The frequency of Scottish polling seems to be increasing markedly as we approach election day - YouGov have tonight released a new full-scale Scottish poll, just ten days or so after their last one.
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election (YouGov, 16th-20th April) :
SNP 49% (n/c)
Labour 25% (n/c)
Conservatives 17% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 5% (+1)
This may look like a routine no change result, but in fact it's hugely significant. The last YouGov poll saw both the SNP vote and the SNP lead over Labour soar to record-breaking levels. The general rule of thumb is that no sudden change is meaningful until it's confirmed by a second poll showing much the same thing - in a sense we've already had that confirmation from TNS and Ashcroft, but it's still important to get a repeat poll from YouGov itself. There can now be absolutely no remaining room for doubt that the SNP lead has increased still further over recent weeks, although pinpointing exactly when the additional surge occurred is quite difficult.
I'll have to wait until the datasets appear before I can say much more of any use, but the other obvious thing that leaps out straight away is that the bulk of the fieldwork for this poll appears to have taken place after the BBC leaders' debate on Thursday night. So there doesn't seem to be any comfort for Polly Toynbee and her startling theory that Ed Miliband's performance in that debate would help turn things around a little for Scottish Labour. Admittedly, we've been told that the poll does show a significant improvement in Miliband's personal rating, but he's still light-years behind Nicola Sturgeon, and for as long as that remains the case there's no rational reason to suppose that the leadership factor will help fuel a late Labour comeback.
The lack of Jim Murphy debates, has stalled the SNP rise. :D
ReplyDeleteThat'll dae.
ReplyDeleteSurvation I think on Thursday and a pal did a Panelbase one yesterday (mentioned Holyrood, Indyref2 etc)
Still more than two weeks to go but my hunch is that this massively UNDERSTATES the current SNP position.
ReplyDeleteCanvassing in my locality shows SNP approx. 10% stronger than in 2011 even before Don't Knows / Won't Says / Non Voters are stripped out.
It seems the polls are a little bit behind the real-time movement on the ground like then so my hunch is we will see bigger leads in the coming days.
Lib Dems up one, where did they do it? Orkney :)
ReplyDeleteTories
DeleteUnlikely in Orkney?
DeleteCarmicheal is not very popular up there any more!
I think the hysterical reaction to the rise of the SNP in the right wing press is actually emboldening people. As it looks so empty and full of complete bluster. I think the case for austerity economics is fast dissolving and losing any credibility.
ReplyDeleteIt would be interesting to see a poll that asks for voting intentions of postal voters.
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DeleteAsk Ruth Davidson as she is the expert on that one.
DeleteOn past form, YouGov will soon start asking people something along the lines of "how will you vote, or how have you already voted?"
DeleteThey won't. That would technically be an exit poll and therefore illegal if published before 10pm on 7 May.
DeleteThey've done it before, I can clearly remember it. Have the rules changed in recent years?
DeleteI've heard Curtice make this same point about legality of publishing dating relating to any information about postal votes before the polls close.
Deletehttps://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/590079476895244288
DeleteMichael Crick: "With postal votes now flowing back in huge numbers, pollsters should split their surveys between voting intention, and votes already cast"
Anthony Wells: "only if we want to get arrested. Seperating out those who've already voted would be an exit poll & illegal."
To explain, Crick has been banging on (on twitter anyway) about the significance of postal votes going out 3-4 weeks ahead of election day.
Phenomenal figures. What a campaign by this movement, not least this blog.
ReplyDeleteICM tables http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_guardian_april_campaign2.pdf
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ReplyDeleteWhat are the polls saying so far about predicted turn out James? If anything that is?
ReplyDeleteThe average 10/10 certain to vote in the 34 Ashcroft polls to date is 69%. That's over 5% up on the actual 2010 turnout.
DeleteSo looking at things in simplistic terms...
ReplyDeleteThere are now twice as many people in Scotland planning to vote SNP than Labour
There are now three times as many people in Scotland planning to vote SNP than Tory
There are now 10 times as many people in Scotland planning to vote SNP than LibDem
Sounds good doesn't it :)
Gaavster
I think this shows the importance of Nicola starring in the TV debates, and performing well. Typically the SNP are sidelined in the final weeks as choice focuses on the London parties. This time they are constantly on the main UK news, with analysis of a hung parliament. Together with social media, their exposure is bigger than ever.
ReplyDeleteAnd strong showings in the polls is self-reinforcing.. hopefully making for a bandwagon effect. Very encouraging so far.
