe that the SNP could get 49 per cent of the vote in a general election. It is just seems and feels far too good to be true. I reckon the target should be 45 per cent, and around 30 seats. That is realistic imo. I remember the days of hoping for an SNP vote of 25 per cent in a general election....
ReplyDeleteI see Labour are doing relatively well in the polls in England. I think Labour in Scotland will get at least 15 seats. I can see the Tories really panicking now, and becoming (even) more Eurosceptic to win over UKIP voters. Certainly interesting times.
By the way, I would more than accept an SNP vote of 49 per cent!!
IIRC, Labour polled at or near 50% across GB leading up to the 1997 and 2001 Westminster elections but ended up "only" winning 43% in each. This was probably because its softer supporters thought it was in the bag and they didn't need to vote (both elections had relatively low turnouts).
DeleteThey were polling at or near 60% at times. Although that was with the support of every single newspaper TV station and proto-blogger on the planet.
DeleteIt should be a simple test. If you voted for blair then you lose all rights to vote, drive, own property, have a pension and breathe.
Thankfully, I didn't vote for Blair. Just put my first X ever on a ballot paper at the ripe old age of 21 next to 'SNP'.
DeleteI still have a vivid memory of pulling off the road in 2007 when the result was being confirmed on the radio so I could hear properly and thinking 'Oh shit - they've won'.
re: anon 10:56
DeleteRight enough, there were some polls placing Labour in the mid 50s in early April 1997. Quite a few polls earlier in the parliament gave them 60%+!
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
2001 election they were fluctuating around 50% (43-55 range).
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1997-2001
It could be picking up the local campaigning in seats that have not seen much political activity (referendum excluded) before. I have never seen so many SNP activists in Dundee West since the October 1974 election.
ReplyDeleteIncensed by Frenchgate I filled in the online 'get involved' form on the SNP's website despite not being a party member offering to canvass etc and giving my Dundee East postcode. I have heard nothing since. Might be because they have better things to do or it might be they have more volunteers than they know what to do with.
DeleteIt's notable that ALL labour leaflets have been delivered by the postman while SNP leaflets get hand delivered. Just an indication of relative volunteer numbers and enthusiasm.
At the end of the day, if you want to see an end to endless wars, bankster bailouts, obscene spending on nukes and public service cuts, are you really going to vote Labour?
ReplyDeleteHELL YEAH!
ReplyDeleteIt pains me to vote SNP in May coz I don't support their policies. But for the greater good and to progress independence I will.
ReplyDeleteIf you are a Green supporter, a vote for the SNP now brings forward the chance of an indy Scotland where the Greens will either be a partner in government or a strong voice in opposition. Vote SNP to (eventually!) get Green. The same applies to SSP, I long for the day the SSP can take over from the "Red Pawns" as the real party of the working class in Scotland.
DeleteAnonymous @ 10:45PM,
DeleteI will stand proudly behind Patrick Harvie and a Green vote after we have established it means something. I.e. after we are free.
So, I agree with anonymous 2 @ 1:28 AM
We've had Green supporters asking for SNP posters.
DeleteThe election broadcast by the Greens really hits home the point that none of the mainstream parties have ever done anything for Scotland.
ReplyDeleteStandby for all the proponents of two-party politics telling us we're about to become a one-party state!
ReplyDeleteI particularly look forward to all those Labour MPs in scotland (who have had a safe seat for decades) angrily denouncing the electorate for not realising the extraordinary danger of not voting blindly for them en masse for the first time ever. :-D
DeleteMike,
DeleteI am really interested in what other folk think the 'tipping point' for the huge growth in both the membership and electoral popularity of the SNP might mean. Or, more exactly, why people change their political allegiances en bloc.
Is it a complete digression to compare what happened in some, not all, Arab countries as at least a catlyzer of what became possible? Perhaps too late for the referendum but enough to make folk aware of the possibilities, for the first time ever? (Well, at least since we last rioted on the streets a few hundred years ago).
I am genuinely interested in the 'swing' voter. Why do you think they have 'swung' so far as to be in our camp?
Do you see it as a Damascene moment for them or could they drift back?
The only people I 'know' politically speaking are late 20's, early 30's and for them their only political allegience has come out of the referendum campaign. Before that, if you mentioned politics in the pub, it was your round and not necessarily in a nice way. The extent to which this pre-occupies them astonishes me, and, yes, in a good way. Sadly I am still expected to buy a round.....
Strange poll that, when you consider that it was the LibDems doing the smearing, not Labour in this case! Still, it[s an will wind that blows nobody good! :-)
ReplyDeleteThe lead was by the LibDems but most of the smearing after the leak was done by Labour. It was Labour who for days after it was clearly a false accusation kept insisting it was true with Miliband in effect calling the French ambassador a liar (although not in so many words). By that time, most people were laying it at Labour's door.
DeleteI agree whit thegander, why do the LibDems get an increase if the smear is the cause for Labours drop? doesn't make sense, as the Alistair Carmichael and Wullie Rennie were both strongly implicated in the releasing of the smear memo.
ReplyDeleteI tend to think it's more down the 'Murphy Bounce' that the MSM and Labour promised, (except it's went in the opposite direction, so it's more of a 'Murphy Rebound)
I have noticed that although the polls have remained steady for the past month or so, Jim Murphy's personal ratings have been plummeting, while Nicolas have remained high.
It's clear that people don't like Murphy and probably also don't believe or trust him, so it was only a matter if time before people not liking Him turned into people not liking Labour.
I am more inclined to believe (and hope) that this is the real reason we are now seeing a collapse in Labours vote and the SNP vote remaining strong, because if it is in fact the case, we may see further falls in Labours polling % over the next few weeks.
