Monday, April 20, 2015

Astounding Ashcroft polls put SNP ahead in two Edinburgh constituencies

When the third batch of Scottish constituency polls was released by Ashcroft last Friday, there was something of a mystery over what had happened to the polls in Edinburgh North & Leith and Edinburgh South - we'd heard earlier in the week that both seats had been polled by Populus alongside the others.  It turns out that they were just taking a little longer to come through, and they've now been published.

Edinburgh North & Leith :

SNP 43% (+33)
Labour 29% (-9)
Conservatives 14% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-28)

(This would be an SNP gain from Labour.  Mark Lazarowicz of Labour would lose his seat.)

Edinburgh South : 

SNP 37% (+29)
Labour 34% (-1)
Conservatives 16% (-6)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-26)

(This would be an SNP gain from Labour.  Ian Murray of Labour would lose his seat.)

By some definitions, Edinburgh South is one of the two or three toughest seats in the whole of Scotland for the SNP to win - the problem is not just that they need a huge swing from Labour, but in contrast to many western seats they're also starting from a long way behind two other parties.  So although the SNP lead Ashcroft is reporting in the seat is small, that tends to confirm rather than detract from the impression given by other constituency polls that if the election was held right now, the SNP would win almost every seat in the country.

The main similarity between today's polls and the three polls last Friday that covered Labour-held seats in the west is that the SNP vote is surging forward by an equally impressive amount - but the main difference is that the Labour vote isn't collapsing to anything like the same extent.   (In fact, in Edinburgh South it has barely slipped at all.)  Both the similarity and the difference may be a mirage caused by the fact that the Liberal Democrats have been the main challengers to Labour in these two Edinburgh seats in the recent past.  The mass desertion of voters from the Lib Dem cause may have benefited both Labour and the SNP, meaning that the true underlying movement between the two main parties is being disguised in the headline numbers.  That movement is clearly very dramatic, but not quite as big as in the western seats.  In a sense, this bears out the spin we were hearing from Labour a few weeks ago that they were faring better in eastern and affluent seats - but it categorically doesn't bear out their conclusion that they are on course to actually retain those seats.  At best, they've got a fighting chance of clinging on.

Edinburgh South is of course always cited as a classic example of the sort of seat where Labour can expect help from Tory supporters voting tactically.  There's some evidence of that in the poll, but it's far from overwhelming - the six-point drop in the Tory vote is only a little bigger than the average drop elsewhere.

As always with Ashcroft, it's vitally important to bear in mind two features of the methodology that may be leading to the SNP's true strength being underestimated.  Firstly there's the "spiral of silence" adjustment, which artificially reallocates a portion of undecided voters to the party they voted for in 2010.  In normal circumstances, that would produce a more accurate result, but the circumstances we find ourselves in are not normal.  In both Edinburgh seats, the SNP's lead has been adjusted downwards by 1%.

Secondly and more importantly, the results are weighted by 2010 vote recall, which is known to be unreliable because people get mixed up between their Labour/Lib Dem vote in 2010 and their SNP vote in 2011.  In Edinburgh North & Leith, people who recall voting SNP have been downweighted from 118 to 66, and in Edinburgh South they've been downweighted from 97 to 53.  Almost a halving in both cases, and you don't need me to tell you that the potential distortion on the headline numbers is massive.  It's perfectly possible that the SNP are comfortably ahead in Edinburgh South, as opposed to the wafer-thin lead that is being reported.

The pompously-titled ANP ("Ashcroft National Poll") is also out today, and it's rather wonderful for the SNP.   They're on 6% across Britain, and the Scottish subsample figures are : SNP 59%, Labour 15%, Liberal Democrats 11%, Conservatives 10%, UKIP 4%, Greens 0%.  As usual, the Scottish sample size is extremely low.

*  *  *

I've fallen hopelessly in love with the new all-purpose Lib Dem catchphrase.  Last week it was "the SNP have taken their eye off the ball", now it's "I've seen the figures".  You know the kind of thing - Danny Alexander isn't going to lose his seat because "I've seen the figures".  Charles Kennedy most certainly isn't going to lose his seat because "I've seen the figures".  And if you think Nick Clegg is going to lose his seat, you're an absolute gibbering imbecile, because "I've seen the figures".

