I think at this time last year I managed a decent-length post on this topic, but I'm in one of those frames of mind where I think I'd struggle to string together a decent sentence, let alone seven proper paragraphs. Perhaps a numbered list of the main points will do to be getting on with!
1) Still don't quite get Norway, but it was obvious even to me it was going to win. The 'most points ever' thing I do find slightly odd.
2) I'm surprised and thrilled that Iceland finished second - when I predicted fourth place for them last night I actually worried that might be a touch on the high side. It genuinely is one of my all-time favourite Eurovision songs, so I'm glad Europe went for it (unlike some of my other favourites down the years!).
3) On second thoughts, maybe I wasn't so foolish in voting for Out of Control in the Greek national final!
4) The notion that Graham Norton and Andrew Lloyd-Webber were putting about that 'this is a music contest again'...well, any UK Eurovision fan will always be grateful for some positive spin at last, but it might be a touch premature in this case. The result tonight was actually remarkably similar to 2006 - a worthy runaway winner from western Europe masking the huge amount of political voting that was still going on. Romania and Moldova swapped votes, Andorra voted for Spain, Cyprus voted for Greece, Finland voted for Estonia (their neighbours and linguistic cousins), and it was pretty close to business as usual in the Balkans. I'm sure there were plenty of other examples I can't think of off the top of my head.
5) I wanted Paddy O'Connell to succeed Terry Wogan - but I was wrong. Graham Norton was excellent tonight, with exactly the right blend of cynicism, absurdity and positivity where it was warranted. It was only on the latter element that Terry Wogan has been found wanting in recent years.
6) The one area in which Norton was inferior to Wogan was in his failure to anticipate the most predictable political voting. Wogan would have predicted the destination of Andorra and Cyprus' douze points several seconds in advance - whereas Norton was seriously wondering if Andorra might be Patricia Kaas fans!
7) Norton also tried to maintain the tension for the last half-hour of voting on the question of whether the UK would stay in the top five, even though that was never in doubt. What was very close was the race for fourth place between Turkey and the UK, but he seemed totally oblivious to that!
8) As a UK supporter, I thought we had a genuine chance for all of about twenty seconds. When the first set of votes gave us ten points and Norway twelve it looked possible - but as soon as we got zero from the second set of votes I knew it was going to be a patchy night.
9) Why, oh why, oh why didn't I take Keith Mills seriously to task this year rather than last year over his anti-UK agenda? His initial prediction for It's My Time yesterday was 16th-20th, which he very generously hardened up to 16th in his final call. And what do you know? He's brazenly glossing over the fact that he got it so spectacularly wrong. Now there's a surprise.
10) Talking of Mr Mills, he does have this tendency to utterly convince himself that something very improbable is true and then flog the point to death in spite of a mass of contradictory evidence. A good example this year was his assumption that Lloyd-Webber was on the stage solely to impress the juries - from which he concluded it was likely to 'backfire' because the voting public would dislike it. But where is the slightest evidence that was ever the UK's thinking? For my money Lloyd-Webber was on stage to impress both the juries and the public with his celebrity - whether it worked or not I don't know, but I've little doubt that was always the idea.
11) Alsou was a good choice as host (pity she didn't get a chance to sing in place of the unfunny interludes), and I actually quite liked the intervention from space. Wasn't that done when the contest was in Latvia as well?
12) I actually made two slightly different predictions last night (one on Politicalbetting.com and one here), and I should have stuck with the first one because it was more accurate! I got last-minute cold feet about the UK's potential for a top five placing.
13) I'm surprised how poorly both Portugal and Malta did.
14) In the end I simply couldn't decide - so I voted for both Portugal and Estonia! At least Estonia received the decent placing they richly deserved.
So here's to Oslo 2010. As I hinted above, I hope the EBU look at tweaking the voting system a little further. For one thing, what's the point of having ordinary members of the public (ie. potential political voters) on the national juries when the public can vote by televote anyway?
