Monday, September 8, 2014

A primer for the forthcoming TNS-BMRB poll

Apparently the new TNS-BMRB referendum poll, which we were originally told to expect mid-week, has been brought forward.  I'm still not sure exactly when to expect it, because there's been no rhyme or reason to when they've released polls in the past - they've occasionally done it at weird times like the middle of the afternoon, but it'll probably be tonight.

Those of you who follow the increasingly confusing utterances of our old friend Mike "can't be arsed" Smithson may have spotted that he's been bigging up this poll to an absurd degree, almost according it Stalingrad-style significance as the poll which will finally settle the dispute over whether YouGov are right (meaning there has been a very dramatic and very recent swing to Yes) or Panelbase are right (meaning there has been relative stability over the last couple of weeks).  Let me be clear - that is absolute nonsense.  I don't say that because TNS-BMRB aren't a credible pollster, but simply because a large part of their fieldwork will be hopelessly out of date.  On past form, they will have started conducting interviews for this poll the best part of a month ago, not all that long after the first debate, when the media were still churning out fairy-tales about a "Darling win".  And of the aforementioned points about the swing YouGov are showing, the most important one is that it's very recent - meaning that even if it's 100% real, there's no way that TNS can realistically hope to pick it up.

I've no idea what the trend will be in this poll, but we can safely assume that any movement is likely to be modest, simply because of the dates.  The last poll showed Yes on their second-highest level of support of the campaign so far with the No-friendly TNS methodology - they were on 42% and No were on 58%.  Admittedly, the turnout-filtered figures were somewhat more Yes-friendly, putting Yes on 45% and No on 55%, but those figures have proved to be much more volatile over recent months.

A cynic might wonder if Smithson understands all of this perfectly well, and is only making a song and dance about TNS because he's already got a bogus "No comeback" narrative up his sleeve.  Incidentally, a more interesting point that he's made is that TNS always tack their referendum polling onto their much broader consumer surveys.  I wasn't previously aware of that, and it sets a small alarm bell ringing in my mind, because I seem to recall reading many years ago about a polling firm in the 1979 general election that produced far, far higher Conservative leads than anyone else, and were ultimately proved wrong.  They couldn't understand where they were going astray, because in principle their methodology was perfectly standard, but the suspicion was that because they were geared as a company towards consumer surveys, unconscious biases in the selection of people to interview were making themselves felt.

UPDATE (4.30pm) : The early hints about the TNS poll are contradicting some of what I said above, with one person in the know apparently describing the results as a "sensation".  See the comments section below for more details.

*  *  *

I think we have a new turbo-charged definition of the word 'fickle' -

London media yesterday : Over the next ten days, NOTHING matters apart from saving the most glorious political union the universe has ever seen.  NOTHING.

London media today : Royal baby!  Royal baby!  Royal baby!  Coo!  Coo!  Kate!  Wills!  Coo!

*  *  *

A special message for readers in Wales - a cross-party event in support of a Scottish Yes vote will take place outside the Senedd in Cardiff Bay on Saturday at 2pm.  Speakers will include Leanne Wood (leader of Plaid Cymru), Pippa Bartolotti (leader of the Green party in Wales), Ray Davies (a Labour councillor from Caerphilly), Amy Kitcher (a former Liberal Democrat candidate for both Westminster and the Welsh Assembly), Jamie Wallace (from the SNP), and Andrew Redmond Barr (from National Collective).  There will be live entertainment at the event, which will be positive and uplifting in nature to counteract the wall of media scare stories.

I must say it's particularly encouraging to see the support that Green politicians in both England and Wales have been giving to the Yes campaign - I initially feared they might prove to be slightly ambivalent.

*  *  *

I was out and about in a very sunny Glasgow on Saturday, once again sporting my elephant-sized Yes badge, and I happened to notice Bad Romance being performed in St Enoch's Square as I walked past.  I was facing the wrong way, so I've no idea if the real Zara Gladman was there in person, but I did wonder if it was entirely wise to be singing a song that goes : "No, no, no, no, no, oh no, gonnae no, oh no, no, no, no, I'm voting NO-OH-OH".  That may be just slightly too subtle a pro-Yes message for a random passer-by to fully appreciate!

Later on, I was on a train, and a slightly drunk young woman (I keep meeting them, but this one was Irish) asked me if I'd like to eat her chips for her.  I said 'no thanks', and she looked disappointed, but then she saw my Yes badge and her hopes were renewed.  "Yes?"