Which figures?  Internal comfort polling?  Optimistic canvass returns?  We don't know, but you can rest assured that there are figures, and they are bloody wonderful for the Liberal Democrats.

I can just picture the scene in East Dunbartonshire in the early hours of May 8th...

Returning Officer : And I hereby declare that the above-mentioned John Nicolson has been duly elected to serve as member of parliament for the East Dunbartonshire constituency.

Jo Swinson : No, he hasn't.

Returning Officer : I'm sorry?

Jo Swinson : I've seen the figures, and he hasn't won.  I have.

Returning Officer : I can assure you, Ms Swinson, that we've counted the votes with great care, and Mr Nicolson has more than you.

Jo Swinson : Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.  I think you'll find that the exclusive Liberal Democrat poll that we leaked to the Kirkintilloch Herald tells a rather different story.

59 comments:

  1. Where is Mr Anonymous today? Astonishing!

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    1. Sorry, I've been in a meeting all afternoon, which I resent given the weather.

      Very nice poll for you guys, I would expect 50 seats is looking more likely than 40 on these kind of numbers.

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    2. I do hope that blood did not flow at the meeting, and I hope you gave our best wishes to Jim and the others.

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    3. Thanks, I hope they're not paying me, given what I've been saying about JM on this blog. :)

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  2. Edinburgh South is my constituency. Historically gets amongst the very lowest SNP figures as Labour, Tories, Liberals and the Greens all do respectably. These figures would fit with my experience out leafleting and occasionally canvassing. Hardly any Labour posters. None I've seen for Tories or Liberals. This morning I had five people stop me or come out their doors asking me how I thought "we" were doing. But I told myself one thing the referendum showed was posters, enthusiasm and quiet opponents don't win you elections. So, it's very good to have it confirmed.

    An absolutely astounding position to be in in Edinburgh South. Looks like some tactical voting by angry Tories is already factored in (the drop is from 22% to 16% - much bigger than in North and Leith). That we can win here, with hard work over the next fortnight, is something I would never have believed. I'm off to do some more volunteering, right now.

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    1. Do you have to be an SNP member in order to get involved on their behalf in Edinburgh South?

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    2. Anyone can help out the SNP in Edinburgh South ( or any other constituency) but be warned that you will soon find it impossible to resist signing on.

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    3. Such a position I could soon be sharing with gentlemanly scholars like Murphy, J and Alexanders D &, err, D also.

      If it's good enough for them, it's good enough for me.

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    4. If you want to help leaflet, stuff envelopes or whatever, your offer will be gratefully and enthusiastically welcomed. Not sure where you live but the easiest thing to do is just to go along to the Yes Cafe at Liberton Dams:

      1-2 Liberton Dams
      Edinburgh, Midlothian EH16 6AJ
      0131 672 2778
      @yescafeedsouth
      http://yescafeedinburghsouth.weebly.com

      Open 9am till late. Also, they do fantastic and cheap bacon rolls and cooked breakfasts.

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  3. The constituency polls tie in with the national polling - the SNP is performing slightly better than the YES vote.

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  4. The swings from the 2010 result were interesting. The Labour vote is holding suspiciously well, and the Tories and Lib Dems are down significantly. So, either lots of Tories and Lib Dems are converting to the SNP, or...!

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  5. I note that Ashcroft gives the Tories a 4% lead nationally(UK wide). I might be wrong but that is now 3 of the last 4 polls giving the Tories the lead nationally. When is ICM poll due? That was the one given the Tories a 6%(UK Wide) national lead last time. Do you think there is a trend developing here James?

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    1. The ICM poll is already out - it gives the Tories a very narrow lead. I don't see any clear trend, no.

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    2. I find myself in the strange position of hoping for a Labour breakout despite not wanting Labour to be in government. It's very confusing. Sort of like being attracted to Maggie Gyllenhaal.

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    3. Yep it's basically still neck and neck. The coward Cameron's incessant whining about the SNP has been going on for weeks and hasn't helped them a jot. Nor will it. Only out of touch tory twits and the low I.Q. right-wing tabloids seem to like it but then who gives a shit about them? Certainly not the voter going by all the polls.