I've got to endorse what Sean McNulty says - this blog by Scotland's other psephologist is definitely a contributory factor. For one thing it means, when people like me post the latest poll on a thread, it practically forces the media to publish the results rather than ignoring them.
ReplyDeleteWhen I get folk phoning me for poll info I direct them here. Scot Goes Pop is catchy and easy for them to remember. James alerts us to methodological changes by the pollsters as well, I guess he is too nice a chap to call it jiggery pokery.
DeleteMaybe Scottish Labour have made a big mistake pushing Jim Murphy and Slab so much. The perception in the minds of many voters I've spoken to is it seems to be it's a choice between Murphy and Nicola to work alongside Miliband rather than a choice between Nicola and Miliband.
ReplyDeleteJust one of many factors coming together in SNP favour.
DeleteThere was a theory after the 2010 GE that one reason G Brown did so well in Scotland was that there was a (reasonable) perception that he was being attacked in the English press for being Scottish. I do think that the SNP vote is bolstered by the same perception again for very good reason because the misogynistic, xenophobic attacks have been pretty extreme. I'm not saying that it is the main reason, but I do think the attacks actually help the SNP in Scotland. What they do in England, I am not sure, but it has to be a huge disconnect from what they saw in the debates.
ReplyDeleteThis belief about Gordon Brown has a lot of merit and does give us some clues to what is happening in Scotland.
DeleteA big group in any electorate is the don't knows, or switchers, people who are not loyal to any party, but will vote for whoever they think will make their own lives better.
However, in Scotland, something strange is happening to this group, because if they decide that the SNP is the party that will best suit them, (as many have) they then begin to read or watch people from the other parties calling them a virus, or thugs, or any number of vile names.
They are informed that Labour thinks they are gullible and easily led or have perhaps been duped into joining a vile neo-Nazi cult!
Human nature being what it is, this tends to make this previous floating voter, begin to wonder exactly what they have been floating in.
So as another election arrives, and they begin to look at what the all the parties are offering, as they always have, in the back of their minds they hear a little voice saying 'isn't this the people who basically called you an eedjit?'
'Didn't this guy say you were an English hating Nazi'?
So floating voters become solid SNP voters and they are very unlikely to ever float anywhere near the Labour Party ever again.
So all that's left to say is: Thanks Johann, Thanks Mr Cochrane, Thanks Mr Galloway, Thanks, thanks, thanks!
This happened exactly to me in 2011, when i voted SNP for the first time. After all thats happened during and since indyref, I willl never vote for any other party.
Delete"any other party" wouldn't you consider voting Green? The Greens would do the job of the SNP-Labour in Westminster by doing Green-SNP in holyrood, stopping the SNP from drifting to the right and giving them a conscience.
Deleteyes you are right, I would consider the greens, what I should have said was 'any unionist party again'. SNP for this election, Greens possibly for future Holyrood. I just joined SNP so probably will vote SNP again.
DeleteFollowing the release of the Monday’s polling the conservative (with a small ”c”) Election Forecast website http://electionforecast.co.uk has dramatically adjusted its SNP seats forecast. Their projection has been hanging on doggedly at around 40 with dips down to 37 and ambitious probings towards 42-43 from time to time.
ReplyDeleteThis morning Election Forecast is predicting 47 seats for the SNP. That’s a pretty big statement for that website as their modelling tends to knock 10%+ off the SNP for factors such as incumbency and plain old habit. Their primary polling input is YouGov so potentially they are starting to believe that the previously received evidence is actually going to stick.
YouGov tables
ReplyDeletehttp://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1yn2exbcsl/TheTimesResults_Scotland_150420_Website.pdf
Strikingly similar to the previous poll. YouGov again has the problem of having too many people born in rUK in the sample, which is then adjusted for by weighting. The problem is that I again suspect that the weighted share for people born outside the UK is too high, due to most immigrants (esp. Poles) not being registered and/or eligible to vote. This then overstates the SNP position slightly, because their VI is quite similar to those born in Scotland.
What I worry about is the elderly off-liners who are sitting in social isolation planning to vote as they have always done. Are they on these polls?
ReplyDeleteThese people are the easiest to get a hold of to poll. Usually well oversubscribed.
DeleteYes they are the 25% for Labour bjsalba! lol
ReplyDeleteThis ties in with what I'm seeing as well. Remodelling my predictor to take the latest Ashcroft polls into account, I'm seeing an additional (roughly) 5% swing from Labour to SNP in the last week or so. I'm now predicting the SNP to win 54-58 seats.
ReplyDeleteSure would be nice seeing all those grumpy, angry, tearful BritNat Red Tories on TV in the morning of May 8th
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