She was still talking about it a few minutes later : "Well, I've done my best to give them away - this guy says Yes, which I agree with him about by the way, but he says No to chips."  At that point, my heart finally melted, and I ate a couple of her chips, while listening to her brilliantly explain the referendum to a seven-year-old boy : "Suppose I told you that if you wanted to have crisps on a Friday, you could decide to have crisps on a Friday, would you say Yes to that?  Or would you say No, and choose to be part of a bigger group that might force you to eat haddock?"

54 comments:

  1. How out of date is the fieldwork on a typical TNS indyref poll?

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  2. Part of me wants the "new" TNS poll to be hard on Yes. It will send the No camp back towards complacency and the London media will concentrate even more on a royal baby.

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  3. Part of me wants the "new" TNS poll to be hard on Yes. It will send the No camp back towards complacency and the London media will concentrate even more on a royal baby.

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  4. Well last month TNS published on the 13th August, with fieldwork carried out between 23rd July - 7th August.

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  5. On GMS this morning wee Nicola tried to downplay (ever so slightly) the Panelbase poll on the basis that the field work done for it was a bit behind the YouGov poll. Is that accurate? My understanding was that they were effectively contemporaneous.

    Since the consensus is that the polls are now at the statistical tie stage, I doubt TNS will be much different, perhaps a little behind. I am much more interested in the upcoming Survation and ICM polls, and crucially polls being done THIS week as full scale panic sets in and the doom and gloom from the press is being outweighed by the self-destruction of the NO campaign as YES surge on with optimistic enthusiasm.

    How will we cope by Wednesday next week when there will be no more polls? Personally I can't bloody wait. I'd imagine that people will be queueing up to vote at 7am in the morning. I know that I will be.

    10 more sleeps...


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  6. "On GMS this morning wee Nicola tried to downplay (ever so slightly) the Panelbase poll on the basis that the field work done for it was a bit behind the YouGov poll. Is that accurate?"

    Kind of - I think both polls started at the same time but Panelbase finished earlier. But most people who respond to online surveys do so straight away, so that probably won't have made much difference.

    "Since the consensus is that the polls are now at the statistical tie stage, I doubt TNS will be much different, perhaps a little behind."

    No, I think it'll be quite a bit behind.

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  7. Mike Smithson is up to something he was tweeting yesterday about unweighted figures and now he hyped up TNS. Considering he is a gambler he probably wants to lengthen the odds on yes for his own purposes.

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  8. "No, I think it'll be quite a bit behind"
    James, can i ask as a novice what gives you the confidence it will show a lead?

    Does momentum really have ingredients to show further poll success's

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  9. Anon : It's likely to show a relatively substantial No lead simply because TNS have a No-friendly methodology, and because their fieldwork will be much more out of date than the recent polls from other firms.

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  10. James,

    This on the Guardian at 3:53pm ....

    "However, the Guardian’s Ewen MacAskill
    has been told there is little relief on
    the horizon for Alistair Darling and the
    no campaign: that the next poll to be
    published on Tuesday will confirm the trend. "

    ?

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  11. Thanks, Ian. We've been given false steers before, but hopefully this one will prove right. I think we have to accept there's going to be a No lead of some description in this poll, though.

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  12. Slightly off topic but on the same theme, what kind of accent does Fraser Nelson have ? He comes from the Malcolm Rifkind school of elocution, his speech patterns are all contorted. It's tortuous to listen to.



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  13. Well, the only way in which this TNS poll could conceivably settle the dispute over whether YouGov or Panelbase are right is showing a substantial Yes increase. That would make us question when did this bounce take place, but we'd be pretty sure that now there is now a statistical tie.

    Otherwise, we'd simply assume that the fieldwork is too outdated to be relevant and we'd confirm (to a certain extent) that the Yes bounce --if there has been one-- must have occurred in these last weeks.

    Best,

    Xabi

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  14. According to the guy from ukelections on twitter : @ian_a_jones: The new TNS poll on Scottish independence is a sensation. It's embargoed until midnight, but I doubt the media will wait that long.

    Sounds like it might be good for Yes

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  15. If these rumours are true, it's suddenly become obvious why TNS have brought publication forward.

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  16. Apart from the fact that they can drive public opinion, I have virtually no time for polls.

    This stems from having lived in the US and had a fried who ran a polling company about magazine circulation for 20-30 years. She was always under pressure from the big clients to change the questions (i.e. fiddle the figures). She never did.

    When she retired, the firm was bought up by the big guys and they did what they always wanted to do - fiddle the figures.

    The small magazines pulled out and the poll lost credibility. End of company.

    As I see it if Scotland goes independent, the big polling companies will not be very interested in such a small market.

    Why should they bother to be correct?