      The tory 'campaign' has been approaching the laughable levels of 2010. It has no real focus, comical photo-ops, massive pledges on the NHS that nobody will believe, (and also nullifies the profligate Labour spenders spin that the tories had hoped to use) and a coward for a leader who has made certain Labour and little Ed have an easy comeback when they try to attack little Ed personally. If he's that bad why is the coward Cameron terrified to debate him after all. Just makes the incompetent fop look weak as the debate gave Miliband a boost while the fop hid away with calamity Clegg.

      TBH though all that pales into comparison with the biggest and most stupid tory campaigning mistake of all. They spent a FORTUNE on hiring the race-baiter campaign 'guru' Lynton Crosby. This is the Crosby who made his name campaigning on the one issue the tory twits can't possibly campaign on. Immigration! So they are basically paying him to sit on his arse because the kippers would love nothing better than for the campaign to be about that. Which is why it won't be.

      Sheer idiocy that was pointed out at the time but of course the out of touch tory twits knew better.

      LOL ;)

      Course the Labour campaign has been fairly comical too which is why both parties have been firmly stuck polling short of a majority for months.

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  6. The polls resulted reported in the headline included the infamous Ashcroft adjustment. Unadjusted numbers show a marginally higher SNP lead at 38-34 over Labour in Edinburgh South and 44-29 in Edinburgh North and Leith.

    Some have also claimed that the SNP gains are due to the collapse of the LibDem vote in both constituencies. However, the polling numbers do not support that conclusion.

    In Edinburgh South, 37% of the LibDem 2010 vote has moved to Labour and 37% has moved to the SNP. Despite the coalition only 3% moved to the Tories and depressingly for the LibDems a mere 19% is remaining with the party.

    While it is true that Labour's vote share is holding at what appears to be a steady rate, this is only due to the massive influx of previous 2010 LibDem voters. Of those who voted Labour in 2010, 36% are now supporting SNP which eliminates any gain from the LibDem transfers. Even more depressing for the Labour is that fact that only 57% of their 2010 vote is staying with them. The partial surge of LibDem to Labour is masking the loss of almost half of Labour's previous support in this constituency.

    The same pattern shows up again in Edinburgh North and Leith.

    2010 LibDem supporters are moving to Labour at 27% but in even greater numbers to the SNP at 44%. A mere 12% of LibDem voters are sticking with the party with even 7% going to the Tories and 9% to the Greens. Of those voting Labour in 2010, 44% are moving to the SNP with only 50% staying with Labour.

    Even in Labour strongholds, Labour is losing massive amounts of vote and the only chance they have is trying to capture deserting LibDem voters.

    It appears the Jim Murphy bounce has indeed fallen flat.

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  7. I suspect that the Ashcroft poll might end up helping Ian Murray. This area voted No quite heavily - 65% to 35% - and there is probably a fairly large anti-SNP majority. The Tory Candidate has to date strongly pushed the line that only SLAB is in melt-down/ only Tories can defeat the SNP - and, given that the poll has made it fairly clear that this is incorrect, I suspect that there might be quite a few Tories who might now be switching over to Labour, It'll be interesting to see how this plays out...

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    1. Most voters don't pay the slightest bit of attention to polls. Polls of this type really are the preserve of the most obsessive politics watchers.

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    2. In am sure that that is true in general. However I certainly would not be surprised if the Murray campagin was to produce leaflets highlighting the poll results - and emphasising that only SLAB can beat the SNP. Indeed I would be very surprised if they didn't!

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    3. Well, even if this poll didn't exist, they would probably invent one for the leaflets.

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    4. Archie Dryburgh has been putting leaflets round DC&T declaring that only Labour can get rid of Mundell, which is a complete and utter lie but that's not stopping him saying it.

      Now I'm off to make poster-sized copes of the Ashcroft DC&T poll for our street stall....

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    5. I'm not sure unionists encouraging a situation where the Tories get their lowest ever share of the vote in Scotland in a UKGE to maybe save a couple of seats for Labour is a good thing.

      I think Ian Murray saving his skin narrowly would be worth a new record Tory low in Scotland.

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    6. Not a good thing for those of unionist persuasion I meant of course.

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    7. SS, my experience may of course be different from your own, but I don't know many unionists, per se, just No voters.