Showing posts with label Jade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jade. Show all posts
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Saturday, May 16, 2009
My prediction for Eurovision final (Saturday)
I fared reasonably well with my top three prediction last year (I got the top two right, and my tip for third came sixth) so I'm going to be a bit more ambitious this time round and attempt the top five. Almost certainly a recipe for disaster, for as much as there's a red-hot favourite this year, the lower placings are very difficult to predict. For a long time I'd been feeling confident that, with both an extremely favourable draw and the Andrew Lloyd-Webber factor, the UK were set fair for a top five placing, but I'm now starting to get cold feet about that after the reports from today's rehearsals. Inexplicably, the juries vote after the final rehearsal, meaning that 50% of the vote is settled on the basis of something the audience don't actually get to see (can't be justified, surely?), so a less-than-perfect performance today may well have dented Jade's chances significantly. So, with that in mind, here's my wild stab in the dark...
Winners - Norway
2nd - Greece
3rd - Bosnia-Herzegovina
4th - Iceland
5th - Portugal
Possible dark horses - UK, Malta
I know I said last night that I thought we were heading back to Athens, and I'd stand by that if only Greece hadn't received such a significantly worse draw than Norway. I still personally don't fully understand the appeal of the Norwegian song, but there are times when a consensus of opinion is so strong you just can't ignore it.
I still can't make up my mind who I'll be voting for myself - with my personal rule of always voting for an entry entirely sung in a language other than English, it'll be either Portugal or Estonia, but on the basis of the semi-final performances they're quite evenly-matched for me. But my heart will be with the superb Icelandic entry all the way.
Of course, the fascination of tomorrow night will be to see how the new voting system works in practice. I suspect that although the political voting patterns will be somewhat diluted, they'll still be very noticeable. Let's not forget that Greece and Cyprus used to regularly swap 12 points even in the days when the voting was 100% jury.
Winners - Norway
2nd - Greece
3rd - Bosnia-Herzegovina
4th - Iceland
5th - Portugal
Possible dark horses - UK, Malta
I know I said last night that I thought we were heading back to Athens, and I'd stand by that if only Greece hadn't received such a significantly worse draw than Norway. I still personally don't fully understand the appeal of the Norwegian song, but there are times when a consensus of opinion is so strong you just can't ignore it.
I still can't make up my mind who I'll be voting for myself - with my personal rule of always voting for an entry entirely sung in a language other than English, it'll be either Portugal or Estonia, but on the basis of the semi-final performances they're quite evenly-matched for me. But my heart will be with the superb Icelandic entry all the way.
Of course, the fascination of tomorrow night will be to see how the new voting system works in practice. I suspect that although the political voting patterns will be somewhat diluted, they'll still be very noticeable. Let's not forget that Greece and Cyprus used to regularly swap 12 points even in the days when the voting was 100% jury.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
I can spot an anti-UK agenda when I see one
If ever I worried my cynicism about Keith Mills of All Kinds of Everything fame went a little too far, he's yet again set my mind at rest that it doesn't with his latest unfunny diatribe about a UK Eurovision entry. Anyone who has read the political posts on this blog will instantly understand why I'm ideally qualified to spot an anti-UK agenda when I see one (ie. I've got one myself), and Keith ticks all the boxes. I did actually make that point to him last year, and he responded that it was complete nonsense, citing his support for the 2005 UK entry (Touch My Fire by Javine) as proof. I do recall that, but I have to say I'm not convinced. The impression I get is that if the UK comes up with an excellent entry that happens to be to his own taste, he's swept along with his enthusiasm for it (as I think all Eurovision fans are with a good song regardless of country). But in every other circumstance, he reverts to his comfortable default position which is that the UK song is unremittingly awful, the weakest in years, no-one in Ireland will vote for it, a contender for last place, etc, etc. These prejudiced 'blind spots' in his annual analysis are such a pity, because in many other ways Keith has the best coverage of the contest on the internet. Fortunately, his regular co-bloggers Andrew and Peter are free of Keith's agenda and both see the UK as a potential winner. For me, not quite - but definite top five.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
It's my time...