    By the way, how important are polls in small European countries? I'm thinking of places like Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Luxembourg, Holland?

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  17. I've got a friend in Finland - I sent her the video I took part in recently, and her response was basically "God, I hate polls!" So, I think they must be fairly common there.

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  18. Perhaps a swing to No, in the current climate, would also qualify as a "sensation"?

    Tuh, all this teasing.

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  19. ''London media yesterday : Over the next ten days, NOTHING matters apart from saving the most glorious political union the universe has ever seen. NOTHING !!!''

    I always find it amusing when English people speak of Scotland, a far away country they know little of and care even less for, just look up the anti Scotland rants of tv ''historian'' David Starkey, Rod Liddle, Simon Heffer, Max Hastings, disdain laced with contempt.


    They look upon Scotland as somewhere up north, an extension of England, an English county.They probably still think we've still got horse drawn trams, gas lit street lamps, steam locomotives, outside toilets, etc etc.


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  20. If these rumours are true, as generally they have been, and TNS shows a good Yes lead it will be extremely interesting because I think we will have the economic crisis that has already begun today ( millions wiped off Scottish financial companies, fall in the pound etc.)-- and which we might have expected to follow a Yes vote in ten days time-- happen before our eyes and before the vote has even taken place

    I have no idea how that will impact on anything vote-wise but it will be good that people have a chance to see and digest the impact of the new economic landscape they are in fact voting for.

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    Replies
    1. The way I see it markets are now valuing in the prospect of independence. Had there been proper contingency plans from WM the uncertainty would have been smaller, but overall moves are not huge.

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  21. Based on my records, the best TNS have ever had for yes is 50.6% Yes ex DK (early 2008 and Aug/sept 2011).

    And no wonder - they knock on your door.

    Refusal to respond seems to have been a huge problem for them since 2007; more so that any other pollster. Yes people just don't want to do their poll.

    So any gap closure here would be great.

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  22. "If these rumours are true, as generally they have been, and TNS shows a good Yes lead"

    I haven't seen any rumours about a Yes lead (let alone a good one), only what's mentioned above about the "same trend" and "a sensation". Given that No had a double-digit lead in last month's poll, an outright Yes lead is very unlikely.

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  23. @Expat
    Where have you seen that TNS has a Yes lead? Only rumours I've seen are the guy from ukpolitics quoted above, and some Yes guy on Twitter (who seems to be an ordinary punter, so I assume he's just guessing) predicting that it'll show a "swing to Yes".

    A Yes lead seems astonishingly unlikely if the fieldwork is so old.

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  24. @Expat.
    As the financial guy on BBC News 24 said this morning, the run on the pound has nothing to do with Scotland being a success as an indy country.
    I reckon Osbourne will have to make a statement re CU if it continues.

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  25. Re all the registration to vote update.

    All Yes Morning Press Briefing

    Some interesting facts from the ground.

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  26. I reckon Osbourne will have to make a statement re CU if it continues.

    Also, if the UK government doesn't take action to calm the markets it will likely push people to Yes.

    A government is supposed to protect the economy, not stand by idly. There are a lot of likely No voters in Scotland being seriously let down by the UK government right now; is it really wise for the latter to do that when polls are so close?

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  27. Certainly, a hallmark of this campaign has been, astonishingly, unionists threatening their own supporters.

    If you vote for the union (but Scotland overall votes Yes), we will punish you. Be it border posts or nae poond.

    I've never come across such a campaigning approach before.

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  28. I know quite a few people from England who've been swayed to Yes by this, i.e. being threatened by their own (UK) government. Of course that makes them see Holyrood as looking after their interests and not Westminster.

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  29. It was Ewan Macaskel in the Guardian saying TNS poll would 'bring little comfort to Darling' that made me assume that meant another Yes lead. However James Vickers was extremely accurate in his advance leaks before so I quite agree 52 No 48 Yes seems more likely. It will be enough though for that I assume would confirm YouGov's trend is real.

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  30. We could all be wrong and they have done the fieldwork relatively sooner than before? I am expecting a large no lead though. Based on skiers common sense theories.

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  31. Scottish Skier
    "If you vote for the union (but Scotland overall votes Yes), we will punish you. Be it border posts or nae poond."

    Don't quite understand your logic here. If things get really bad for Scotland along the lines suggested in today's New York Times (' the pain of Spain without the sunshine') surely everyone suffers, not just No voters?

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  32. surely everyone suffers, not just No voters?

    That's what I mean. I know people who planned to vote No, but are now Yes in a large part due to being let down by the UK government. These people have homes and jobs here and wanted both governments to pre-negotiate, particularly as Westminster is still taking their taxes. The fact that Westminster refused here has really angered them. Add in the threats and...