      Although we voted No, independence wasn't really a hot ticket item for us, I know personally it's not even in my top 10. Whereas for Nationalists it is (naturally and understandably) a much bigger deal.

      I wouldn't support a particular candidate based on their pro/anti union stance, it's just not that big a factor for me. I'm sure there are people like that out there, but I can honestly say I haven't really met any.

      If they had a vote tomorrow to roll Britain up into a European superstate, I'd happily vote the UK into oblivion.

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    8. The Brit Nat Parties have been fighting this election as another Referendum in Scotland and that has been one of their very big mistakes. Indeed Clegg doesn't seem to realise that Alex Salmond is no longer leader of the SNP. The Tories and Red Tories wish he was for some strange reason. Victims of their own anti Salmond propaganda perhaps? Of course Labour begging Tories to vote for them will be just another nail in the coffin of SLAB. What is worse for them is that Tories are probably the least likely folk to vote tactically.

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    9. I imagine there are quite a few voters who are finding the tactical voting calls as patronising and annoying.

      Everyone knows we won't get independence unless we vote for it in a future referendum. Treating people like idiots could well backfire. This also applies to the 'only the largest party' mantra.

      Many No voters actually like the sound of more powers for Scotland, if not full independence. And even if their preferred party is unlikely to win this time around, tactical voting will reduce their chances in future elections by turning every seat into a 2 horse race.

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  8. I didn't actually realise that Murray's seat was such a hard one for the SNP to take. Well well.

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  9. Apparently DON'T KNOW do not count

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    1. "Don't know" correlates quite well with "not going to bother voting".

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  10. If Labour are depending on Tory voters, then they are finished as a party in Scotland.

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  11. Apparently DON'T KNOW do not count

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    1. They do count, Connor, we just 'don't know' how they will count.

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  12. My Labour Unionist to his toenails line manager told me he is going to vote SNP in order to ensure The Vow gets delivered. He's in Edinburgh South. Murray is going to be neo-nazi toast in May.

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  13. "You know the kind of thing - Danny Alexander isn't going to lose his seat because "I've seen the figures".

    Which figures? Internal comfort polling? Optimistic canvass returns? We don't know, but you can rest assured that there are figures, and they are bloody wonderful for the Liberal Democrats."


    Sort of apt though when we consider how calamity Clegg became leader in the first place.

    On a freezing day in Westminster on December 2007, Lord Rennard held the future of the Liberal Democrat party in his hands – and not for the first time. The peer, who was the party's chief executive, elections strategist and returning officer for the Lib Dem leadership contest, found himself with 1,300 ballot papers that had come through the post, held up by the pre-Christmas rush, after the deadline two days earlier. He asked the two contenders, Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne, whether they wanted an official count of the extra papers. Mr Huhne said there should be, but Mr Clegg resisted. The decision was Lord Rennard's, and he insisted the rules had to be abided by.

    An unofficial check of the late papers suggested that Mr Huhne would have been the victor. But Lord Rennard's decision to stick to the rulebook allowed him to announce the next day that Mr Clegg had edged it – by 511 votes. The existence of the late ballots would be kept secret. Mr Clegg had a lot to thank Lord Rennard for.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dems-in-crisis-lord-rennard--from-kingmaker-to-king-breaker-8508255.html


    So it's not exactly a huge surprise that Clegg caved in and welcomed the odious Lord Rennard back into his ostrich faction and the lib dems even after so many women had quit the party in disgust.

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  14. If you ignore the right wing media in England, you would find that Nicola has been very favourably received down South.

    Is it beyond the realms of possibility, that the upsurge that Ed Miliband got after the first debate, was because people saw the coalition or deal between Labour/SNP would be just the kind of thing they wanted?

    He has wavered and hummed and ha'd since that time, so has lost some of that support, but over the past week a few Labour big-wigs have said Labour will indeed do some kind of deal with the SNP.

    Is this just coincidence, or has the famous 'Labour focus group' been telling them, that they like the idea of Labour & SNP working together in Westminster?

    The SNP winning both of these seats in Edinburgh would be akin to a political earthquake, but we almost saw a similar thing happening in the last Scottish parliament Election, in Ian Grays seat.