Or rather it really is the time for this particular blog, which tries rather unnaturally to be simultaneously about both the Eurovision Song Contest and Scottish politics from a nationalist perspective. So what could be better - or more improbable - than a UK Eurovision selection final featuring a cameo by none other than the SNP's Pete Wishart MP? OK, there probably are quite a few things that would be better, but at least it allows me to marry both subjects in the same post for once!
So Jade goes to Moscow! The outcome I desperately wanted, but certainly wasn't predicting. But the revelation of the night for me was how beautifully the twins performed It's My Time, and for the first time I started to understand Lloyd-Webber's point about how special it can be when two close siblings sing in harmony. It was a subtler performance than the other two acts, and in a perverse way there's a little bit of me that's disappointed they won't get the chance to repeat that performance on the Eurovision stage. But in any case they thoroughly deserved their second place on the night.
The other delight about the outcome is that we can now look forward to four solid months of Keith Mills smugly telling us the UK have no chance because our singer "oozes far more confidence that her limited vocal range would support". Charmin'. Perhaps we should swap her for the "almost perfect" Chris Doran? (OK, that's maybe a bit too catty even for me!)
Final thought - ever since I heard the title of the song (which is growing on me nicely, by the way) I've been wondering what the 'it's my time' lyric reminded me of from a Eurovision point of view. It suddenly struck me a couple of hours ago - it's this song...
That, for the uninitiated, is Evelin Samuel's Diamond of Night, the 1999 Estonian entry. Very different type of song of course (it's practically a lullaby), but it's one of my all-time favourites, and I think at this stage we'd probably settle for a repeat of its sixth-placed finish! It also had the distinction, as Terry Wogan pointed out in his commentary, of being the last Eurovision song of the twentieth century, since it was the last in the running order that year. That is, except for those people who think the twentieth century ended on 31 December, 2000!
So Jade goes to Moscow! The outcome I desperately wanted, but certainly wasn't predicting. But the revelation of the night for me was how beautifully the twins performed It's My Time, and for the first time I started to understand Lloyd-Webber's point about how special it can be when two close siblings sing in harmony. It was a subtler performance than the other two acts, and in a perverse way there's a little bit of me that's disappointed they won't get the chance to repeat that performance on the Eurovision stage. But in any case they thoroughly deserved their second place on the night.
The other delight about the outcome is that we can now look forward to four solid months of Keith Mills smugly telling us the UK have no chance because our singer "oozes far more confidence that her limited vocal range would support". Charmin'. Perhaps we should swap her for the "almost perfect" Chris Doran? (OK, that's maybe a bit too catty even for me!)
Final thought - ever since I heard the title of the song (which is growing on me nicely, by the way) I've been wondering what the 'it's my time' lyric reminded me of from a Eurovision point of view. It suddenly struck me a couple of hours ago - it's this song...
That, for the uninitiated, is Evelin Samuel's Diamond of Night, the 1999 Estonian entry. Very different type of song of course (it's practically a lullaby), but it's one of my all-time favourites, and I think at this stage we'd probably settle for a repeat of its sixth-placed finish! It also had the distinction, as Terry Wogan pointed out in his commentary, of being the last Eurovision song of the twentieth century, since it was the last in the running order that year. That is, except for those people who think the twentieth century ended on 31 December, 2000!
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Who needs the miracle?
Something of a bombshell on the eve of the UK's Eurovision selection - the BBC website is reporting that Andrew Lloyd-Webber thinks that one of the three remaining acts would definitely be the wrong choice, and he apparently feels so strongly about it that he wouldn't even travel to Moscow for the contest if that act were to be selected. "I really can't be a miracle-worker," he says.
This is extremely odd. Of the acts he's expressed severe doubts about over the weeks, all have been picked off one by one. Admittedly he did appear to have some slight reservations about Mark last week, but surely not enough to imply a need for "miracles"? So he must surely be talking of the twins - in which case it might well be fair comment, but the question must be why has he been so overtly championing them thus far? He's repeatedly gushed about how "something magical" happens when they sing in harmony. Perhaps not the best choice of words if he was hoping to avoid a stint as Merlin.