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  33. Incredibly busy at the Yes shop between campaigning. We are, yet again, hitting the problem of running low on posters, stickers, wee blue books, yes wristbands and other materials because they are flying out the shop as soon as they are restocked. Some haggling and logistics to be done in the area but, rest assured, there will be no halt to the supply.

    Much laughter today at the ROYAL BABY! hysteria. Perhaps the unborn babe knows what on earth Osborne, little Ed and Clegg are proposing on just the same powers or more panic powers, because the No campaign sure as hell don't have a clue. LOL

    Somewhat unfortunate that that a massive chunk of the older demographic will have almost certainly voted already using their postal votes as that is the 'target market' for Royal Baby hysteria.

    Those Britnat twits shrieking about financial apocalypse (presumably the Eggpocalype has run it's awesome course) clearly know nothing about the truth of the matter. They would do well to read up on it before spamming this site.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/finding-sense-to-make-it-work/

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  34. Yeah, markets already aligning to likely YES, though there has been gross misrepresentation that only Scottish companies value has fallen. A quick check of a whole range of UK companies shows this to be fallacious.

    TNS poll seems to be positive. Expect odds on independence to fall further later in. Currently NO at 1.43 on Betfair was 1.2 not so long ago...should hit 1.5-1.6 with another close poll and the nearer we get to next week the odds will narrow further.

    A lay of no or a back of yes should produce a quick easy profit regardless of final result with a subsequent trade.

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  35. Reference the Lady Alba tune, there was a couple on the BBC the other day during a referendum programme that did actually think it was a pro-union song. The mind boggles!

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  36. Expat: as you will know that pain in Spain drivel is all based on the assumption that iScotland wouldn't have a currency.

    I am now certain that you are operating out of NoBetter HQ, they have been punting this dross all day.

    But keep up trying to tell us we can't use sterling, everyone knows it's lies so massively beneficial to the yes campaign.

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  37. Hearing 41% Y 41 N with 18% undecided.

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  38. After all the crap and lies from No Better Together, I think the GIRUY vote will be huge.
    Nemo me impune laccesit.

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  39. LOL there must be about 20 different rumours on this TNS poll currently doing the rounds on twitter. Result night speculation will be manic!

    Most reliable hints seem to be it being roughly 50/50 on rounded figures, which still represents massive surge to YES and in line with other polls. However, these hints also suggest surprisingly high number of DK's, but this may have something to do with the method of survey. Many people on the door step will just not give an opinion, even when pushed.

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  40. It's 96/4 to Yes, according to my cousin's friend's budgie. He saw it on Facebook.

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  41. according to my cousin's friend's budgie. He saw it on Facebook

    Are you the budgie didn't tweet it and now its flying around?

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  42. We could all be wrong and they have done the fieldwork relatively sooner than before? I am expecting a large no lead though. Based on skiers common sense theories.

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  43. Can this be a legitimate leak?

    https://twitter.com/tmlbk/status/509033643365658624

    Best,

    Xabi

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  44. Who is that guy? He's been posting supposed snippets from the poll for the last half hour.

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  45. jimmy, we'd be able to use sterling in the way a five year old can use a knife - clumsily and under supervision :-)

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  46. So if UK government wishes to settle the markets rather than continue feeding Project Fear, all that's needed is to accept that in a divorce the assets are shared (and the debt): ongoing currency union by another name (to save face) and a firewall along Hadrian's Wall to protect each side from the other losing the plot and spoiling their patch. Yes, that would leave 90% of currency power south of the border, but what's new?


    This is about so much more than just the currency as one lever of macroeconomic control. For once, those with no currency will have the same power as the magnate on 18th September.

    "Little by little the night turns around./ Counting the leaves which tremble at dawn."

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  47. TNS poll images are bound to be real, too time-consuming and not worth faking them.

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  48. Tom Crompton has an excellent article on page 14 of the latest Transition Free Press ("the what?!") http://issuu.com/transitionfreepress/docs/tfp06_2014-09_issuu where he outlines how social processes are based on values, and how choosing and changing our values can enable us to change the world. Focusing on currency and accumulation (as if they were what really mattered) takes us down a completely different pathway - as a society and as individuals - compared to focusing on care and social justice.

    Hope that helped the time pass while waiting on the poll!

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  49. It is official and it is 49/51 or 50/50 depending how you round up or down.

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  50. We could all be wrong and they have done the fieldwork relatively sooner than before? I am expecting a large no lead though. Based on skiers common sense theories.

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