    If I remember correctly he won after a re-count and only then by about 100 votes.

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    1. "If you ignore the right wing media in England, you would find that Nicola has been very favourably received down South."

      Indeed Patrick but the fact is the tories are so laughably short of ideas and Cameron is so personally hopeless in a campaign that they just can't think of anything else to do other than whine about the SNP.

      You've also got most of the tory party sharpening knives behind the scenes as there will utter carnage should Cameron get the boot. The massive chasm over Europe in the tory party will open up as will the endless arguments/recriminations over how kipper they should be for 2020.


      "Is it beyond the realms of possibility, that the upsurge that Ed Miliband got after the first debate, was because people saw the coalition or deal between Labour/SNP would be just the kind of thing they wanted?"

      We know lots of former Labour voters like what they see because they are now voting for us. So it's pretty damn obvious that outside the Blairite bunker and the London chattering classes there are more than enough disillusioned Labour voters in England hoping for a return to a more substantial Labour party that isn't just yet more weak red-toryism. Nicola has done a superb job reassuring and encouraging those voters. There's a reason she not only won the debates but is by far the most popular leader even UK wide.

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  15. Great article and analysis.

    I'm a former Tory voter in Edinburgh N & L - voting SNP this time.

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  16. Just took part in a Panelbase poll - WM VI, future indyref vote, opinion of the leaders and weighting Qs by 2011 Holyrood vote and 2014 indyref vote.

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    1. And Edinburgh South and Edinburgh N&L pretty much what I expected - when the fuck is he going to do Edinburgh EAST?

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    2. Actually, I say that, I'm surprised by the size of the SNP vote in N&L - stonking.

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    3. Panelbase have been doing Scottish polls for the Sunday Times.

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  17. Interesting, anonymous ex-tory.

    What would you say are the main reasons for your switch? Is this a one-shot deal or do you identify with the SNP now?

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    1. I could never vote Tory. Too heartless.

      No, the only switch I've made is abandoning the Liberals (seeing as they cheerfully abandoned their principles in 2010, I feel I'm just returning the favour).
      I'm strangely unaligned in this election, I find them all very unappealing for different reasons.

      Evil, Unprincipled, Incompetent or Zealot. It's like a particularly horrible version of Snow White.

      Had the same problem with the referendum. "Here are two horrible options, neither of which you actually like. Please tick one box. If you want a different box, then tough shit." Oh super. Thanks, Democracy!

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    2. I think I was referring to a different anonymous (the ex tory above)

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    3. Ah, I think you were. Sorry about that Niall, mea culpa.

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  18. I live in Edinburgh South. Labour have been bombarding me with literature. So far I have had only two things from the SNP, one pretty pathetic scrappy thing from the Tories, whose candidate does not look strong, zero from the Lib Dems, but a total of 8 pieces of bumff from Labour's Ian Murray who has a strong profile here and has been a very hard working MP. SNP generally come fourth here, and a long way behind Labour, Lib Dems and Tories. Murray has also come out firmly against Trident. He will be hard to dislodge, as he has established a strong personal vote.

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    1. I think SNP did well there in the last general election in the area, i.e. Holyrood 2011?

      Tough one though, I agree.

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    2. Edinburgh Southern is held by Jim Eadie, SNP. But the boundaries are not the same as Edinburgh South.

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  19. Tweet from Sam Coates that there will be a new Scottish poll published at 10pm tonight...

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    1. retweeted by Kevin Pringle which suggests its positive for the SNP

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  20. Here's the link - due any minute http://bit.ly/1DuXEtb

    Gaavster

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  21. SNP 49
    Lab 25
    Con 17
    LD 5
    Other 4
    Unchanged on April 8/9

    Gaavster

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  22. I identify more with the SNP, now, you're correct. I hate Labour and can't wait 'til they get routed. I voted Yes in the referendum.

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  23. Wow, i didnt know that, i am awaiting next news, keep it up!

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  24. 14,500 folk contribute 12% of the tax revenue - you will miss us when we are all living in Berwick Upon Tweed!

    Bye, bye!

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    1. Best of luck finding 14,500 mansions in Berwick-upon-Tweed.

      Fare thee well!

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  25. I wasn't aware of that, thanks for a little bit of enlightment!

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