Of course, there's another possibility - he could simply have concluded that one of the acts is particularly ill-suited to the song he's written. Either way, I'm confident he's not talking about Jade. I just wish I could be so confident she is going to win tomorrow night!
This is extremely odd. Of the acts he's expressed severe doubts about over the weeks, all have been picked off one by one. Admittedly he did appear to have some slight reservations about Mark last week, but surely not enough to imply a need for "miracles"? So he must surely be talking of the twins - in which case it might well be fair comment, but the question must be why has he been so overtly championing them thus far? He's repeatedly gushed about how "something magical" happens when they sing in harmony. Perhaps not the best choice of words if he was hoping to avoid a stint as Merlin.
Of course, there's another possibility - he could simply have concluded that one of the acts is particularly ill-suited to the song he's written. Either way, I'm confident he's not talking about Jade. I just wish I could be so confident she is going to win tomorrow night!
Monday, January 26, 2009
Jade Remains Slight Favourite in 'Your Country Needs You' Betting
Well, if the bookies are to be believed, there's still a modicum of hope - in spite of Jade finishing (presumably) third in the public vote on Saturday, she remains marginal favourite for the ticket to Moscow on the Betfair market ahead of Mark, with the twins as the outsiders. But before anyone comes out with that old chestnut 'the bookies aren't often wrong', I must have slept through a heavily pregnant Katie Price singing for the UK in Kyiv in 2005. And, for that matter, Anthony Costa the year after. And Justin Hawkins the year after that. And the Revelations the year after that (if only!). And, in particular, Ulrika Jonsson's victory in Celebrity Big Brother last week must have just been a particularly bad dream.
Conclusion - the bookies get it wrong all the time. They may still make an obscene profit, but it doesn't change the fact that they get it wrong all the time!
Conclusion - the bookies get it wrong all the time. They may still make an obscene profit, but it doesn't change the fact that they get it wrong all the time!
Eurovision season upon us again
Yep, the title says it all, so I suppose it's high time I updated this most utterly ridiculous of all blogs! And of course, I could hardly fail to be excited by the prospect of Andrew Lloyd-Webber and Diane Warren composing the UK entry. The only downside is the casting-show format, which means the chances are that we'll end up with a terrific song (hope I'm not speaking too soon) but yet another inexperienced artist. Admittedly, if the BBC had opted for an experienced singer it would have amounted to a classic French-style internal selection, and thus sacrificed the unprecedented positive publicity the Eurovision Song Contest is currently receiving in the UK.
And of course, the other saving grace is that there just happens to be one singer in the selection who is up to the standard (and then some) of a seasoned performer - the truly extraordinary Jade. But will the 'Great British Public' (aye, right) have the eminent good sense to pick her? After she finished in the danger zone on Saturday, I must say I have no confidence whatsoever. Even before that, I had my doubts - a primarily female voting audience (which seems to be standard for talent/reality shows) will always tend to go for the 'phwoar' option (Mark) or the 'cutesy fairy-tale' option (the twins).
But what do you think? Does the obvious strongest contender still have a chance of booking her rightful place in Moscow? Pointless question, I know, because no-one ever comments on this blog except to point out that Vânia Fernandes is not very pretty. (Evidently there are those who would disagree!)
And of course, the other saving grace is that there just happens to be one singer in the selection who is up to the standard (and then some) of a seasoned performer - the truly extraordinary Jade. But will the 'Great British Public' (aye, right) have the eminent good sense to pick her? After she finished in the danger zone on Saturday, I must say I have no confidence whatsoever. Even before that, I had my doubts - a primarily female voting audience (which seems to be standard for talent/reality shows) will always tend to go for the 'phwoar' option (Mark) or the 'cutesy fairy-tale' option (the twins).
But what do you think? Does the obvious strongest contender still have a chance of booking her rightful place in Moscow? Pointless question, I know, because no-one ever comments on this blog except to point out that Vânia Fernandes is not very pretty. (Evidently there are those who would disagree!)
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