Patrick, my sense is the smear was mainly a media hoohah and not exactly the talk of the steamie, and the debates are a bigger factor in this poll. Even when she's not wiping the floor with the opposition, Nicola is just so damned likable -- in a way that Alec Salmond, for all his qualities, wasn't, or at least not to the same extent. As I've said before, she's pretty much a photo-fit of the ideal SNP leader and the worst possible attack target for Northbrit Labour. (Murphy being a photo-fit of the ideal NB Labour leader, if you're a Yesser).
DeleteI'm not sure you are correct. It was trending for a couple of days on twitter which generally means a large number of fairly 'regular people' are talking about it.
DeleteYou may well be right. My sample was small - just the non-obsessives I know.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Delete"I agree whit thegander, why do the LibDems get an increase if the smear is the cause for Labours drop? doesn't make sense, as the Alistair Carmichael and Wullie Rennie were both strongly implicated in the releasing of the smear memo."
ReplyDeleteActually, you and thegander have just reminded me that the LibDems led the smear, but because Labour came out with their biggest artillery to support them, I kind of forgot they were there. If most people are like me, maybe that's why. It also illustrates the incredible petulance of "Scottish" Labour.
Even though never uttered, I would in fact agree with the premise that Miliband is not fit for the job as PM. It's only that the Tories as a package are even worse.
I live in an ultra Labour seat and my reading is its not so much people going over to the SNP as "I'm Labour but ..." in 3/4 of the cases that used to be "I'm Labour and I'm voting Labour". Once they get to "but ..." they have to choose and the SNP is, in our case, the only choice close to what they want.
ReplyDeleteWord is that this poll was carried out using the new YouGov methodology.
ReplyDeleteAn unbeliveable poll.
ReplyDeleteWho set the cat amongst the pigeons earlier by all these rumours of a Labour bounce? I even seen someone on Twitter coming with a 3% gap between the SNP and Murphy had clawed back 8% of the SNP lead.
Absolute nonsense, but fantastic nonsense, although I'm now bright-eyed and bushy tailed at the back of 0100 - I work nights so that's quite alright ;)
Also, mega LOLZ for Foulkes! He's been bumping his gums all day about tonight's poll and retweeting anyone who's mentioned it.
Yet,
George Foulkes retweeted
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 1 hr 1 hour ago
3 more polls to go today ComRes/Phone for Mail at 10pm YouGov/Times Scotland at 10pm YouGov/Sun national at about 10.30
.....
George Foulkes retweeted
David Clater @SpawnofJustice · 17 mins 17 minutes ago
@Dumbiedikes1 @MsHeatherCM @GeorgeFoulkes CyberPolls are not to be trusted. Not a truly random or balanced sample.
HAHAHAHA
That might be a reasonable theory, but it's punctured by the fact that all of the Ashcroft polls of constituencies, the ComRes poll of Labour constituencies and the two Ipsos Mori national polls were conducted by telephone.
DeleteMonsieur Kelly, would love to know if you think this profoundly gratifying analysis in the New Statesman is broadly correct?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/no-really-snp-are-going-win-least-50-scotland-s-59-seats
Boy oh boy less than a month to go, I hope, pray and believe, before Labourgeddon.
:)
Amusing ComRes sub-sample (n<100): SNP 38, LD 19, Lab 19, Con 18, Others <4
ReplyDeletehttp://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Daily-Mail-ITV-News-Political-Poll-10th-April-2015.pdf
Populus sub-sample: SNP 47, Lab 27, Con 18, Others <4
ReplyDeletehttp://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/10-04-2015_BPC.pdf
YouGov have posted the tables for last night's poll.
ReplyDeletehttp://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/9unqqunlzn/Times_Scotland_Results_150409_Formatted_readyforwebsite.pdf
One minor point of concern I would note is that the relatively small group of people born outside the UK have been up-weighted from about 4% of the sample to 9%. I would be very surprised if most of this group were even eligible to vote, because the franchise is restricted to UK, Ireland or Commonwealth citizens. e.g. Polish immigrants who have not taken out British citizenship will not be eligible. Although this may be reflected by the fact that this group is much less likely to vote - 19% say they are certain not to vote.
Nicola's approval rating +48. Stellar!
ReplyDeleteSlimy Murphy's is -18.
The gender gap is almost no more:
Men: SNP 50 Lab 24
Women: SNP 49 Lab 25
I wonder, given these figures, and the fact that Ruth beat Jim in the debate poll, if they might have done well to beg Ms Lamont to stay, or elect Sarah Boyack as her replacement.
DeleteJim has been an unmitigated disaster, approved on only by Tony Blair!
Big rise in sat for Nicola on 3 weeks ago.
Delete#nikileaks
The gender gap is misnamed. It has always been an elderly gap. Since many more elderly are women than men strong preferences either way in that age group can these days appear as a gender gap.
DeleteIn order to counter this or decide if it even needs countering you have to realise this. Of course that won't stop the media scribes scribbling about how the SNP and/or Alex Salmond have a woman problem.
Wiser heads know this is the issue and it is one that will gradually fade over time. The young folk don't seem to care either way by gender.
With those ratings it's no wonder the SNP vote increases every time creepy shouty Murphy appears on TV.
ReplyDeleteHow long before he is shown the door and enter stage left Ironside Brown being wheeled out with: "It's not their flag , it's my flag".
Yep Gordon except our flag only has two colours on it!
cited these figures together with a nice wee documentary film that i hop you will all enjoy https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2015/04/11/the-fall-of-labour-in-scotland/
ReplyDeletebest wishes for the SNP vote on the Day
Ben